It’s not the World Cup that’s on everyone mind at the moment, but we’re currently in a qualification window for the 2027 FIBA World Cup, which means international basketball squads from all around the globe are locked into battle.
Tonight, Group A of the Americas region will close out its First Round with the USA squaring-off with Mexico. The States are 4-1 after a narrow 82-81 victory over the Dominican Republic back on July 4.
Let’s preview tonight’s game in Zacatecas City, Mexico with the help of some of some odds and lines on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
United States vs. Mexico prediction, preview
You might’ve seen highlights last week of reigning NBA MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander suiting up for Canada in a qualifier against Puerto Rico. Unfortunately, this tilt doesn’t quite have the same level of star power. While SGA, Dillon Brooks and Andrew Nembhard were more than willing to spend a weekend an hour outside of Toronto, getting big-name American players to sign up for games in the DR and Mexico in a non-Olympic year was a much more difficult ask. That’s how you end up with a USA roster that is headlined by the likes of Mike James, Torrey Craig and Jay Huff.
The 35-year-old James was pivotal in the United States’ comeback victory over the Dominican Republic on Saturday, logging 32.3 minutes and posting a 15-point, 13-assist double-double. James last played in North America in 2020-2021 with the Brooklyn Nets, averaging 7.7 points over 13 games. Terry Taylor, formerly of the Pacers, Bulls and Kings, was the team’s second-leading scorer with 14 points, while Craig chipped in with 12 points and nine rebounds.
It’s just very hard to get a read on teams in this tournament. First Round qualification has technically been going on in three different windows since late November, and the turnover on the USA’s roster has been significant — easily more significant than any other squad in its group. For instance, the States slaughtered Mexico 123-88 back on March 1, yet that was a collection of players led by Elfrid Payton, David Roddy and Brandon Knight.
I’d expect the USA to win over Mexico again, though barely squeaking past the Dominican Republic isn’t a result that inspires a lot of confidence. That said, the States have now had a full-game to gel as a team, and all indications point towards the DR being a much tougher opponent than the Mexicans. Yes, Mexico is 3-2 in qualifying and are coming off a 19-point victory against Nicaragua on Friday, but the Dominicans are 38.5-point favorites versus that same Nicaragua squad this evening on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
United States vs. Mexico pick, best bet
Best Bet: USA -9.5 (-120)
The USA took down Mexico by 35 points four months ago. It was a different collection of former NBA journeyman taking the floor that night, but I’d expect a similar result from a similarly constructed roster. I mean, all they have to do is win by 10.
