After two tough losses in a row, the Atlanta Braves will head to PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates.
Tonight’s matchup will feature newly returned Hurston Waldrep against reigning Cy Young Award winner, Paul Skenes. Both pitchers have something to prove. Waldrep is likely looking to show he is fully good to go, and Skenes is looking to prove his 3.62 ERA is a fluke.
Skenes is clearly having a down year by his standards when comes to ERA. In his previous two seasons his ERA stayed within 0.01 point of each other with a 1.96 and 1.97 respectively. However, it does appear that he has been a bit unlucky. If you look at his expected ERA (xERA) of 2.76 it is not far off from his previous two seasons of 2.65 and 2.50.
Skenes has been plagued by a terrible left on base percentage. In his previous two seasons his strand rate was 82.4 percent in 2025 and 85.6 percent in 2024. This season his strand rate is 65.8 percent. Odds are we could see his ERA go down just based on that.
One area that could be good for the Braves is that Skenes’ fastball velocity has dropped every single month this season. In April his average fastball was 97.4 MPH and so far in July it has been 96.3. If we go back to the start of his career his velocity has gone down every season. In 2024 there were months when he was averaging 99.3 MPH.
Skenes Fastball velocity by season MLB.com
It should be no shock the Braves have struggled against Skenes in their limited sample sizes against him. Five players on the roster have faced Skenes before and none of them have faced Skenes more than three at-bats. Albies has one hit in two at-bats, and Olson has one hit in three. Riley, Smith, and Yastrzemski are all hitless.
Waldrep will be making his third appearance and second as a starter this season. In his last start he lasted 5.1 innings where he gave up five hits to include a HR, three earned runs, a walk, a HBP, and accumulated four strikeouts. It should be noted that all three of those runs happened in the first inning and he was able to settle down and have a solid start overall. In his lone relief appearance, he went 2.0 innings and struggled with command, giving up four walks, but did not give up a run.
The only player on the Pirates that Waldrep has faced in the past is Brandon Lowe, and surely, he remembers it because it was only one at-bat and Lowe took him deep for a solo shot.
On paper it appears that the Pirates have the upper hand as they usually do with Skenes on the mound, but Skenes just came off of his worst start of his career where he gave up seven earned runs in 4.0 innings against the Phillies, and he gave up four earned runs in the start before that. If the Braves were to ever want to face Skenes, now is the time.
Waldrep is going to have to be on his A game. The Pirates have scored the fourth most runs in MLB since the start of June, and the fourth most in the last two weeks. They are staying steady as an offensive force.
First pitch is at 6:40 EDT.
Game Time: Tuesday, July 7th, 6:40 pm EDT
Location: PNC Park, , Pittsburgh, PA
Watch: BravesVision, Gray TV
Radio/Audio: 680 AM / 93.7 FM The Fan
