Two weeks coming off a loss is a long time to sit around and stew. That’s what Nebraska has done after its loss to Michigan. Two long weeks, with no one in an opposing jersey to pop.
The wait is nearly over. Michigan State comes to Memorial Stadium on Saturday as an 11.5-point underdog.
One stat sticks with us: Michigan State allowed 45 points at USC on Sept. 20. That’s a ton, even in modern college football. If Sparty’s defense is vulnerable, Nebraska quarterback Dylan Raiola might be the guy to exploit it.
For every game, we will give you three reasons the Huskers will win and three reasons they won’t. The line says this game will be somewhat one-sided, but we’re not buying.
The game means more to the Huskers
Simply put, Nebraska needs this game in this season of great promise. OK, losing to Michigan wasn’t the worst thing ever. That the Huskers could have won the game made the defeat tougher to swallow.
Losing to Michigan State would sting much more than the loss to Michigan. Nebraska is *expected* to beat Sparty, and that has nothing to do with the point spread.
If Nebraska is indeed in a Big Ten tier higher than Sparty, well, you gotta win the game. The key for the Huskers on Saturday: Urgency.
It’s not a one-game season, but if Nebraska doesn’t win, this season is going to feel as if it’s starting to slip away.
Nebraska’s offensive line will be motivated to atone for its subpar showing against Michigan. / Kenny Larabee, KLIN
Nebraska’s offensive line
This might be the biggest area of concern coming off the Michigan loss. The lack of protection for Raiola was alarming, as were the Wolverines’ three long touchdown runs.
Improving the offensive line has been a point of emphasis. Players and coaches know improvement is necessary, whether it’s through personnel or scheme.
On what is expected to be a windy day in Lincoln, the Huskers’ running game will be vital. Raiola’s short passing game should be more effective in the wind than trying for long strikes.
Huskers’ pass defense
Nebraska leads the nation in passing yards allowed. The nation, not just the Big Ten. Opponents are averaging 75.8 yards per game. The Huskers haven’t allowed a passing touchdown this season.
This week, Nebraska faces a talented quarterback in Aidan Chiles, who has completed 68.6 percent of his passes. The Huskers’ secondary, aided by the starting role of Donovan Jones, faces a challenge. But Nebraska defensive coordinator John Butler said this week that three of his most talented players are in the defensive backfield.
The defensive backfield will be tested. If the Huskers win, expect a turnover from the secondary plus their usual blanket coverage.
Spartans’ defensive line
Nebraska head coach Matt Rhule talked this week about improving the offensive line, to help spark the running game. Sparty saw a tried and true blueprint when rival Michigan handled the Huskers’ running game and gave Raiola trouble.
Expect Sparty to focus on stopping the run, with blitzing, and really getting after Raiola in passing situations. This, truly, is the way to beat Nebraska. Take away the run and pressure Raiola and maybe force him into mistakes.
That was Michigan State’s focus all week.
Michigan State quarterback Aidan Chiles can run and throw the ball effectively. / Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images
Aiden Chiles
The nimble quarterback is a combination of speed and touch, the kind of player who has given Nebraska trouble this season. Cincinnati’s Brendan Sorsby and Michigan’s Bryce Underwood come to mind.
Chiles is in his second year as Sparty’s starter. He is 70-of-102 passing (68.6 percent) for 858 yards, nine touchdowns and one interception. If the Huskers don’t seriously account for Chiles, this is the pathway for a Spartans victory.
Chiles isn’t afraid to run. He has gained 154 yards in four games and has two rushing touchdowns. He can really hurt the Huskers by scrambling for key first downs. With two injured starters on the offensive line, Chiles’ scrambling might be necessary.
It’s Sparty’s season, too
While Nebraska fans sense the importance of ending a one-game losing streak — everyone remembers the Huskers’ four-game slide in the middle of last season — so do Michigan State fans.
Sparty fans have big hopes for this season — sound familiar, Husker fans? — and they also are riding a one-game losing streak.
Michigan State looks at this game as a season-saver and will play accordingly.
The term “must-win game” is dramatically overused. This is not such a game for Nebraska. However, if the Huskers want to get back on the winning path they believe they are capable of, this game is enormous.
Don’t think for a minute this will be a one-sided outcome. For Sparty, this is a redemption game, too, after their loss at USC.
Nebraska 27, Michigan State 23.
Season record: 4-0.
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