Democrat Annie Andrews entered South Carolina’s Senate race expecting to face one of the state’s most entrenched political figures. Just weeks later, the political landscape has been completely transformed.
The death of longtime Republican Senator Lindsey Graham on July 11 forced Republicans into an emergency special election process and created the state’s first open U.S. Senate seat in decades. On Monday, the race shifted again when Senator Darline Graham, Lindsey Graham’s sister and interim successor, announced she will seek a full six-year term with President Donald Trump’s backing.
Taking to X, Darline said in part, “Today, I’m stepping forward to carry my brother Lindsey’s legacy on behalf of the people of South Carolina. President Trump told me, ‘Run, Darline, Run.’ With his support, I’m running all the way through the finish line in November.”
Politics
The move raises a new question: Does the Republican shake-up improve Andrews’ chances, or does Darline Graham’s candidacy make a GOP hold more likely?
Newsweek reached out to Andrews and Graham on Monday.
Why Darline Graham’s Decision Matters
When South Carolina GOP Governor Henry McMaster appointed Darline Graham to serve the remainder of her brother’s term, many Republicans viewed her as a caretaker senator who would hold the seat until voters elected a successor.
That changed Friday when Trump publicly urged her to run and offered what he called his “Complete and Total Endorsement.” Graham accepted Monday, telling Fox News’ Sean Hannity: “I’ve made a decision. I’m in.”
Her entry immediately reshapes a Republican field that had already attracted several prominent contenders, including Representatives Ralph Norman and Russell Fry.
For Andrews, the development provides both opportunities and challenges.
The Case for Andrews
Before Lindsey Graham’s death, Andrews faced a well-funded incumbent who had represented South Carolina in the Senate since 2003 and had already secured the Republican nomination.
Now Republicans face a crowded August 11 special primary, with a runoff scheduled for August 25 if no candidate wins a majority.
Andrews told Newsweek last week that the turmoil primarily affects Republicans.
“The events of this weekend changed who I’m running against, but it didn’t change who I’m running for,” she said.
Andrews, 45, a pediatrician and mother of three, has said that while Republicans compete for the nomination, her campaign can continue building support among independents, suburban voters and moderate Republicans without facing an intraparty battle.
Her campaign also points to a June Impact Research poll that showed Lindsey Graham leading Andrews by just 48 percent to 45 percent before his death. While that was an internal Democratic poll, it suggested a closer race than many expected in a traditionally Republican state.
The Numbers Remain Difficult
The larger political environment still favors Republicans.
South Carolina has not elected a Democratic senator since 1998. At the presidential level, the state last voted for a Democratic nominee in 1976, when it backed Jimmy Carter.
Trump carried South Carolina by 18 points in 2024, nearly 12 points in 2020 and 14 points in 2016. Political forecasters had rated Lindsey Graham’s reelection bid as either “Safe Republican” or “Solid Republican” before his death.
Those fundamentals have not changed.
Political scientist Justin Vaughn of Coastal Carolina University recently told Newsweek that despite the Republican scramble, South Carolina remains a “strong Republican state” and the seat is still considered a safe GOP hold.
Prediction markets reflect that view. Before Darline Graham entered the race, Kalshi gave Republicans roughly an 85 percent chance of retaining the seat, while Polymarket put GOP odds above 80 percent.
The Hidden Factor: The Republican Primary
Ironically, Andrews’ chances may depend less on her own campaign than on what happens during the Republican primary.
An Emerson College survey conducted last week after Lindsey Graham’s death found no clear Republican front-runner. Norman led with 16 percent support, followed by businessman Mark Lynch at 13 percent. Representative Nancy Mace and Lieutenant Governor Pamela Evette each received 10 percent, while Fry polled at 9 percent. Darline Graham was at just 6 percent at the time. Eighteen percent remained undecided. The poll was conducted before Darline Graham entered the race and before Trump endorsed her candidacy.
The poll suggested Republicans were highly fragmented and that no candidate had consolidated support. Vaughn said the compressed election schedule would likely favor candidates with statewide name recognition, financial resources and, above all, support from Trump.
Nancy Mace Takes Herself Out of the Running
One of the biggest developments in the Republican field came Monday when Mace announced she would not seek the Senate seat.
“I’m not running for the Senate—because I have some unfinished business,” Mace wrote on X, saying she remains focused on efforts to secure justice for women and girls who “were told to stay silent.”
Mace’s decision removes one of the state’s highest-profile Republicans from contention. In the Emerson poll, she was tied for third place at 10 percent support, and her exit could further concentrate support among candidates such as Graham, Norman and Fry.
Does Trump’s Backing Change Everything?
Earlier this year, Trump’s endorsement helped shape South Carolina’s Republican gubernatorial primary. Polling from that race consistently showed candidates competing fiercely for Trump’s support.
That matters because Darline Graham now enters the contest with two powerful advantages: the Graham name and Trump’s endorsement.
She is also quickly attracting support from prominent Republicans beyond Trump. Senator Tom Cotton endorsed Graham on Monday, while Senate Majority Leader John Thune called her a “strong candidate” who carries on her brother’s legacy, though he said he would not endorse in the primary. The developments suggest Graham is rapidly emerging as a leading contender in the race despite entering it only hours earlier.
As Trump and Cotton have backed Graham, Republican Senators Rick Scott and Mike Lee have supported Norman in the race.
Unlike other candidates, however, Graham can appeal both to voters looking to preserve her brother’s legacy and to Trump loyalists who trust the president’s judgment.
As Vaughn previously observed, sitting in Lindsey Graham’s former seat would give Darline Graham “important advantages” if she decided to seek the office permanently.
Now she has.
What Andrews Needs to Happen
For Andrews to pull off an upset, several things likely need to occur simultaneously. First, Republicans would need a bruising primary and possibly a runoff that drains resources and exposes divisions within the party.
Second, Andrews would need to continue attracting independents and moderate Republicans who are uncomfortable with the GOP’s direction.
Third, national conditions would likely have to break heavily in Democrats’ favor for a state that Trump carried by 18 points in 2024.
The Bottom Line
Lindsey Graham’s death unquestionably made South Carolina’s Senate race more unpredictable. But unpredictable does not necessarily mean competitive.
Republicans have gone from defending a longtime incumbent to fighting over an open seat, yet the state’s strong Republican lean remains intact. Darline Graham’s decision to run—combined with Trump’s endorsement—may reduce some of the uncertainty that followed Lindsey Graham’s death.
For Andrews, the opportunity is real. But so are the obstacles.
The biggest question in South Carolina politics may no longer be whether Republicans hold the seat. Instead, it may be whether Darline Graham can turn Trump’s endorsement and the Graham family name into the Republican nomination. Once that question is answered, Andrews will know exactly what kind of battle awaits her.
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Edward T. Cummins and Anna Commander
