The 2026 MLB All-Star Home Run Derby is just around the corner — and the field is starting to take shape.
Tampa Bay Rays phenom Junior Caminero became the first player to commit to this year’s event, which will be held at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia on Monday. He was followed by New York Yankees slugger Ben Rice, Kansas City Royals slugger Jac Caglianone, Boston Red Sox All-Star Willson Contreras and St. Louis Cardinals breakout star Jordan Walker. Then it was hometown stars Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber’s turn to commit. Finally, Chicago White Sox rookie Munetaka Murakami completed the field.
As the entrants are announced, we break down their chances at taking home this year’s Derby prize.
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Junior Caminero, Tampa Bay Rays
2026 home runs: 26 | Longest: 463 feet
Why he could win: Is there anyone hotter in baseball than the Rays slugger right now? The reigning AL player of the week and month has turned the past couple of weeks into his own personal home run derby, including a streak of six straight games with a long ball. If swinging a hot bat isn’t reason enough, Caminero owns the average fastest bat speed in the majors (80.0 mph) and also finished second in the event last year, so we already know his powerful bat translates to the Derby stage.
Why he might not: Youth? Despite that runner-up finish as a 22-year-old last summer, no player as young as Caminero is now has ever won the Derby. In fact, if Caminero is the last slugger standing in Philly, he would be 257 days younger than a 23-year-old Juan Gonzalez.
Ben Rice, New York Yankees
2026 home runs: 25 | Longest home run: 433 feet
Why he could win: Rice has been one of the true breakout power stars of the past year-plus, belting 51 home runs since the start of the 2025 season and nearly matching his career high set last season in just 315 2026 at-bats. His average exit velocity (91.8 mph) is in the 87th percentile and his barrel rate (14.7%) is in the 89th, so Rice is capable of hitting the ball hard and doing so often — a great recipe for Derby success. As for any fear of this being his first Home Run Derby being a negative? The past two Derby champions — Cal Raleigh and Teoscar Hernandez — were competing in the event for the first time.
Why he might not: Despite his breakout production, Rice still has some swing-and-miss issues in his game. He has struck out 86 times in 85 games this season and has a 24.9% whiff rate. Winning the Home Run Derby is about stringing together multiple rounds of consistent home runs, and getting out of a rhythm can spell doom for any slugger.
Jac Caglianone, Kansas City Royals
2026 home runs: 14 | Longest home run: 444 feet
Why he could win: In his short time in the majors, Caglianone already ranks among MLB’s elite when it comes to hitting the ball hard. He’s in the top 12 in the sport in average exit velo, max exit velo, 50th percentile exit velo and hard-hit percentage. He’s also in the midst of putting those metrics together during the best stretch of his career, mashing nine home runs in June.
Why he might not: Despite his recent surge, Caglianone has struggled at times during his MLB career — especially when it comes to making consistent contact. Unlike his standout exit velo metrics, he ranks in the 20th percentile of hitters in squared-up percentage, 16th percentile in chase rate, 14th in whiff% and 11th in K%. All of which could add up to a very hit or miss Derby.
Willson Contreras, Boston Red Sox
2026 home runs: 20 | Longest home run: 449 feet
Why he could win: Contreras’ production has been one of the biggest bright spots in a rough season for the Red Sox. At age 34, he is having his best power season — his 20 home runs in 87 games matches his season total from last year and is just four behind his career high. And his Statcast data supports the late-career spike as his .513 xSLG ranks in the top 8% of MLB hitters and his 114.4 max exit velo in the top 6%. And before you chalk it up to playing in Fenway Park in his first season with the Red Sox: Contreras at home this season — 10 home runs; Contreras on the road this season — 10 home runs.
Why he might not: Citizens Bank Ballpark has a reputation for being friendly for left-handed hitters, and Contreras is a right-handed pull hitter. In fact, just one of his 20 home runs this season has been to anywhere other than left field — and that was a 411-foot shot to center field. Combine that with Contreras’ age (Dave Parker is the oldest Derby winner at age 34 way back in 1985) and it could be an uphill fight for the Boston slugger.
Jordan Walker, St. Louis Cardinals
2026 home runs: 21 | Longest home run: 459 feet
Why he could win: One of the true breakout stars of the 2026 MLB season, Walker is built to withstand the rigors of the Derby — literally. He stands 6-foot-6 and is listed at 250 pounds and has finally put it all together this year, already besting his career high in home runs (and nearly every other offensive category). His Baseball Savant page is also filled with red in bat speed (100th percentile), exit velo (98th percentile) and hard-hit% (93rd percentile).
Why he might not: Like some of the other young sluggers in this field, swing-and-miss is Walker’s biggest weakness. His Baseball Savant page turns blue quickly when you get to the contact categories: 17th percentile in whiff%, 21st percentile in chase% and 28th in K%. Yet another player who could boom — or bust — in Philly.
Bryce Harper, Philadelphia Phillies
2026 home runs: 20 | Longest home run: 457 feet
Why he could win: Are you going to doubt Bryce Harper? In his own ballpark? Need we remind you of what he did in 2018, when he won the Derby in his home ballpark during his final year with the Nationals? Not only that, but Harper has regained his power stroke in 2026, already closing in on last season’s home run total (27) and raining his slugging percentage over .500 once again. One thing is for sure. If Harper gets hot in the Derby, the Bank is going to be rocking.
Why he might not: Harper is 33 years old, and some of his underlying power metrics are a tick behind others in this field. He’s still an elite hitter, don’t get us wrong, but his exit velo (66th percentile), barrel% (78th percentile) and hard-hit% are more good than great at this point in his career.
Kyle Schwarber, Philadelphia Phillies
2026 home runs: 32 | Longest home run: 460 feet
Why he could win: These writeups have spotlighted statistics, metrics and ballpark-specific advantages for most of the field, but that doesn’t really seem necessary for Schwarber. His 32 home runs lead the league, but even that is underselling Schwarber as a power hitter. He belted 56 last year and is on pace to match that number again — plus, his overall power exploits are legendary, like last year’s All-Star Game-winning swing-off home run or his four-homer game last summer or any of his many postseason blasts. Add in that the Derby is in his ballpark and everyone else might be chasing Schwarber on Monday night.
Why he might not: Schwarber has been dealing with lower back tightness that had him in and out of the Phillies’ lineup as recently as a couple of weeks ago. That isn’t the sort of thing you want popping up during the max effort swings of a Derby, so if anything is going to keep Schwarber from lasting deep into this year’s event, that seems most likely.
Munetaka Murakami, Chicago White Sox
2026 home runs: 20 | Longest 2026 home run: 451
Why he could win: Fittingly, the final player to commit to this Derby has drawn comps to the name write above his on this list: Kyle Schwarber. Murakami has big-time power, blasting 20 home runs in just 200 at-bats this season and has some elite metrics backing up those numbers: 99th-percentile hard-hit% and barrel%, 98th-percentile average exlit velo and 87th-percentile bat speed.
Why he might not: Murakami is the wild card of this whole field, having just come off the IL on Friday night — three days before he’ll be swinging for the fences against the sport’s elite in Philly. And while his powerful start was the talk of the sport early on, we’ve still only seen it for 57 games and he last homered on May 27. It’s not so much tht Murakami can’t win, it’s more that we don’t know what we’ll see from him Monday night.
