Updated:
Jul 28, 2026 , 07:36 PM ET
• 4 min read
With key defensive playmakers sidelined on both sides, expect a high-scoring battle as both offenses capitalize on the missing rim protection and perimeter defense.
EXPERT PICK – TOTAL
NY @ LA o183.5 (-110)
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Photo By – Reuters Connect. New York Liberty center Jonquel Jones (35) takes a three point shot in the third quarter against the Chicago Sky at Barclays Center.
The New York Liberty lay 4.5 points on the road tonight against the Los Angeles Sparks at Crypto.com Arena.
With injuries mounting on both sides, Tuesday night’s Liberty vs. Sparks predictions and WNBA picks targets a high-scoring affair on July 28.
- UPDATE: Added Breanna Stewart prop!
Liberty vs Sparks prediction
Liberty vs Sparks best bet: Over 183.5 (-110)
The Los Angeles Sparks operate at a frantic 99.96 pace while holding a second-to-last 112.3 Defensive NET over their past five games.
They bleed 42.5 points in the paint per game, offering Breanna Stewart and Jonquel Jones endless opportunities to score.
Conversely, a depleted New York Liberty rotation missing Leonie Fiebich and Satou Sabally lacks perimeter depth, surrendering 45.1% from deep and 16.4 fast-break points per contest during this stretch.
With eight of their last 10 head-to-head meetings going Over, expect high offensive volume and very little defense.
Play the Over up to 184.5.
COVERS INTEL: Across their last five games, the Sparks and Liberty rank 11th and 12th best, respectively, in defensive net rating.
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Liberty vs Sparks same-game parlay
Los Angeles’ 112.3 defensive rating and league-worst paint defense leaking oil (42.5 PITP) will give Breanna Stewart another opportunity to score at least 22 points for the sixth time in eight games.
The Sparks’ aggressive help defense collapses inward, leaving WNBA All-Star MVP Jonquel Jones open at the top of the key, where she’s drilled two or more triples in three of her last five games.
Liberty vs Sparks SGP
- Over 183.5
- Breanna Stewart Over 21.5 points
- Jonquel Jones Over 1.5 threes
Want more basketball parlays? Check out our WNBA parlay picks page!
Liberty vs Sparks player prop pick
Breanna Stewart Over 30.5 points + rebounds (-125)
With Fiebich and Sabally sidelined, Stewart will see massive usage against Los Angeles’ porous interior defense.
Stewart has cleared this 30.5 threshold in four of her last five contests, averaging 23.6 points and 8.0 rebounds during that stretch, and meets one of the worst interior defenses in the WNBA.
Expect 20+ field-goal attempts and heavy double-digit rebounding opportunities for the former UConn star tonight.
Buy up to 31.5; pass line at 32.0.
Phil Naessens’ 2026 Transparency Record
- Best bet: 12-10, +0.43 units
- SGP: 6-16, +6.10 units
- Player prop: 1-8, -7.30 units
Liberty vs Sparks odds
- Spread: New York -4.5 | Los Angeles +4.5
- Moneyline: New York -170 | Los Angeles +145
- Over/Under: Over 183.5 | Under 183.5
Liberty vs Sparks trend
The Over is 5-0 in the New York Liberty’s previous five games. Find more WNBA betting trends.
How to watch Liberty vs Sparks
Location
Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, CA
Date
Tuesday, July 28, 2026
Tip-off
10:00 p.m. ET
TV
WWOR, SPECSN
Liberty vs Sparks latest injuries
Liberty: Leonie Fiebich (Out), Satou Sabally (Out), Marine Johannes (GTD).
Sparks: Kelsey Plum (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Prior to joining Covers in 2022, Phil Naessens spent 38 years as a resident tennis pro in Las Vegas, Mykonos, and Corfu, Greece. He’s the past host of the Phil Naessens Show (Armed Forces Radio), and currently hosts the Crush and Rush Tennis Podcast.
Phil is the author of the Betting 101 series (MLB, NFL, NCAAF, and Tennis) and has written for numerous publications, including Advance Local, SB Nation, FanSided, and Lenny Melnick Fantasy Sports.
His favorite sports to bet on are tennis, MLB, WNBA, Euro men’s and women’s hoops, NCAA sports, NFL, and the NBA. Phil has numerous betting accounts in the US and Europe, and his best advice is to line shop for the best value possible.
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