Credit: Gerry Angus-Imagn Images
Bill Buckner and Steve Bartman know better than most that baseball is a haunted sport. Downright spooky even. Curses range from the Bambino to the Billy Goat to Seattle-area Etsy witches, baseball fans subscribe to and are victims of decades long vexing hexes.
And by baseball standards, the Home Run Derby Curse is akin to the curse of being on the cover of MLB the Show. FanGraphs writers have taken hacks at diminishing this curse over the years, but the popular consciousness still loves to tout it. Their theory is fairly straight forward, relying on the idea that derby participants change their swing to try and win the derby, and can’t find their game swing again in the second half, leading to a slump.
In this article, I’ll seek to answer two questions:
In recent years, has there been a fall off between halves for derby participants?
And is there a way to try and predict who will fall off to help us humble fantasy managers sell high?
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Taking each of the eight derby participants from the last four seasons, I first took the difference between second half and first half performance to find if there is a general drop off in production for these players.
If the values in the below table are negative, that means that the player had a lower value for that metric in the second half than they did in the first half (H2-H1). For every value besides IFFB% (pop-up rate), a negative value in the below table is evidence of fall off.
Average HR Derby Participant Fall Off (2022-2025)
Year
diffPA
diffHR
diffHR/PA
diffSLG
diffxwOBA
diffFB%
diffIFFB%
diffHR/FB
diffPull%
diffHard%
2022
-90
-6
-0.41%
0.017
-0.003
-0.41%
-1.73%
-0.50%
1.10%
0.41%
2023
-99
-6
-0.31%
0.000
-0.012
-0.01%
2.96%
-0.43%
5.11%
-3.36%
2024
-140
-8
-0.44%
-0.016
-0.008
-1.99%
-1.68%
-1.15%
0.96%
-0.14%
2025
-122
-9
-0.70%
-0.052
-0.030
-1.89%
0.59%
-2.44%
0.75%
0.59%
Total
-113
-7
-0.38%
-0.013
-0.013
-1.08%
0.04%
-1.13%
1.98%
-0.63%
Clearly, there are at least small decreases across this sample, which includes dozens of players and thousands of plate appearances over four seasons. Players who participated in the derby, on average, hit fewer home runs per plate appearance, had lower SLG and xwOBAs, hit fewer fly balls but more pop ups, and had diminished HR/FB and hard hit rates in the second half.
Looking over the last four seasons, it seems the most glaring declines across the participants are decreases in FB% and HR/FB rate.
This does not support the classic theoretical argument for why hitters experience downturns following the home run derby, which centers around swing changes for the derby hurting a hitter’s actual swing.
Witches and warlocks rejoice!
The above results actually lend themselves to a more simplistic theory, where hitters who are chosen for the derby are themselves part of a selection bias that makes them a group that is likely to have home run production decrease in the second half.
Witches and warlocks, take flight, retreat from Occam’s razor!
This may seem a bit counterintuitive at first, but is backed by the above data. Hitters selected for the derby are, generally speaking, hitting lots of home runs in the first half. Probably more than they usually do.
From 2022 to 2025, the average derby participant had 19.8 home runs and was hitting home runs in 5.21% of plate appearances in the first half. In the second half, these hitters averaged 12.7 home runs and a 4.83% HR/PA in the second half.
For context, the league average HR/PA was 3% from 2022 to 2025. So the derby participants are logically above average hitters in terms of HR/PA, but the data suggests they may just be hitters who had a hot first half.
This is especially evidenced by HR/FB declines for the participants. From 2022 to 2025, derby participants experienced a 1.13% decrease in HR/FB, as well as a 1.08% decrease in FB%. So they hit fewer fly balls and hit less of those fly balls over the fence.
But were certain hitters dragging down the average decrease? Absolutely.
Egregious Offenders, Biggest HR/PA Derby Decliners (2022-2025)
Name
Team
Season
HR/PA
SLG
xwWOBA
FB%
IFFB%
HR/FB
Pull%
Pete Alonso
NYM
2022
-3.41%
-0.103
-0.003
-10.70%
-4.20%
-8.40%
-6.70%
Kyle Schwarber
PHI
2022
-4.83%
-0.116
0.002
-17.10%
5.00%
-13.90%
-0.80%
Juan Soto
WSN
2022
-1.86%
-0.058
-0.100
9.00%
4.70%
-11.50%
14.30%
Pete Alonso
NYM
2023
-2.02%
0.001
-0.053
-2.70%
-3.70%
-5.10%
11.80%
Luis Robert Jr.
CHW
2023
-4.42%
-0.200
-0.037
-7.20%
2.40%
-14.30%
-2.10%
Gunnar Henderson
BAL
2024
-3.35%
-0.137
-0.025
0.30%
-0.10%
-17.30%
-0.50%
Marcell Ozuna
ATL
2024
-1.20%
-0.114
-0.070
0.80%
-1.00%
-1.40%
-3.10%
José Ramírez
CLE
2024
-2.63%
-0.125
-0.018
-7.40%
0.50%
-3.10%
-12.70%
Pete Alonso
NYM
2024
-2.66%
-0.072
-0.022
-14.10%
-11.00%
-7.10%
-5.00%
Matt Olson
ATL
2025
-1.45%
-0.080
-0.056
-21.40%
-11.10%
10.20%
-8.90%
Cal Raleigh
SEA
2025
-6.94%
-0.323
-0.103
-22.40%
-8.20%
-16.50%
-17.40%
Junior Caminero
TBR
2025
-2.33%
-0.060
-0.005
8.30%
-1.70%
-10.10%
-3.30%
Total
—
—
-3.03%
-0.139
-0.042
-7.89%
-3.78%
-7.45%
-6.63%
Amongst the hitters with HR/PA declines of greater than 1%, the average declines in FB%, HR/FB%, and Pull% are noticeable. And are much greater than those of the overall sample of derby participants shown earlier, in each case by around 6%.
So how do we make this actionable for this season, you ask?
First, I want to test if the most negatively affected derby participants shown above all were running outlier FB%, HR/FB, and Pull% numbers in the first halves of their derby seasons compared to their prior norms.
If this is true, then it would make sense to identify this season’s outliers and at least consider the sell high case.
But first, were the derby droppers all running hot, relative to career norms?
HR Metric Declines, Relative to Pre-Derby Three Year Averages
Name
Team
Season
FB%
HR/FB
Pull%
Pete Alonso
NYM
2022
-0.8%
4.4%
-6.5%
Kyle Schwarber
PHI
2022
-12.5%
0.5%
-2.7%
Juan Soto
WSN
2022
-5.0%
3.9%
1.6%
Pete Alonso
NYM
2023
-2.6%
-3.5%
1.8%
Luis Robert Jr.
CHW
2023
-7.9%
-9.9%
-4.2%
Gunnar Henderson
BAL
2024
1.5%
-11.7%
0.3%
Marcell Ozuna
ATL
2024
2.5%
-6.4%
-2.9%
José Ramírez
CLE
2024
-1.8%
-2.5%
-1.4%
Pete Alonso
NYM
2024
1.5%
4.9%
0.6%
Matt Olson
ATL
2025
1.9%
4.8%
0.3%
Cal Raleigh
SEA
2025
-5.9%
-9.1%
-6.9%
Junior Caminero
TBR
2025
0.7%
-9.8%
-6.0%
Total
—
—
-1.7%
-2.6%
-3.2%
On average, yes. The most obviously cursed hitters from the last four seasons averaged a 1.7% decrease in FB%, a 2.6% drop in HR/FB, and a 3.2% decrease in Pull% compared to their previous three-season average.
Two hitters were worse than the rest of their already diminished peers, Luis Robert Jr. in 2023 and Cal Raleigh last season. As is shown above, they were much worse. Two more second half power outages, from Kyle Schwarber in 2022 and Gunnar Henderson in 2024, were foreshadowed by 10+% drops in FB% and HR/FB, respectively.
So this season, which of the derby participants has experienced a significantly stronger first half than their recent career norms, particularly in FB%, HR/FB, and Pull%?
2026 Derby Participants, Rates Relative to Pre-Derby Averages
Name
Team
HR
HR/PA
FB%
HR/FB
Pull%
Kyle Schwarber
PHI
32
7.82%
-2.9%
-5.6%
-2.6%
Willson Contreras
BOS
20
5.49%
-6.5%
-3.5%
-16.3%
Junior Caminero
TBR
28
6.88%
3.4%
-7.6%
-3.8%
Ben Rice
NYY
29
7.51%
2.0%
-13.1%
-2.9%
Jac Caglianone
KCR
15
4.35%
3.5%
-9.7%
-4.9%
Munetaka Murakami
CHW
20
7.84%
-5.6%
-24.4%
-0.5%
Bryce Harper
PHI
20
4.96%
-0.5%
-1.7%
-3.8%
Jordan Walker
STL
22
5.63%
0.0%
-12.0%
-1.0%
TOTAL
—
186
6.31%
-0.8%
-9.70%
-4.48%
Note: Munetaka Murakami’s three year average is pulled from NPB statistics. For players without three seasons prior to 2026 in the majors, all previous MLB seasons are used.
On average, this year’s crop is much like that of past years, as these hitters are outperforming their most recent career averages on the whole. And as in previous years, there are a few hitters who look especially likely to be heading towards the open maw of the regression monster.
Old Heads
Kyle Schwarber and Willson Contreras, two veteran sluggers, both are running outlier seasons in FB%, HR/FB, and Pull%, and are ahead of the 2022-2025 average decline of around 1% in each of those three metrics. While you may want to sell high now, it is hard to justify dealing either, and especially Schwarber, given the track record that both carry. They may not stay as hot as they’ve been to date, but both will likely be tough to replace.
The only caveat comes with the health of Contreras, who has reached 200 plate appearances in the second half only once in his career. He has, however, always hit well in the second half, with an OPS over .800 in six of his ten seasons, and an OPS over .740 in nine of ten. He should keep on pulling doubles and homers off the Monster in Fenway.
First Timers
Ben Rice, Munetaka Murakami, Jac Caglianone, and Jordan Walker are all first time participants in the derby, and all four are 27 years old or younger, representing the lower end of the average participant age.
For each, their HR/FB rates are 9.7% or higher than their most recent career averages, though there are plenty of qualifications to make amongst this group.
Munetaka Murakami has no previous MLB experience, so his numbers come from the NPB, and it really does seem like he’s adjusted his approach since coming stateside, or at least made it more extreme. And as Ben Clemens outlined earlier this season, Murakami could be a tremendous power threat, even with a seemingly flawed contact profile:
The seven most powerful hitters of 2025, as measured by ISO, each had strikeout rates higher than league average. They all chased more than Murakami, and all made slightly more contact – they averaged a 70% contact rate overall, as compared to his 60%. But they also averaged a 150 wRC+. It’s acceptable to sell out for power as long as it doesn’t tank your approach, and thus far, Murakami has been phenomenal at sticking to his plan.
Jac Caglianone has just a few hundred more PAs in the majors than Murakami, so his three year average is really just his 2025 numbers in the majors. Since that time though, Cags has clearly shown the ability to do something he couldn’t do last year. He is squaring up fly balls now. And hitting more of them.
I noted this for the budding Royals star back in May, highlighting batted ball profile changes in April and early May that predated his late May and June breakout. It seems though that these changes have’t been sticky.
Even at his hottest, Caglianone has been squaring up his fly balls less than he was through the early part of this season. What has helped is an improved hard hit rate, which is up 11.1% between the above samples and is near 60% for the hulking slugger since mid-May. But his 9.7% difference in HR/FB between this and last season is likely to come home to roost in the second half. He’s a prime sell high candidate.
Similarly to Caglianone, Ben Rice has one full season in the majors. The difference is that in his cup of coffee, the young Arroz did hit for power. Plus, he hits in a home park that is especially conducive to left-handed power to the pull side. So far this season, he’s made the most of it. And most impressively, he’s shown the ability to adjust.
After starting off the season hot, with a 41.7% HR/FB in March and April, Rice saw his HR/FB plummet to around 20% across May and June, with his pull rate falling below 50% as well. But in July so far, the Yankee slugger is pulling the ball at a 57.1% clip and is up to a 54.5% HR/FB. Notice how closely Rice’s HR/FB and hard hit rate follow his ability to pull the ball.
Jordan Walker made significant swing changes in the offseason. The noted Driveline beneficiary has been helping the young Cardinals compete in the now-loaded NL Central, hitting for power and average in the middle of the order. In May, Ben Clemens dove into what was driving the resurgent 24-year-old:
That simple transition to hitting grounders a little less often, and hitting the ball on the nose a little more often when he gets it in the air, is worth nearly 100 points of slugging (on contact) on its own. It can’t explain all of Walker’s improvement, but it helps explain why he had never posted even average production on contact before this year and is suddenly a standout in that category.
Since then, Walker has slowed down a hair. But he hasn’t hit below .283 in a month yet this season, he’s struck out less than 30% of the time in every month since April, and like Rice, he responded to a relatively weak stretch from May to June by pounding the ball heading into the break, carrying a .707 SLG and .317 ISO in July, while striking out less and walking more than he has all season.
Plus, even when he gets fooled a little, he can hit the ball like this.
Who to Sell
Experience may tell you to sell any and all of these six hitters, but deeper analysis into each makes that advice seem a bit hasty.
If you can, I’d recommend selling Murakami and Caglianone in redraft leagues, and particularly in points leagues, where strikeouts could become an issue for Murakami especially in the second half.
Opposing managers will likely think of both as buy highs, but they may underestimate the level of the crash, especially if either of these hitters dominate in the derby and cover up some of their blemishes.
The most likely outcome for both is regression, particularly with their HR/FB rate, and thus their home run output for the rest of season. If you can deal these bats for an arm, particularly as part of a trade for a veteran arm that isn’t as likely as a younger ace to be shelved during the fantasy playoffs, that could present the best value proposition, especially considering the rabbit ball that has begun to become a story on most manager’s minds.
Walker and Rice, on the other hand, have shown the ability to adjust to pitchers at the MLB level and have more experience under their belts. I trust both of them to come into the second half ready to do more adjusting and continue their ascents. If derby curse believers are worried about either and are looking to sell, feel free to pay up. But do so with the understanding that you are flying in the face of a curse and more than likely, neither will repeat their power outputs, even if they do continue to be valuable in other ways.
