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The Boston Red Sox are sending left-hander Connelly Early to the Washington Nationals for infielder Curtis Mead in a rare swap of major leaguers by two teams with playoff aspirations.
The Nationals and Red Sox announced the trade Sunday morning.
At first glance, it seems Boston got robbed. A 24-year old starter with five years of control, traded for a 25-year-old hitter having the first good season of his career, it looks lopsided on the surface.
In reality, this is a swap of two cheap players, both under club control, with each team getting something it hasn’t been able to find internally. Boston desperately needed the bat. Washington needs arms.
Here is how each side did, nine days out from the Aug. 3 MLB trade deadline.
Red Sox: B-minus
Entering play Sunday, Boston is 53-50 and holds the second American League wild card. It has gotten here with half a lineup.
Roman Anthony has not played since May 4. He tore ligaments and a tendon in his right ring finger, and as of two days ago, he still had not swung a bat. Trevor Story, Marcelo Mayer and Triston Casas are on the injured list too. The Red Sox rank 28th in the majors in home runs. Chief baseball officer Craig Breslow has said the deadline is complicated because he does not want to trade for a job an injured player is about to take back.
Mead answers that. He is a right-handed bat hitting .256 with a .351 on-base percentage and a .505 slugging percentage. He hit no home runs in 41 games with the White Sox last season. He has 17 this year. He plays third and first, so Boston can DH him now and move him around later.
He is also not going anywhere. Mead does not reach arbitration until after the 2027 season. This is not a rental if the Red Sox want to hang on to him.
There is a red flag in that Mead’s exit velocity does not seem to support a .505 slugging percentage. He hit .238 in 152 games across parts of three seasons with Tampa Bay and the White Sox before this year. He has been good since March, but never this good before in his career.
However, his hard-hit rate and barrel percentage are both above average this season and his .458 expected slugging percentage, via Statcast, still puts him in the 77th percentile among MLB hitters.
Nationals: A-minus
Early was 7-5 with a 3.44 ERA in 17 starts and 91 2/3 innings before he left his June 30 start with elbow inflammation. He was pitching in a rotation already without Garrett Crochet, Ranger Suarez and Johan Oviedo. Boston just traded a starter it may want back in September.
Nationals GM Paul Toboni spent a decade with the Red Sox. He ran the draft that took Connelly Early. Toboni is buying a pitcher with an elbow question and he has Boston’s own scouting file in his head.
Early is 24 and controllable for five more seasons beyond this one and would not reach arbitration until the 2028-29 offseason at the earliest. Washington is 53-52 and third in the National League East.
Mead is cheap, productive and controlled through 2030. This was not a salary dump, and it was not selling high on a hot streak. Toboni clearly wanted Early and knew what he was getting for the future.
Dr. Keith Meister delivered a second opinion on Early’s elbow this month and found nothing structurally wrong. He got back on the mound this week for a light session.
