Updated:
Jul 16, 2026 , 04:26 PM ET
• 4 min read
The Phillies are in for a letdown in their first game back after hosting the All-Star Game, as our MLB expert explains.
Photo By – Reuters Connect. Mets SP Christian Scott.
Welcome back, folks! Here’s to the second half of the MLB season, which kicks off with Aaron Nola and the Phillies hosting Christian Scott and the Mets tonight.
ESPN has live coverage starting at 6:10 p.m. ET.
Let’s dive into my Mets vs. Phillies predictions and MLB picks for Thursday, July 16, where I see New York offering value as a +118 moneyline underdog.
Who will win Mets vs Phillies today: Mets moneyline (+118)
Despite the first game back from the All-Star break being in the City of Brotherly Love, I think this is a letdown spot for the Philadelphia Phillies. Especially with Aaron Nola on the mound, as he owns a 6.61 ERA over his last three outings.
Meanwhile, New York Mets right-hander Christian Scott has been more than serviceable over his last three starts, posting a 3.38 ERA, 4.14 xERA and 1.13 WHIP. Before the break, the Mets were on a tear, sporting a 117 wRC+, .334 wOBA, .172 ISO, and .757 OPS over their previous 12 games.
With all the theatrics and hype around the city over the last few days, this feels like a prime letdown spot for the Phillies. Pair that with the way Nola has been pitching lately, and the Mets should be in a great position to feast.
COVERS INTEL: The Phillies have managed just a 93 wRC+, .135 ISO, and .684 OPS over their last 12 games.
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Mets vs Phillies Over/Under pick: Over 9.5 (-103)
With how poorly Nola has pitched this season and how hot the Mets offense was heading into the break, I want to be on the over.
Batters-Box projects six combined elite-rated bats and three more with strong ratings. Scott owns a poor rating in the default settings, while Nola carries a poor rating in the current season dataset. Both pitchers also grade out poorly in matchup hard contact, wOBA, and ISO.
I think most of the damage comes from the Mets, but Scott is due to give up a few runs as well.
Colby Marchio’s 2026 Transparency Record
- 2026 MLB Season: 303-565, -7.30
Mets vs Phillies weather
This evening in Philadelphia should be a scorcher, with temperatures around 93 degrees at first pitch and winds blowing out to left field at 11 mph. There’s a 28% chance of precipitation, but the game should be just fine.
The heat should definitely give the long ball a boost tonight.
Mets vs Phillies odds
- Moneyline: Mets +118 | Phillies -122
- Run line: Mets +1.5 (-160) | Phillies -1.5 (+156)
- Over/Under: Over 9.5 (-102) | Under 9.5 (-100)
Mets vs Phillies trend
The Mets have covered the run line in nine of their last 16 games for +2.85 units and a 15% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Phillies.
How to watch Mets vs Phillies and game info
Location
Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA
Date
Thursday, July 16, 2026
First pitch
6:10 p.m. ET
TV
ESPN
Mets starting pitcher
Christian Scott
(2-1, 3.17 ERA)
Phillies starting pitcher
Aaron Nola
(3-6, 5.75 ERA)
Mets vs Phillies latest injuries
Mets: Luis Robert (Out), Marcus Semien (Out).
Phillies: No key injuries to report.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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