Democrats are facing an uphill battle to take back control of the Senate in the 2026 midterms, as polls show competitive races for Republican-held seats in states like Alaska, Maine, North Carolina and Texas with less than 100 days to go.
Historically, the midterms are viewed as a referendum on the sitting president, and President Donald Trump’s approval rating has fallen amid economic concerns tied to the cost of living and inflation. This has given Democrats hope about their chances of expanding the Senate battleground to flip more conservative states to win a majority in the midterm elections.
Bernadette Breslin, press secretary for the National Republican Senatorial Committee, told Newsweek, “Democrats like Troy Jackson and Josh Turek are the new faces of the Left’s socialist takeover, campaigning on an agenda to raise taxes, green-light reckless spending, and make life even less affordable for American families.”
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Senator Kirsten Gillibrand, a New York Democrat, wrote in a statement that Democrats are “well-positioned” in the Senate.
“Across the map, we have strong Democratic candidates running formidable campaigns laser-focused on the issues that matter most to voters, from the affordability crisis that Republicans created to the health care access cliff Republicans built when they passed their billionaire tax giveaway bill one year ago,” she said.
Democrats Face Difficult Senate Map Despite Favorable Polls
Currently, Republicans hold a 53-47 majority in the Senate and are eyeing four Democratic-held seats: those in Trump-won Georgia and Michigan, as well as Minnesota and New Hampshire, states he narrowly lost.
Democrats view GOP-held seats in Maine, which Trump lost by about 7 points, and North Carolina, which he won by about 3 points, as top targets. No other GOP-held seats are up for grabs in states he either won by single digits or lost in 2024.
Even if Democrats hold all of their current seats and flip those two, they would still be held to a 51-49 minority, so they must win in double-digit Trump states to win a majority.
Because of that structural hurdle, Republicans have been viewed as the favorites to retain control of the Senate—but that is not seen as a certainty, as several recent polls have given Democrats a wide lead on the generic ballot.
The latest poll from Emerson College, for instance, gave Democrats an 11-point lead; a Fox News poll gave Democrats an 8-point lead. Democrats are hoping for such a lead in November that would put states like Alaska, Iowa, Ohio and Texas in play.
As of Monday, prediction markets favored Republicans; they had a 55 percent chance of holding onto Senate control on Kalshi and a 56 percent chance on Polymarket. Their chances on Kalshi have narrowed over the past month; on June 27, Republicans had a 58 percent chance of retaining a Senate majority.
The following map displays what Kalshi shows for each Senate race that the Cook Political Report views as a toss-up or in its Lean or Likely categories. Of those states, Democrats are best-positioned in Georgia and North Carolina, while Republicans have their best likelihood in Nebraska, where an independent candidate is running.
Alaska
Alaska voted for Trump in 2024 by 14 points and has not voted Democratic on the presidential level since 1964, so it’s been a reliably Republican state for decades. However, the candidacy of former Representative Mary Peltola, the only Democrat who has won statewide in recent years, has given the party hope about their chances of flipping the state.
Alaska has also given Republicans more narrow margins in recent cycles; Trump won it by 10 points in 2020 and 15 points in 2016. Democrats lost the state by 14 points in 2012, 22 points in 2008, 26 points in 2004 and 31 points in 2000.
The latest poll from The New York Times and Siena College showed Republican Senator Dan Sullivan leading Peltola by 2 points, 47 percent to 45 percent, with 2 percent backing another candidate and 5 percent unsure. It surveyed 593 likely voters from June 15-29, 2026.
An Alaska Survey Research poll, however, showed Peltola with 49.4 percent to Sullivan’s 44.2 percent. It surveyed 1,393 likely voters from June 4-7, 2026 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
It is rated a toss-up by Cook.
Georgia
In Georgia, Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff is set to face Representative Mike Collins in the nation’s newest swing state in November. Collins won the GOP primary, but polls give Ossoff an advantage heading into the general election.
Trump’s 2-point victory in the key swing state gives Republicans belief that it could be a potential target, but Democrats believe Ossoff’s popularity and Trump’s low approval rating should keep the seat in their hands.
The latest surveys show Ossoff, also viewed as a potential 2028 presidential candidate, with a lead as the Cook Political Report has shifted the race to Lean Democrat.
An AARP poll found Ossoff leading Collins by 9 points, 52 percent to 43 percent. The poll was conducted on behalf of AARP by Fabrizio Ward, a Republican pollster, and Impact Research, a Democratic pollster. It surveyed 1,060 likely voters across Georgia from July 13-16, 2026 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
A recent Wick survey showed Ossoff up 4 points, 46.7 percent to 42.9 percent. It surveyed 1,175 likely voters from June 27 to June 30, 2026, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points.
A poll for Fox News put Ossoff’s support at 56 percent compared to Collins’ 43 percent—a 13-point margin in the competitive race. It was conducted by Beacon Research and Shaw & Company Research among 1,002 registered voters from June 23 to 27.
Trump carried Georgia by about 2.2 points in the 2024 presidential election, after Democrat Joe Biden won the state by roughly 0.2 points in 2020. Trump won Georgia by about 5 points in 2016, while Republican former Senator Mitt Romney won it by roughly 8 points in 2012 and late Republican Senator John McCain by about 5 points in 2008.
Iowa
In Iowa, a state Trump won by about 13 points, Republican Representative Ashley Hinson is running against Democratic state Representative Josh Turek to succeed Republican Senator Joni Ernst, who is retiring at the end of her term.
Once a battleground, Iowa has shifted toward Republicans, but Democrats believe economic fallout of the Iran war and tariffs could make the state competitive.
The latest poll from the Times showed Hinson up 2 points, 48 percent to 46 percent. It surveyed 600 likely voters from June 15-27. Meanwhile, a Fox News poll showed Turek up 4 points, 50 percent to 46 percent. It surveyed 1,003 registered voters from June 23-27.
The Cook Political Report views the race as Lean Republican.
Maine
Democrats in Maine over the weekend formally selected former Maine Senate President Troy Jackson as their Senate nominee after Graham Platner withdrew from the race after an allegation of sexual assault, which he denied to Newsweek.
Jackson’s candidacy offers a potential reset for Democrats, who were deeply concerned about their chances in what they think should be a top pickup opportunity if Platner had stayed in the race.
He is running against Republican Senator Susan Collins, viewed as a formidable candidate who has won by wide margins in the past despite the state’s Democratic lean. She has benefited from personal popularity and a moderate image, but Democrats are hoping to tie her to Trump to sink her chances. Republicans have sought to tie Jackson to Platner, as the new nominee supported him in the primary prior to the assault allegations.
Only one independent poll has been made public since the candidate switch. A University of New Hampshire poll showed Jackson up 3 points, 49 percent to 46 percent. It surveyed 1,178 likely voters from July 15-20.
The Cook Political Report classifies the race as a toss-up.
Michigan
The contours of the Michigan race aren’t quite defined, as the primary is set for August. Trump won Michigan by less than 2 percentage points, so both parties view the state as competitive regardless of the national environment.
On the Republican side, former Representative Mike Rogers is viewed as the likely candidate for the general election. Democrats are set to choose between Representative Haley Stevens, a moderate, and public health official Dr. Abdul El-Sayed, a progressive, in the August primary, which has grown increasingly contentious in recent weeks.
The latest poll from Quantus Insights pointed to a close race.
Stevens led Rogers by only 1.4 points, 45.1 percent to 43.7 percent, while El-Sayed led Rogers by 1.1 points, 45.2 percent to 44.1 percent. It surveyed 947 Michigan voters from June 29-30, 2026.
It’s rated a toss-up by the Cook Political Report.
Minnesota
Democrats are expected to have an advantage in the Minnesota Senate race as Democratic Senator Tina Smith retires. Trump lost Minnesota by about 4 points in 2024, and last voted Republican in 1972.
In the Democratic primary, Lieutenant Governor Peggy Flanagan and Representative Angie Craig are facing off in a contested race. Several Republicans are running, but retired sports broadcaster Michele Tafoya has led primary polling.
For the general election, a poll from The Minnesota Star-Tribune, KARE-11 and University of Minnesota Hubbard School of Journalism found that 49 percent of Minnesotans would vote for a Democratic candidate for Senate, compared to 41 percent who said they would vote for a Republican. It surveyed 800 likely voters between June 8-10, 2026.
The Cook Political Report views the race as Likely Democratic.
Nebraska
Nebraska GOP Senator Pete Ricketts is facing a challenge from independent Dan Osborn. Osborn lost to GOP Senator Deb Fischer by less than seven points, despite Trump carrying the state by 20 points and the state’s status as reliably Republican.
A Tavern Research poll found Osborn leading Ricketts in a two-way race by 5 points, 47 percent to 42 percent. It surveyed 1,165 likely voters from May 8-11, 2026.
Democrat Cindy Burbank won her party’s primary but will not appear on the ballot in November, opening up a two-way race. Although Osborn does not have ties to either party, he is viewed as less conservative than Ricketts and has received support from Democrats in the state. Burbank’s withdrawal from the race could prevent a split among anti-Ricketts voters.
The Cook Political Report views the race as Likely Republican.
New Hampshire
New Hampshire backed former Vice President Kamala Harris by nearly 3 points in 2024, but the retirement of longtime Senator Jeanne Shaheen, a Democrat, has left an open race that Republicans see as a possible flip opportunity.
Democratic Representative Chris Pappas is viewed as the Democratic front-runner, while former Senators John Sununu and Scott Brown are running in the Republican primary.
The latest Saint Anselm College poll gave Pappas a lead against each candidate. He led Brown by 12 points, 48 percent to 36 percent and Sununu by 6 points, 47 percent to 41 percent. It was conducted from June 24-25, 2026, among 1,614 registered voters across the state.
A University of New Hampshire poll showed Pappas up 14 points over Brown, 52 percent to 38 percent and 3 points over Sununu, 47 percent to 44 percent. It surveyed 2,232 likely voters from June 18-23.
The Cook Political Report classifies the race as Lean Democrat.
North Carolina
Democrats haven’t won a Senate race in North Carolina since 2008, but former Governor Roy Cooper’s candidacy as a popular, statewide-elected official has fueled party optimism about their chances of winning in November against Republican Michael Whatley. The race is now viewed as Lean Democrat by the Cook Political Report. Senator Thom Tillis, the incumbent, is retiring at the end of his term.
The latest poll from the Times showed Cooper up 7 points, 50 percent to 43 percent. It surveyed 601 likely voters from June 15-27. A Public Policy Polling survey, conducted among 759 voters from July 10-11, showed Cooper leading by 4 points, 48 percent to 44 percent.
Ohio
In Ohio, former Senator Sherrod Brown is seeking a comeback after losing in 2024. He is challenging Republican Senator Jon Husted, who was appointed to replace Vice President JD Vance. Ohio was once a major battleground but has shifted rightward over the past decade, backing Trump by about 11 points in 2024.
The Times found Husted with a 3-point lead, 50 percent to 47 percent. It surveyed 601 likely voters from June 15-28, 2026. An AARP poll showed Brown up 3 points, 48 percent to 45 percent. It surveyed 800 registered voters from June 14-16, 2026.
The Cook Political Report rates Ohio as a toss-up.
Texas
Texas backed Trump by 14 points last year, but Democrats believe state Representative James Talarico will be competitive against Republican nominee Paxton, the state attorney general who has faced some scandals and an impeachment in the state’s GOP-led legislature.
The Lone Star State has for decades been viewed as solidly conservative, but it has shifted toward becoming less so due to growth in cities like Austin, Dallas and Houston, as well as their suburbs becoming more competitive. However, rightward shifts among the state’s Latino population boosted Trump’s performance in the state in 2024.
A poll from the Times showed a tight race with each candidate receiving 47 percent support. It surveyed 656 likely voters from June 19-27, 2026.
A Texas Politics Project poll found Paxton up by a single point, 43 percent to 42 percent. It surveyed 1,200 registered voters from June 5-12, 2026.
The race is viewed as Lean Republican by the Cook Political Report.
Why Democrats Believe They Can Flip the Senate
Trump’s approval rating is a major reason Democrats believe they can compete for control of the Senate in this year’s midterms. His popularity has declined since he returned to office in January 2025 due to economic concerns, including tariffs, the cost of living and higher gas prices amid the war in Iran.
Trump campaigned on bringing prices down as the country grappled with a high inflation rate in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, and his focus on cost-of-living issues helped carry him to victory in key swing states. But as the midterms approach, polling shows most Americans remain unhappy with the state of the economy and Trump’s presidency overall.
A new poll from YouGov and CBS News found that 61 percent of Americans disapprove of Trump, while 39 percent approve of him. Among independents, 27 percent approved of Trump compared to 73 percent who disapproved of him in the poll.
When it came to the economy specifically, 35 percent of respondents said they approved of Trump compared to 65 percent who disapproved of him. It surveyed 2,193 adults from July 22-24, 2026.
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Jason Lemon and Sam Wilson.
Correction 7/27/26, 1:09 p.m.: This article was corrected to reflect that Whatley is running against Cooper in North Carolina following Tillis’ retirement.
