NASHVILLE, Tenn. (WZTV) — This year’s El Niño is ramping up and could rank among the strongest ever recorded.
Sea surface temperatures across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific are running well above normal. Some areas are almost 3 degrees Celsius above average.
That’s a major signal that this is getting stronger. The equatorial subsurface temperatures have also increased.
Wind patterns across the equatorial Pacific have also shifted into a classic El Niño setup. Normally, strong trade winds blow across the Pacific, pushing warm water towards Asia and causing heavy rain there.
During El Niño, those trade winds weaken or reverse. The Southern Oscillation indices were significantly negative.
Together, those ocean and atmospheric changes confirm that El Niño is strengthening. Models show El Niño strengthening through the rest of the year.
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There’s an 81% chance of a very strong El Niño during October, November, and December. As of now, there’s a 97% chance that El Niño sticks around through at least early spring 2027.
Here’s what that means for us here in Tennessee. In the fall, a strong El Niño can bring us wetter-than-normal conditions.
In the winter, it usually means relatively dry conditions. One important detail, though, it doesn’t mean every location will see the classic El Niño weather pattern locally.
Even strong events don’t guarantee the same impacts everywhere. But the stronger the El Niño becomes, the more it shifts the odds towards its typical weather patterns across many parts of the world.
