Just getting to tee it up at The Open Championship is a tremendous honor given the history and prestige of this tournament. However, none of the players going into this week at Royal Birkdale were looking for a British Open participation trophy. They came to Southport with intentions to contend and perhaps even to win. To do that, though, they first need to be sure to make the cut at The Open, so that they can even play the weekend of the year’s final major championship.
Much of the drama around the tournament has been less about the British Open cut line and more about the likes of Lucas Herbert and Sam Burns surging up the leaderboard by tying the lowest round in a major with twin 62s. However, the cut line is still in play for big names like Matt Fitzpatrick and several others at Birkdale, and everyone wants to know what the cut number will be.
Having said that, we have the latest projections that will be updating through the second round to see what The Open cut line will end up being. But first, let’s refresh on the rules and how many players will make it to see the weekend at Birkdale.
How many players make the cut at the British Open?
The Top 70 players and the players tied within the Top 70 after 36 holes will make the cut at The Open Championship this week at Royal Birkdale. Even with a massive field of players, the British Open has one of the more lenient cut rules in golf, especially among the four major championships. It’s worth noting that we’ve seen the cut rules evolve at The Open over the years as well — and with that, also important to say that the 10-shot rule, which means any player within 10 shots of the lead after 36 holes would also play the weekend, is no longer in effect for this tournament.
As for how The Open Championship cut rules compare to the other four major championships, this tournament has the same rules in place as the PGA Championship. However, those two majors allow the most players on the leaderboard to see the weekend. The U.S. Open cut features the Top 60 and ties, while the Masters Tournament and the limited field at Augusta pushes only the Top 50 and ties through to play the weekend.
Cut line prediction for The Open Championship
Jordan Spieth at The Open Championship | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect
The current projected cut line for the 2026 British Open is at +1 for the tournament at Royal Birkdale. At this point, that looks almost like a certainty with how the late-wave of the second round has performed thus far, and what the conditions in Southport, England have looked like throughout the afternoon. The models are currently forecasting that anything other than a 1-over cut number would be a massive surprise at this point.
Data Golf has the latest projections for the cut line at The Open and is forecasting a 92.7% chance of the number landing at +1. After being much higher earlier in the second round on Friday, there is now only a 6.7% chance that the cut line moves to even-par, and an even more minuscule 0.7% chance that the number would move to +2.
As of right now with the projected cut line, Justin Thomas and Brooks Koepka would end up playing the weekend right on the number, while some pre-tournament favorites like Tom Kim and Matt Fitzpatrick will be going home after posting scores of +3 and +4, respectively, through 36 holes. Meanwhile, the likes of Viktor Hovland, Tyrrell Hatton and Jordan Spieth, among others, will have to fight on Friday to play the weekend. That being said, Rory McIlroy and Ludvig Åberg were two of the biggest names in the early wave to fight their way comfortably off the cut number.
Projections will continue to update throughout the round.
British Open cut line for the last 5 years
Year (Course)
Cut Line
Number of Players to Make the Cut
2025 (Royal Portrush)
+1
70
2024 (Royal Troon)
+6
80
2023 (Royal Liverpool)
+3
76
2022 (St. Andrews)
E
83
2021 (Royal St. Georges)
+1
77
If the cut line at the 2026 Open Championship ends up at +1, it will be the third time in the last six years, despite being at different courses, that the number has ended up at that point after 36 holes. Royal Troon is by far the most demanding cut line that we’ve seen, given that it was well over par at 6-over that still got players in to see the weekend.
However, one thing to note is that the last British Open at Royal Birkdale back in 2017 resulted in a much more demanding test, at least according to the scoring, as the cut line ended up at +5 with 77 players making it into the weekend. It was much more of a bear to handled the elements that week than it has been over the first two rounds this year, so it makes sense why the cut line was so different.
With that being said, the final scoring in 2026 could end up quite similar to back in 2017, despite the multi-stroke difference in the cut lines. The weather is supposed to freshen up for the weekend at Royal Birkdale, while the course continues to bake out and play firm and fast. If that’s the case, it’s only going to get harder out there and should ultimately leave us with a similar winning score.
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