Weekly US Dollar Index (DXY)
The dollar broke for its worst week since April on the same repricing. Gold caught the other side and both held the move into the weekend. That kind of follow-through across two full sessions tells you the repricing was real, not a headline reaction that fades by Monday.
Central banks have been buying reserves for months and that bid has not let up. The floor was already in place before Thursday. That constant central bank demand is the one thing that kept the bears from running this market into the ground all year. Once the rate pressure backed off, gold did not have to go find buyers. They were already there. The only thing missing was a catalyst, and the payrolls miss was more than enough.
Fed Minutes Are the Next Trigger
The June 16-17 FOMC minutes come out Wednesday, July 8. That release is the only thing this week that can move the rate conversation. The Fed held steady at that meeting but the dot plot still pointed to at least one more hike in 2026.
What matters is the tone of the discussion. Did committee members express doubt about the need for further tightening, or did everyone fall in line behind inflation? If there was any division at that meeting, the cracks in the rate case predated Thursday’s data. That gives the repricing more credibility and gold more room to run.
If the minutes still read hawkish with no dissent, the September hike odds stop falling and gold consolidates near current levels. Traders who bought the Thursday reversal will not panic out on one hawkish set of minutes, but they will not add either. The late July FOMC meeting becomes the next decision point, and the market does not want to sit idle that long without direction.
