MLB Home Run Predictions Today: Best HR Prop Bets, Picks, Parlay & Odds for Friday, July 10
Updated:
Jul 10, 2026 , 04:18 PM ET
• 4 min read
Our daily MLB player props are highlighted by a big night at the dish for Yordan Alvarez!
Photo By – Reuters Connect. Houston Astros designated hitter Yordan Alvarez.
Friday’s MLB card is loaded with star power, and a few of baseball’s biggest bats find themselves in favorable matchups.
Before locking in your MLB player props, here are my MLB picks I’m targeting to leave their mark tonight.
- UPDATE: Added another HR pick + parlay.
Best MLB home run props today
Player to hit a HR
Odds
Yordan Alvarez
+238
Kody Clemens
+339
Rafael Devers
+380
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Home run pick: Yordan Alvarez (+238)
My mouth waters when I see the name Cal Quantrill, because he is simply a gift to us home run-loving sons of guns.
So far this season against left-handed bats, the Rangers starter is allowing a 76.6% elevation rate, 15.6% barrel rate, and 40% hard-hit rate. Those hitters are generating a .460 xSLG and .377 xwOBA against him.
Yordan Alvarez enters Friday with an elite rating on Batters-Box while covering all of Quantrill’s pitches. In 22 games this season when Alvarez has received an elite rating, he has left the yard 31.82% of the time. Over the last 3 seasons, he has hit a home run in 21% of his games with an elite rating across 233 appearances.
Over his last 60 at-bats against right-handed pitching, Alvarez has maintained a .286 BA, .551 SLG, .968 OPS, and .265 ISO while generating a 55.6% hard-hit rate and 19.4% barrel rate.
Leave the yard and make our Friday great, Yordan.
- Time: 8:05 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: CW33, SCHN
Home run pick: Kody Clemens (+339)
The Rocket’s son finds himself in another boom spot, as he draws Angels right-hander Grayson Rodriguez on Friday. Kody Clemens enters the matchup with an elite rating while covering over 91% of Rodriguez’s subpar pitch mix. In 27 elite-rated matchups this season, the Twins slugger has left the yard 22.22% of the time.
Over his last 60 plate appearances against right-handed pitching, Clemens has been crushing the baseball, posting a .561 SLG, .844 OPS, and .298 ISO while generating a 58.7% hard-hit rate and 13% barrel rate.
Rodriguez has struggled against left-handed bats this season, allowing a 52.2% hard-hit rate and a 67.4% elevation rate. Lefties have also posted a .361 batting average, .651 SLG, and .469 wOBA against him.
With both sides generating plenty of hard contact, this feels like another spot for the Twins slugger to leave the yard.
- Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MNNT, ABTV
Home run pick: Rafael Devers (+380)
It is hard to pass up a near 4-to-1 home run price on someone who has been absolutely crushing right-handed pitching. Over his last 60 plate appearances against righties, Giants slugger Rafael Devers owns a .388 BA, .980 SLG, 1.480 OPS and .592 ISO, while generating a 55% hard hit rate and 20% barrel rate.
Devers draws Tanner Gordon, whom he holds a 64.8% arsenal coverage rating against across his entire pitch mix. Gordon’s arsenal grades below league average on FanGraphs, and he has been getting hit hard by left-handed bats, allowing a 62.7% elevation rate and 50.7% hard hit rate, while surrendering a .716 SLG and .454 wOBA.
On Batters-Box, Devers owns the highest matchup rating on the slate using the default ratings dating back the last 3 seasons. In 247 elite ratings, Devers has gone deep 22% of the time.
This is one of my favorite long ball matchups of the day. Let Devers MASH!
- Time: 10:15 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: NBCSBA, COLR
Today’s HR parlay
Yordan Alvarez
Bet Now
+6700
Kody Clemens
Rafael Devers
Colby Marchio’s 2026 Transparency Record
- HR picks: 76-265, +11.5 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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