MSFT: -30% With Record Earnings. Here’s the Line in the Sand. for NASDAQ:MSFT by ImmaculateTony
What I’m seeing
MSFT peaked ~$555 in late 2025 and flushed to $349 on June 25 worst month for the name since 2000. Current bounce to ~$390 sits inside a confirmed Weinstein Stage 4 downtrend on the weekly:
– Price well below the 30-week SMA
– Descending upper fractal trendline intact since the highs
-Lower fractal broken breakdown confirmed
– ATR-multiple sell signal fired near the Nov 2025 peak; no buy signal since
– Anchored VWAP (from highest-volume node at the top) sits ~$403 price below it means the average buyer from the peak is underwater. That’s overhead supply on every rally.
Why it matters
The fundamentals did NOT cause this. Revenue +18% YoY, EPS beating every quarter, $25.6B quarterly FCF. The entire drawdown was multiple compression P/E de-rated from ~38x to ~23x on AI capex ROI fear. That’s a narrative repricing, not an earnings problem. Which means the chart, not the income statement, tells you when it’s over.
The levels:
$356 — line in the sand (Fib 100%). Held the June 25 flush. Lose it convincingly → next cluster $344–320
$398–403 — first real test. Weekly SMA20 + anchored VWAP confluence
$424–430 — prior consolidation / gap resistance above
What I expect
Default assumption in Stage 4: rallies get sold. The $349→$390 bounce has proven nothing yet.
Two conditions, no predictions:
Weekly reclaim + hold above $403 = first real evidence the repricing is done. Until then, this is a bounce inside a downtrend.
Convincing loss of $356 = repricing isn’t finished. Retest is not off the table.
Strong business earns the watchlist.
Patience is a position. Not financial advice educational breakdown of my process.
