Magomed Tuchalov vs. Brendson Ribeiro prediction, odds, pick for UFC Abu Dhabi appeared first on ClutchPoints. Add ClutchPoints as a Preferred Source by clicking here.
The UFC is back oversees from Abu Dhabi as we bring you a prediction and pick for this upcoming tilt in the Light Heavyweight (205) Division. UAE’s own Magomed Tuchalov will make his UFC debut against Brazil’s Brendson Ribeiro in a scrap that should end inside the distance. Check our UFC Abu Dhabi odds series for the Tuchalov-Ribeiro prediction and pick.
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Magomed Tuchalov (6-0) makes his UFC debut after lastly beating Caio Machado for a title belt over at UAE Warriors. He’ll debut on home soil and has a perfect streak of six finishes through six wins, notching each inside of two full rounds. Tuchalov comes in the significant favorite standing 6-foot-4 with an unknown reach.
Brendson Ribeiro (17-10) has gone 2-5 inside the UFC since 2024, falling to Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev for his third-straight loss over the previous year. With just one of his UFC bouts seeing the final bell, Ribeiro will have his back against the wall as the underdog. He stands 6-foot-3 with an 81-inch reach.
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UFC Abu Dhabi Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
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UFC Abu Dhabi Odds: Magomed Tuchalov-Brendson Ribeiro Odds
Magomed Tuchalov: -85
Brendson Ribeiro: +575
Over 1.5 rounds: +180
Under 1.5 rounds: -238
Why Magomed Tuchalov Will Win
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Last Fight: (W) Caio Machado – TKO (punch, R1)
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Finishes: 5 KO/TKO, 1 SUB
Magomed Tuchalov will make his UFC debut under favorable conditions in the United Arab Emirates where trains out of. He’s fought four times under UAE Warriors over the last year and makes his UFC debut just three years into his pro MMA career. He began with a 6-1 amateur record that included three TKO finishes and three title wins. Given the betting odds, he should be poised to end this fight in similar fashion as the favorite.
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Tuchalov is very comfortable in all areas of the fight and will usually go wherever his opponent decides to take it. He’s very accurate on his counter-striking and is always looking to catch an opponent’s kick and throw them off balance. On the ground, Tuchalov does a great job of rolling through transitions and using his strength to end up in advantageous position.
His cardio will continue to be a question until he can turn in a complete three rounds at this level, but his pace and output in previous fights suggests he’s capable of conserving his gas tank and not expending himself early. Against a chaotic striker like Ribeiro, Tuchalov should look gauge the distance and allow his opponent to make mistakes while lunging forward into his takedown attempts.
Why Brendson Ribeiro Will Win
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Last Fight: (L) Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev – SUB (rear naked choke, R1)
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Finishes: 9 KO/TKO, 7 SUB
Brendson Ribeiro dropped yet another fight inside the distance against his last opponent, falling victim to the rear naked choke after making a crucial mistake and giving up his back. It was the first submission loss Ribeiro suffered in the UFC and his first since 2016, so expect a much more motivated showing out of him in this one. Despite being billed the significant underdog, Ribeiro will be a dangerous opponent to deal with as he avoids a fourth-straight loss.
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Ribeiro possesses a ton of athleticism for this division and a strong frame to deal with dominant grapplers like Tuchalov. His takedown defense could use some work at 21%, but he’s far more concerned with the 3.04 significant strikes per minute he’s landing on opponents. Since his arrival to the UFC, Ribeiro has fought with a “kill or be killed” mentality that has led to exciting wins and tough losses.
It’s hard to say whether a similar tactic will work during this fight, but there’s no denying Ribeiro shows flashes of a great striker when he’s able to settle into a rhythm. Furthermore, he’s very active with his kicking game and can certainly damage the legs of Tuchalov early if he makes it a focal point of his striking.
Final Magomed Tuchalov-Brendson Ribeiro Prediction & Pick
This fight should be very tense through the opening minutes as Brendson Ribeiro will be hunting for the knockout on the feet. Magomed Tuchalov has a ton of pressure behind him fighting in his home country, but his previous performances as a champion suggest he should come into this debut with a level-headed game plan.
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Given Ribeiro’s lack of takedown defense, this fight could hit the ground quickly as Tuchalov engages in his ground-and-pound techniques. I don’t see Ribeiro offering much resistance while he’s there, so his only chance to win will be to keep this fight on the feet.
Still, it won’t be enough to get past Tuchalov as he should notch a late submission or TKO in this one. Contrary to the odds, I think the total over in rounds as Ribeiro will be doing everything in his power to extend this fight into the later rounds.
Final Magomed Tuchalov-Brendson Ribeiro Prediction & Pick: Magomed Tuchalov (-850); OVER 1.5 Rounds (+180)
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