UPDATE: Thursday, 11:45 p.m.
Hurricane Fausto continued strengthening in the East Pacific and is headed west on a track that will bring it near or over the Hawaiian islands next week as a weak tropical storm, forecasters said.
As of 11 p.m. Thursday, Fausto had maximum sustained winds of 100 mph and was moving west at 15 mph and centered more than 1,600 miles east of Hilo, according to the National Hurricane Center in Miami. Hurricane-force winds extend up to 45 miles from the center and tropical storm-force winds of at least 39 mph extend up to 185 miles.
Fausto is forecast to enter the Central Pacific Sunday as a strong tropical storm, but is expected to steadily weaken as it approaches Hawaii early next week, according to the hurricane center.
While some forecast models have the storm as a remnant low near Hawaii, the official forecast has Fausto as a weak tropical storm near Hawaii, NHC officials said.
The latest five-day forecast map’s so-called cone of uncertainty includes all islands but Kauai on Tuesday, meaning the track of the storm could include a direct hit on those islands.
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Fausto’s maximum sustained winds are predicted to be about 40 mph by Tuesday, according to NHC’s official forecast.
“Fausto is forecast to approach the Hawaiian Islands during the early to the middle portion of next week,” weather officials said. “The risk of some impacts from wind and rainfall is increasing. However, it is too soon to determine the exact location or magnitude of these impacts, and interests there should continue to monitor the progress of this storm.”
6:20 p.m.
Hurricane Fausto strengthened over the East Pacific today, packing 90 mph maximum sustained winds about 1,700 miles east of Hilo.
At 5 p.m., Fausto was moving west at 15 mph with hurricane-force winds extending up to 45 miles from the center and tropical storm-force winds of 39 mph or more extending up to 185 miles.
Fausto is forecast to be a weakening hurricane this weekend as it approaches and enters the Central Pacific, still hundreds of miles east of Hawaii, according to the National Hurricane Center in Miami.
The latest five-day forecast map has Fausto as a weak tropical storm north of Hawaii island by Tuesday. But the map’s so-called cone of uncertainty includes the Big Island and all of Maui County on Tuesday, meaning the track of the storm could include a direct hit on those islands. Fausto’s maximum sustained winds are predicted to be about 45 mph by Tuesday.
“Fausto is forecast to approach the Hawaiian islands during the early to the middle portion of next week,” forecasters said in the 5 p.m. update. “The risk of some impacts from wind and rainfall is increasing. However, it is too soon to determine the exact location or magnitude of these impacts, and interests there should continue to monitor the progress of this storm.”
Still, NHC said that some storm model guidance suggests “a faster pace of weakening than forecast, including the possible degeneration of Fausto into a remnant low while approaching the Hawaiian islands.”
While Fausto’s rain and wind impact to Hawaii is uncertain, the storm is expected to bring high surf to east shores of all islands late this weekend into early next week, potentially reaching advisory levels.
A high surf advisory, meanwhile, remains in effect for south shores of all islands through 6 p.m. Friday, with waves reaching 8 to 12 feet, as a south swell unrelated to Fausto reaches the state. Weather officials warn that strong breaking waves and dangerous currents will make swimming treacherous along southern coastlines through Friday morning.
A small craft advisory is also in effect for all Hawaii waters through 6 p.m. Friday as easterly tradewinds gust between 15 and 25 mph, reaching up to 35 mph in windier channels.
High pressure north of the state is expected to shift westward and weaken slightly by Sunday evening, allowing tradewinds to ease somewhat heading into next week.
11 a.m.
Hurricane Fausto strengthened slightly today while remaining far east of Hawaii, though forecasters continue to expect the storm to generate larger surf along east-facing shores late this weekend and possibly influence the islands’ weather by the middle of next week.
As of 11 a.m., Fausto was a Category 1 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 85 mph, up from 80 mph earlier today, according to the National Hurricane Center in Miami. The storm was centered about 1,840 miles east of Hilo and moving west at 14 mph.
Forecasters said Fausto could fluctuate in strength through today before beginning a gradual weakening trend that is expected to continue through the weekend as it moves over cooler waters and into an environment with stronger wind shear.
Hurricane-force winds extend up to 45 miles from Fausto’s center, while tropical-storm-force winds reach outward as far as 185 miles.
Current forecast tracks continue to show Fausto moving steadily west into the Central Pacific this weekend. While the forecast still brings the weakening system near or north of the Hawaiian islands by the middle of next week, the National Weather Service stressed it remains too early to determine any direct impacts.
“Tropical Cyclone Fausto (or its remnants) may impact the state towards the middle of next week, but it’s too early to determine potential impacts,” Honolulu forecasters said in this morning’s forecast discussion.
Confidence is higher regarding marine impacts.
The National Weather Service continues to expect swells generated by Fausto to build surf along Hawaii’s east-facing shores late this weekend into early next week, potentially reaching advisory levels.
In the meantime, Hawaii’s weather will remain dominated by locally breezy to windy tradewinds produced by strong high pressure far north of the state.
Forecasters expect generally stable weather through the weekend, with isolated to scattered showers favoring windward and mauka areas while leeward communities remain mostly dry.
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Hurricane Fausto continues to move westward across the East Pacific today, with weather officials tracking its long-range path toward the Central Pacific.
While the storm remains far east of Hawaii, forecasters expect it to push building surf to east shores late this weekend and potentially influence island weather by the middle of next week.
At 5 a.m. today, Fausto was centered about 1,950 miles east of Hilo with maximum sustained winds of 80 mph while moving west at 13 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center in Miami. Fausto is expected to continue on the same general track over the next several days.
Some minor intensity fluctuations are possible today, followed by a slow weakening trend over the weekend as the system moves into cooler waters and an environment with higher wind shear, forecasters said. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles from the center, while tropical-storm-force winds stretch outward up to 185 miles.
Computer models track the system near or just north of the Hawaiian islands during the middle of next week.
The National Hurricane Center projects Fausto will weaken to a tropical storm Saturday or Sunday.
Forecasters emphasized that any northward deviation in track would cause Fausto to weaken even faster than currently predicted. Fausto is forecast to enter the Central Pacific basin early Sunday morning.
While Fausto approaches from the east, Hawaii residents are experiencing breezy tradewinds and hazardous ocean conditions driven by localized high pressure and a separate south swell.
A high surf advisory remains in effect for south shores of all islands through 6 a.m. Friday, with breaking waves reaching 8 to 12 feet. Weather officials warn that strong breaking waves and dangerous currents will make swimming treacherous along southern coastlines through Friday morning.
A small craft advisory is also in effect for all Hawaii waters through 6 a.m. Friday as easterly tradewinds gust between 15 and 25 mph, reaching up to 35 mph in windier channels.
Weather for Kauai through Maui County today will feature mostly sunny skies and breezy conditions, with scattered showers over windward and mauka areas and isolated leeward rain. Hawaii island should see partly sunny conditions with scattered showers on the windward side today, while the leeward side will be mostly sunny with isolated showers this afternoon. High temperatures are expected to be in the mid-80s to 90 degrees, with lows in the 70s for all islands over the next few days.
High pressure north of the state is expected to shift westward and weaken slightly by Sunday evening, allowing tradewinds to ease somewhat heading into next week.
