When the
Ultimate Fighting Championship takes its show on the road, it’s
usually a good thing, and this weekend’s offering in Oklahoma City
is no exception.
Since the UFC ratcheted its schedule up to 40-plus events per year,
and especially once nearly half of those shows began taking place
in the Meta Apex in Las Vegas, there has been an increasing divide
between three basic event types. At the top end are the numbered
cards like last weekend’s
UFC 329 which, even if they are no longer broadcast by
pay-per-view, represent the best the promotion has to offer. They
are usually headlined by at least one title fight—or a Conor
McGregor-level circus attraction—and the rest of the card is
loaded with names to draw in the casual fan.
At the opposite extreme are fight nights at the Meta Apex, most of
which are strictly for UFC completists. Outside of a contender
matchup or two at the top, “UFC Vegas [number]” cards often don’t
include a single ranked fighter and are full of middling prospects
and veterans on losing streaks. The prelims of Apex cards are
populated with so many
DWCS alumni still on their first contract—including quite a few
who lost on the show but were signed anyway—that they’ve earned the
nickname “Dana White’s Saturday Night Contender Series.”
In between those two extremes are fight nights on the road, and
whether the destination happens to be Denver or Dubai, the
promotion tends to put its best foot forward for these shows. There
are contender matchups with immediate title implications, fighters
with local roots and fan bases are featured whenever possible, and
the endless parade of young prospects on the undercard includes
more of the blue-chip variety.
Even by that standard,
UFC Fight Night 281 “Du Plessis vs. Usman”, which takes place
Saturday at Paycom Center in Oklahoma City, is a quietly excellent
offering. The top two fights will go a long way towards setting up
the middleweight title picture for the next six to nine months, and
they feature the whole circle of life: a recent former champ still
in his prime, a pair of grizzled veterans looking to prove they can
still contend and a red-hot rising star about to face his biggest
test.
Outside of those marquee matchups, the card is loaded
all the way down to the prelims. While predicting future champs
is a guessing game at best, a sucker’s game at worst, the first
eight fights on this card feature at least four prospects still on
their first contract with the UFC who have that kind of upside.
Let us get on to the preview for the five-fight main card of UFC
Oklahoma City:
BETTING ODDS: Du Plessis (-275); Usman (+225)
Former middleweight champ du Plessis returns to the Octagon a year
after his deflating loss to Khamzat
Chimaev, seeking to take his place at the front of the
contenders’ queue, while former welterweight titleholder Usman
looks for his clearest route back to a title shot in either of the
two divisions in which he has competed recently.
Du Plessis’ nine-fight win streak to open his UFC run was shocking
in the best, most enjoyable way possible. “Stillknocks” joined the
promotion to little fanfare, a physically talented but seeming raw
and wild South African prospect, and then just kept on winning. In
fact, looking back at his rise to contention, and eventually to the
title, it’s hard to put a finger on exactly what the 32-year-old
does well other than…win. Time and again, he defeated opponents who
had clear routes to victory—and some who should have been nightmare
matchups for him—without changing his essential skill set or
approach.
Those skills, and that approach, are fiercely unconventional.
“Awkward yet effective” is the perfect descriptor for du Plessis’
striking, which consists of a lot of lunging, reaching punches that
deliver big power but leave him open to be countered, as well as
his wrestling, which includes a variety of shots from distance as
well as throws from the clinch that he finishes with strength,
persistence and good instincts.
Once du Plessis has his man on the ground, his top game is actually
fairly structured and methodical compared to his chaotic approach
on the feet. He delivers thudding ground shots, forcing his foe to
react or be bludgeoned, then calmly takes his opponent’s back when
it’s offered.
For du Plessis to ride that game all the way to the title took a
special kind of fighter. His seemingly wild approach partly
obscured the fact that he is one of the cleverest fighters in the
sport, routinely outsmarting veteran contenders and former champs
like Robert
Whittaker and Derek
Brunson, catching them in the transitions between striking,
wrestling and grappling. He also showed himself to be supremely
tough, durable and determined, as he had to fight through adversity
in most of his wins.
That made du Plessis’ title loss to Chimaev especially puzzling. It
wasn’t that Chimaev had such an easy time taking the champ down—he
was expected to be the better wrestler—but that du Plessis had no
answer for it. Time and again, “DDP” had managed to control his
fights, steering them away from his opponents’ advantages and
towards his own strengths, but against Chimaev he appeared inert,
beaten in a way we had never seen before.
Usman has been on the shelf even longer than du Plessis; when he
steps into the cage Saturday, it will have been nearly 14 months
since his headlining win over Joaquin
Buckley at UFC Atlanta last June. That win snapped a
three-fight skid for the former champ, but coming as it did back
down at welterweight—and against a particularly short, compact foe
in Buckley—it’s fair to wonder how much it says about Usman’s
remaining upside at 185 pounds.
At 39 and with a lifetime of fighting and wrestling behind him,
“The Nigerian Nightmare” is clearly in the final act of his
impressive career. What is less clear is exactly how much he has
left. In the Buckley fight, the offensive wrestling that had been a
cornerstone of Usman’s early career but had seemed to abandon him
as age and knee injuries took their toll was suddenly back. His
4-for-13 stat line for takedowns does not do justice to the visual
effect of seeing Usman shoot a smooth single-leg for what felt like
the first time in five years, nor to the fact that even failed
takedowns had the effect of keeping the supremely dangerous “New
Mansa” uncomfortable, minimizing the chances of him lining Usman up
for a killshot on the feet.
It will remain to be seen whether Usman’s takedown game is truly
back, especially a year later and against a larger opponent.
Without it, Usman’s arsenal is diminished but still impressive.
Under the tutelage of Trevor Wittman, his striking evolved from
solid to elite, with one of the best jabs in the UFC, a blistering
cross and above-average head movement. His power, which was
top-shelf at welterweight, remains considerable at
middleweight.
Even without a reliable level change for takedowns from outside,
Usman remains a devastating clinch fighter against the cage, where
he applies relentless pressure, throws constant short punches,
knees and foot stomps, and is always alert for a chance to dump his
opponent to the canvas or take his back standing. He is similarly
relentless and exhausting when he has an opponent on the
ground.
There are significant questions hanging over the heads of both
fighters in this main event: Was du Plessis’ flat performance
against Chimaev an aberration, or does it reflect a permanent crack
in his once-bulletproof confidence and fight IQ? Is Usman a shot
fighter, physically, and did his excellent outing against Buckley
obscure the fact that he simply isn’t built to deal with big-bodied
middleweights?
The answers to those questions and more await on Saturday, but the
wide betting line in du Plessis’ favor indicates a belief that even
if both men are at their best, most of the advantages lie with the
younger, bigger man who has far more elite experience in this
division. The prediction here is that we get the best possible
version of Usman—healthy, spry and wearing the extra 15 pounds
well—but that du Plessis is just a bit too big, too hard-hitting
and too difficult to take down. Du Plessis by clear, perhaps
dominant decision.
Jump To »
Du Plessis vs. Usman
Cannonier vs. Duncan
Hooper vs. Ramirez
McMillen vs. Montes
Ricci vs. Kline
The Prelims
