Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Lightweight contenders Paddy Pimblett vs. Benoit Saint-Denis will collide this weekend (Sat., July 11, 2026) inside T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada, for UFC 329.
Pimblett’s undefeated UFC run came to a dramatic end in his interim title fight versus Justin Gaethje, a bloody loss that in fairness has aged quite well. At 31 years of age, “The Baddy” is at the peak of his career and could return to the immediate title mix quickly with a victory here. There’s also the matter of his long-standing feud with Ilia Topuria (details here), a matchup that is distinctly more available now that no belt is on the line.
As for Saint-Denis, the Frenchman has responded very well from his disastrous 2024. “The God Of War” has won four-straight fights all via finish, including a significant upset over red-hot knockout artist, Mauricio Ruffy (re-live that here). Only 30 himself, “BSD” is ready to take a second run at Lightweight title contention.
Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:
SYDNEY, AUSTRALIA – FEBRUARY 01: (L-R) Benoit Saint Denis of France elbows Dan Hooker of New Zealand in a lightweight fight during the UFC 325 event at Qudos Bank Arena on February 01, 2026 in Sydney, Australia. (Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC)
Pimblett vs. Saint-Denis Betting Odds
- Paddy Pimblett victory: +114
- Paddy Pimblett via TKO/KO/DQ: +500
- Paddy Pimblett via submission: +600
- Paddy Pimblett via decision: +420
- Benoit Saint-Denis victory: -146
- Benoit Saint-Denis via TKO/KO/DQ: +350
- Benoit Saint-Denis via submission: +360
- Benoit Saint-Denis via decision: +450
- Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
The first and most important key to Pimblett’s success is being a gigantic Lightweight, which aids him in all assets. Secondly, “The Baddy” is actually a pretty smart cookie, able to gameplan well for his opponents’ weaknesses. On the whole, he’s a tricky — if technically flawed — range striker with excellent jiu-jitsu and decent wrestling.
Though I would expect some improvement in the two years since his consecutive losses to Dustin Poirier and Renato Moicano, the weaknesses in Saint-Denis’ game are well-known. He’s aggressive and hittable on the feet, and he really struggled when placed on his back by a solid BJJ black belt in Moicano. Therefore, it makes sense for Pimblett to focus on his counter punches and top control.
Landing counters starts with winning the range battle and forcing Saint-Denis to over-extend. Pimblett has to show up ready to block that punishing left kick and land his own front kicks. His quick switch kick could be effective as well. Pimblett’s jab has improved in recent years, too, so that could really help him as well.
Ultimately, however, Pimblett most likely wins this fight on the canvas from top position even if scoring a takedown outright may be difficult. If he can hurt Saint-Denis on the counter, that’s one viable option. Alternatively, he could look to capitalize on a bad “BSD” shot, which again will be more likely if he’s doing damage on the feet.
Saint-Denis is an absolute marauder. There isn’t much complicated about his striking style, but a vicious left kick, powerful punches, and nasty clinch work count for a lot. He’s also a relentless pressure fighter with strong wrestling and brutal top pressure.
Defense? Never heard of it.
Saint-Denis may be the heavier hitter, but he’s not quite as clean or varied as Pimblett on the feet. In all likelihood, he wants to get this fight to the canvas, where he’ll have to walk the line of respecting Pimblett’s grappling without getting hesitant.
Is Pimblett’s jiu-jitsu a respectable threat? Definitely. However, winning fights from bottom position is a terrible strategy in a sport where elbows are allowed. Every ounce of a sweat and elbow landed decrease the odds of success. Back in the regional days, we saw Pimblett get held down and beaten up by opponents like Nad Narimani.
That loss was a long time ago, but we haven’t seen Pimblett’s defensive wrestling particularly tested in recent years. As such, Saint-Denis should be clubbing his way forward and attacking the hips right away — he has the grappling to navigate Pimblett’s guard and take over in the long run.
SYDNEY, AUSTRALIA – FEBRUARY 01: Benoit Saint Denis of France poses for a portrait after his victory during the UFC 325 event at Qudos Bank Arena on February 01, 2026 in Sydney, Australia. (Photo by Mike Roach/Zuffa LLC)
Pimblett vs. Saint-Denis Prediction
I’m really curious to see how “BSD” approaches this fight. If he’s hesitant at all or unwilling to wrestle, he could play right into Pimblett’s hands. Alternatively, approaching the fight with his usual gusto should pay off, as it’s much more exhausting to spend minutes on one’s back as the damage begins to build.
Seeing as Saint-Denis has never hesitated in the past, I have to assume he trusts himself and his grappling here. In that case, expect a grueling fight that slowly becomes one-sided as the relentess pressure of “BSD” overcomes some of Pimblett’s technical advantages.
Prediction: Saint-Denis via decision
To see who else is fighting at UFC 329 on Paramount+ click here.
