The draft’s Big Three are all likely to go in the first three picks, and, for the moment, Grady Emerson still lands here as the No. 1 pick. llustration: Demetrius Robinson / The Athletic; Photos: Mike Janes, Tracy Proffitt / Four Seam Images via AP Photo, Ken Ruinard / USA Today Network via Imagn Images
July 10, 2026 Updated 9:06 am EDT
This is my final full mock draft before the actual 2026 MLB Draft takes place, starting on Saturday at 1 p.m. ET. At this writing, it’s still unclear who the Chicago White Sox are going to select with the first pick, which has ripple effects everywhere from pick No. 2 on down. It sounds like the top 10 will be very college heavy, and maybe the whole top 20, and then after that we’ll see a big run on high school players of all stripes.
This is a projection of how the first round may play out on Saturday, but has nothing to do with my own rankings or evaluations of any players. For full scouting reports on these players and more, check out my Big Board, ranking the top 100 players in the draft class.
Keith Law’s Big Board for the 2026 MLB Draft
Keith Law
Player Type Pitcher Position Player Position Player/Pitcher
School Type 4-Year College High School
Position 3B C LHP OF RHP SS
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Player Profile
School: Fort Worth Christian (North Richland Hills, Texas), Bats: L, Throws: R
By all accounts, the White Sox have still narrowed down their pick to Emerson, Roch Cholowsky and Vahn Lackey. All are good choices and none is likely to come at much of a discount. The only shift I’ve heard this week is that the White Sox were “more engaged” with Cholowsky, whatever that means. It is entirely possible that they’ve wanted him all along and are creating the illusion of competition to negotiate a better bonus deal with him. Or maybe they just like Emerson more.
Position Player
High School
SS
Player Profile
School: Georgia Tech, Bats: R, Throws: R
I’ve heard the guy the Rays really want is Grady Emerson, and that they would likely take Lackey over Roch Cholowsky. Rumors of them cutting a deal with someone else have kind of died off in the last week.
Position Player
4-Year College
C
Player Profile
School: UCLA, Bats: R, Throws: R
I continue to hear the Twins will take Cholowsky if he’s there, and probably would take Vahn Lackey, but I’m not certain about Grady Emerson — in a situation where Lackey and Cholowsky are off the board, they may take Drew Burress or Jackson Flora.
Position Player
4-Year College
SS
Player Profile
School: Gulliver Prep (Pinecrest, Fla.), Bats: R, Throws: R
I’m still hearing the Giants want Grady Emerson or Roch Cholowsky but don’t expect to get either. In that case, it’s likely Lombard or Eric Booth Jr. over Jackson Flora, although I heard on Thursday that Flora is still a possibility here.
Position Player
High School
SS
Player Profile
School: UC Santa Barbara, Bats: R, Throws: R
I can’t see any of the Big 3 falling here, which would probably put the Pirates’ decision set as Flora, Eric Booth Jr. and one of the college bats like Burress. I don’t believe they’re in on Jacob Lombard or Justin Lebron.
Player Profile
School: Georgia Tech, Bats: R, Throws: R
Here’s where it gets weird — the Royals could go high school bat, as suddenly the word is K.C. is on college bats here, again trying to do a deal and maybe go over slot at pick 30. I’d previously heard them with USC left-hander Mason Edwards at a discount, and of course Brian Bridges’ history as scouting director is that he likes high-upside players like Eric Booth Jr. or Jacob Lombard. Burress or Tyler Bell would be the top college bat remaining in this scenario.
Position Player
4-Year College
OF
Player Profile
School: Oak Grove HS (Hattiesburg, Miss.), Bats: L, Throws: L
Word is the Orioles want Booth, might take Drew Burress, have no realistic hope of getting Jackson Flora, and have a mixed camp on Jacob Lombard (who supposedly had a great workout in front of their execs). Derek Curiel is the best of the next group of college hitters.
Position Player
High School
OF
Player Profile
School: Arkansas, Bats: R, Throws: R
I think the A’s would love Drew Burress and the only arm they’d consider is probably Jackson Flora. If everything falls apart, they could just do an under-slot deal with a college bat here.
Position Player
4-Year College
C
Player Profile
School: Stoneman Douglas HS (Parkland, Fla.), Bats: R, Throws: L
I’ve said in the last two mocks Atlanta supposedly wants Drew Burress, and I do think they’re the high-water mark for Rojas. With Burress increasingly likely to be gone at No. 9, they’re getting linked to some wildly different players, including Jacob Lombard, who could also end up in the 11-15 range if he doesn’t go at No. 4 to the Giants.
Player Profile
School: LSU, Bats: L, Throws: L
The Rockies’ potential pool of players is pretty open here but most likely a college player, hitter or pitcher. They’re not on Gio Rojas. I’ve heard Chris Hacopian may get into the top 10, but I think that would only be here or maybe Atlanta. I also think they’re on prep infielder Connor Comeau for one of their picks at 37/38.
Position Player
4-Year College
OF
Player Profile
School: Texas A&M, Bats: R, Throws: R
If the Nats’ interest in Hacopian is a smokescreen to hide their interest in someone else (Jared Grindlinger’s name was hot early, less recently), it’s been a darn good one, as everyone I ask assumes this is their guy.
Position Player
4-Year College
SS
3B
Player Profile
School: Florida, Bats: R, Throws: R
Recently fired GM Perry Minasian was extremely hands-on in the draft, so his departure means the Angels are likely to change strategy — including being open to taking high school players in the first round. I’ve heard them more on pitching, though that could be from before the change, and they could be Gio Rojas’ floor. They are also on Justin Lebron and Tyler Bell.
Player Profile
School: USC, Bats: L, Throws: L
I’ve heard the Cardinals more with college arms than anything else, and don’t believe they’d consider a high school arm. Edwards fits the Cardinals’ new pitching development philosophy, as his main concern is his present velocity, and St. Louis believes it can improve that.
Player Profile
School: Mississippi, Bats: R, Throws: R
Rabe is the hottest name in the draft in terms of how much he seems to go up every time I do this exercise, having finished very strongly and scoring very well in teams’ draft models. I have heard them a little with some upside players (Justin Lebron, Gio Rojas), but more with somewhat safer college players, hitters or pitchers. The Marlins’ model tends to favor defense, so Lebron might fit but several of the other college bats wouldn’t.
Player Profile
School: Alabama, Bats: R, Throws: R
This one popped up just this week, as it’s become clearer that Lebron is probably not going in the top 10 (although I could see him with K.C. or maybe as a sleeper with Atlanta if they don’t get Drew Burress). I’ve also heard Arizona with Bo Lowrance and Chase Brunson.
Position Player
4-Year College
SS
Player Profile
School: Huntington Beach (Calif.) HS, Bats: L, Throws: L
Not sure how seriously to take this but it’s come up a few times; Grindlinger could go as high as 11, he could end up someone’s way over-slot second pick, or he could price himself out and end up at Tennessee. I do expect the Rangers to have their pick of several players they’d like among some high-upside options.
Position Player/Pitcher
High School
OF
LHP
Player Profile
School: Mississippi State, Bats: L, Throws: R
Reese is similar to Brice Matthews, an advanced bat, good data, questionable defense and position. I think the Astros are a floor for Justin Lebron, too.
Position Player
4-Year College
3B
Player Profile
School: Arkansas, Bats: R, Throws: L
I’ve heard the Reds more with college players here, though they have gone high school plenty of times with their first pick before, including last year. Dietz, Taylor Rabe, maybe Tyler Bell and Cameron Flukey are all possibilities here.
Player Profile
School: Coastal Carolina, Bats: R, Throws: R
I’ve heard that Flukey won’t get past the Guardians. Generally, I’ve heard more college players here than high school. I mentioned Chris Rembert, a young college player with strong contact skills and good batted-ball data, last time, as he also fits the archetype of their preferred hitter.
Player Profile
School: TCU, Bats: R, Throws: R
I’ve heard the Red Sox with at least one player in each of the four categories — college hitters (Brunson, Zion Rose), college pitchers (Taylor Rabe), high school hitters (Bo Lowrance) and high school pitchers (Brody Bumila, before he got hurt). I don’t think they’ll take a high school arm, and heard Lowrance worked out for them but wasn’t great, which could lead them to pivot to a college player.
Position Player
4-Year College
OF
Player Profile
School: Christ Church Episcopal (Greenville, SC), Bats: L, Throws: R
Yeah, yeah, the Padres usually take a high school pitcher, especially a lefty, but unless Gio Rojas gets here (no shot), they’ll just go for upside. I would be very surprised if they took a college player; I’d rate that as less likely than them “reaching” a little for a high school player they love, some high-ceiling guy like Archer Horn or Jack Slightom or Carson Bolemon.
Position Player
High School
3B
Player Profile
School: Southside Christian School (Simpsonville, SC), Bats: B, Throws: L
The Tigers are probably going for upside, though I did hear them on some lower-ceiling infielders this week like Taj Marchand or Aiden Ruiz.
Player Profile
School: Louisville, Bats: R, Throws: R
I think the Cubs would really like to get Rose, and if he’s gone, I wonder if Logan Hughes would be a fit here, just given his outstanding hard-contact rates.
Position Player
4-Year College
OF
Player Profile
School: Tennessee, Bats: B, Throws: R
I thought the Mariners might go with a bat here, not for need, per se, but because there’s depth in college hitters with strong data at this spot, but I’ve heard they’re heavy on Kuhns, who has great stuff and had a breakout year for Tennessee. I don’t see any way they go high school pitcher (after hearing a month or so ago that might be their direction). If Kuhns is gone, I could see them with Logan Hughes, AJ Gracia, Zion Rose or Cole Carlon. Not sure if they’d take Cameron Flukey or if they’ve not been linked because they assume he’s gone.
Player Profile
School: Texas Tech, Bats: L, Throws: L
I still think the Brewers go with a college bat, although they don’t always steer that way — Braylon Payne was their first-rounder two years ago and he’s popped this year. I could see them taking Cameron Flukey or Tegan Kuhns if they go pitching. I’ve also heard Cole Prosek here, but that may just be because his uncle is their third-base coach.
Position Player
4-Year College
OF
Player Profile
School: Virginia, Bats: L, Throws: L
What Atlanta does here depends a lot on what they do at No. 9. I imagine if they get Drew Burress with their first pick they may pivot to a high schooler here, maybe local kid Trevor Condon (not because he’s local, that’s not a thing any more).
Position Player
4-Year College
OF
Player Profile
School: TCU, Bats: L, Throws: L
A draft model darling with a pretty left-handed swing, Strosnider has slipped a little because of platoon-split issues and some underperformance, but a development-minded team like the Mets will see opportunity there. I have heard the Mets a little with college bats and don’t think they go high school arm here.
Position Player
4-Year College
OF
Player Profile
School: Georgia, Bats: R, Throws: R
I may be the skeptic on Jackson’s pro upside but all accounts are he’s going somewhere in the first round.
Position Player
4-Year College
C
OF
Player Profile
School: St. Ignatius College Prep (San Francisco), Bats: L, Throws: R
Not that I think this is a lock, but the Giants will have money to spend here and they’ve been connected to Horn before. I thought Tyler Spangler might go here but now that sounds like it’s a reach.
Position Player/Pitcher
High School
SS
RHP
Player Profile
School: Magnolia Heights (Senatobia, Miss.), Bats: L, Throws: R
Prosek is a more typical Royals pick from the last two years, a higher-upside high school bat. He is part of a large group of such players who’ll probably hear their names called in the 25-40 range, including Archer Horn, Landon Thome, Will Brick, Will Adams and Connor Comeau.
Position Player
High School
3B
C
Jul 10, 2026
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