Neil Parker
• Betting Analyst
16+ years betting experience
Updated:
Jul 7, 2026 , 01:19 PM ET
• 4 min read
Chicago prevails in a high-scoring clash at Camden Yards.
Photo By – Reuters Connect. Chicago Cubs third baseman Alex Bregman scores a run at Wrigley Field.
The Chicago Cubs and Baltimore Orioles begin a three-game set at Camden Yards on Tuesday, July 7, and my top MLB picks are centered around the two teams going Over the 9.5 total (+105) tonight.
My Cubs vs. Orioles predictions also expect the North Siders to take Game 1 of the series as a short road favorite (-107) thanks to the rolling Chicago offense.
Who will win Cubs vs Orioles today: Cubs moneyline (-107)
The Chicago Cubs rank higher in xwOBA, wOBA, and runs per game across the past 30 days, and they also sit eighth in wOBA against right-handed pitchers for the year.
Meanwhile, the Baltimore Orioles place just 26th in that metric against lefties, hitting just .227 against southpaws in 2026.
Neither Chicago lefty Matthew Boyd nor Baltimore righty Shane Baz have impressed this season, so I’m riding with the superior offense.
Playable to -115.
COVERS INTEL: Baltimore Orioles starter Shane Baz has the sixth-highest walk rate among qualified starting pitchers since the beginning of last season, and the Chicago Cubs boast the highest walk rate against righties in 2026. This mismatch paves the way to the Cubs moneyline and Over.
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Cubs vs Orioles Over/Under pick: Over 9.5 (+105)
Returning to the ho-hum pitching matchup, Boyd enters with a 4.73 xERA while allowing a monster .420 xwOBAcon, so I’m still anticipating the Orioles chipping in offense to help cash this Over.
Additionally, Baz has posted a mediocre 4.47 xERA and xFIP with negative pitch values on his two most frequent offerings.
The Cubs have hit the Over in 12 of their last 16 games (+7.60 Units / 43% ROI), and the Orioles have gone Over the number in 25 of their last 45 games at home (+5.10 Units / 10% ROI).
Playable to +100.
Neil Parker’s 2026 Transparency Record
- ML/RL bets: 42-18, +26.58 units
- Over/Under bets: 17-15, +0.85 units
Cubs vs Orioles weather
Heavy rain and thunderstorms moving across the Mid-Atlantic present a risk of a delay or postponement.
However, 76% humidity and a gentle 5-to-6 mph wind blowing right-to-left at Camden Yards shouldn’t have a significant impact on playing conditions.
Cubs vs Orioles odds
- Moneyline: Cubs -117 | Orioles -103
- Run line: Cubs -1.5 (+140) | Orioles +1.5 (-167)
- Over/Under: Over 9.5 (+105) | Under 9.5 (-130)
Cubs vs Orioles trend
Chicago has won 16 of its last 22 games (+8.45 Units / 28% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Orioles.
How to watch Cubs vs Orioles and game info
Location
Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore, MD
Date
Tuesday, July 7, 2026
First pitch
6:35 p.m. ET
TV
MARQ, MASN
Cubs starting pitcher
Matthew Boyd
(3-1, 5.08 ERA)
Orioles starting pitcher
Shane Baz
(4-8, 4.19 ERA)
Cubs vs Orioles latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Neil Parker is, first and foremost, a sports fan. A huge supporter of the Cowboys, Cubs, and Maple Leafs, he has managed to parlay his passion into writing gigs at some of the top websites in the industry.
Neil takes a numbers-based approach to his handicapping and complements his in-depth statistical analysis with a keen eye on the markets to provide the best available odds. He loves to lean on his rolodex of idioms to offset his inner nerd. When it comes to wagering, he throws down on anything that catches his eye at bet365, Betway and BetVictor. He also keeps a close eye on CoolBet because the polar bear brand often has outlier NHL and NFL moneyline prices.
Neil graduated with honors from St. Thomas University in 2007 before completing his BEd at Acadia University in 2010. After teaching a myriad of courses and subjects, he found a groove delivering fun lessons to exceptional learners in non-traditional classroom environments. If his decade-plus teaching run taught him anything about sports betting, it’s to stay the course and use the summer – or offseason – to refresh and prepare to be better in the year to come.
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