BETTING ODDS: Tuchalov (-750); Ribeiro (+525)
Ribeiro will be desperate to show that he is better than his 2-5
UFC record when he welcomes yet another undefeated phenom to the
Octagon in this light heavyweight feature.
To be clear: Ribeiro is better than his record in the
promotion implies, but he simply cannot get any kind of break from
the UFC’s matchmakers. Of the five men to beat Ribeiro in the UFC,
three were undefeated. Azamat
Murzakanov was a Top 10 contender and the other four were all
highly touted prospects, especially Abdul-Rakhman
Yakhyaev, who choked him out in his last appearance in
April.
“The Gorilla,” as his nickname suggests, is very strong and has
really long arms, and most of his offense springs from there. He is
a very hard hitter who throws a few basic combinations and loads up
heavily on his punches. His defensive wrestling is poor, but he has
a quick and vicious guillotine choke, and he is surprisingly fluid
and quick on the ground for someone who can be a bit herky-jerky on
the feet.
Ribeiro’s most glaring issues are his striking defense and
durability. He gets hit a lot in order to land his own offense, and
while that worked in Brazilian regional shows, against UFC-level
opposition, he has gotten himself knocked out or choked out in the
first round over and over.
Tuchalov is yet another undefeated youngster apparently scheduled
to wipe his feet on Ribeiro like a mat in front of the door to the
UFC light heavyweight division, but in terms of his own prospect
upside, the 26-year-old Dagestani is no Yakhyaev. Tuchalov’s brief
regional career came against the lowest of low-level opposition.
How low? His best win, easily, came in his last fight in UAE
Warriors against Caio
Machado, a decent Brazilian 205-pounder who went 0-3 in the UFC
two years ago…including a loss to Ribeiro in his last Octagon
outing.
Tuchalov is a tall light heavyweight, long-limbed but not massively
muscled. He tends to fight orthodox, pawing out with his lead hand,
then exploding with big single strikes, including flying knees and
huge kicks. He has good power, but suffers from a litany of bad
defensive habits, including keeping his head on the center line
with his chin in the air and backing straight up when pressured,
that will get him clocked against even mid-level UFC fighters.
Tuchalov has a solid wrestling and grappling game. He favors inside
takedowns, including a body lock that he follows by landing in side
control or sliding directly into full mount. From there, he has
heavy ground strikes and is adept at taking back control, which
accounted for his lone submission win to date.
Ribeiro has far, far more of a chance to spring the upset here than
the ridiculous betting line implies. Whatever his flaws as a
fighter, the Brazilian has enormous reach and power to match it,
while Tuchalov has been hit cleanly by far lesser opponents. It is
not at all hard to picture Ribeiro clipping the undefeated newcomer
in a brawl in the first two minutes of this fight. I lean towards
Tuchalov, as he is younger, might be a bit bigger, and Ribeiro has
all of the same defensive problems. The pick is Tuchalov by Round 1
knockout, but if I were a betting man, Ribeiro would be worth a
flier, and any inside-the-distance prop bet seems like a solid
investment.
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Walker vs. Petersen
Jacoby vs. Said
Ponzinibbio vs. Patterson
Bonfim vs. Sola
Ribeiro vs. Tuchalov
Aliev vs. Davis
Gibson vs. Hussein
