Marquette poll’s Charles Franklin talks about changes in methodology
Marquette University Law School poll director Charles Franklin explains what changes he’s made to the survey to reach more respondents.
Francesca Hong expanded her lead in the Democratic primary for governor, with Mandela Barnes and David Crowley each trailing at least 20 points behind her, according to a Marquette University Law School poll released just under two weeks before the Aug. 11 election.
Among Democratic primary voters surveyed, 38% said they will vote for Hong, followed by 16% for Barnes, 7% for Crowley, 2% for Joel Brennan and 2% for Kelda Roys. Another 34% still hadn’t decided who to vote for.
In Marquette’s previous poll released July 22, Hong stood at 27%, Barnes at 18%, Brennan at 5% and Roys at 2% when the second choices of Sara Rodriguez supporters were allocated to other candidates following her exit from the race. Another 48% were undecided in that poll, and Crowley was not included as an option.
Poll director Charles Franklin decided to do another poll because Marquette’s mid-July survey was conducted before Rodriguez dropped out and Crowley got back in with the endorsement of Gov. Tony Evers, upending the race. Marquette didn’t originally plan to do another poll before the Aug. 11 primary.
Marquette conducted the new poll between July 22 and 27, so it did not capture any changes in voter opinion after the first and only televised debate among the Democratic candidates July 28. The poll surveyed 407 registered Democratic primary voters with a margin of error of +/- 6.6 percentage points.
Marquette attempted to re-interview all Democratic primary voters who participated in their earlier poll, conducted from July 8 to 16, to evaluate how opinions changed. The poll had a 59% success rate in reaching them again; 153 respondents were brand-new.
When Marquette pressed undecided Democratic voters about which candidate they were leaning to, Hong’s lead rose to 46%, compared to 21% for Barnes, 11% for Crowley, 4% for Brennan and 4% for Roys. Another 14% said they were truly undecided.
Franklin said including those leaners is historically a “decent predictor of where the vote ends up,” but cautioned that leaners still aren’t committed to a candidate.
“Hong seems to be consolidating support, especially if you include those who are leaning towards her,” Franklin said. “I’m not trying to diminish the size of her lead, but I think it’s prudent to also think about, where is there room for movement and how much is it?”
Barnes leads as second choice, no new head-to-head matchups
When Democratic primary voters were asked who their second choice would be, 20% said Barnes, compared to 13% for Crowley, 12% for Roys, 8% for Hong and 7% for Brennan. Another 40% said they didn’t have a second choice, many of which are Hong supporters, Franklin said.
“Barnes stands out as the top, second choice for Democratic primary voters,” Franklin said. “Barnes’ strength is the second choice, you certainly see Crowley a bit behind him.”
The new poll did not include updated head-to-head matchups with Tom Tiffany, who is all but certain to emerge from the Republican primary. The mid-July poll showed Hong trailing Tiffany by three points among registered voters but tied with voters who said they were certain to vote Nov. 3.
Barnes, meanwhile, was the only Democrat still in the race with an edge over Tiffany, leading by four points among registered voters and five points among likely voters. He highlighted that finding in the debate.
Crowley was not included in the earlier poll with head-to-head matchups, so Marquette hasn’t asked voters who they’d choose in a Crowley-Tiffany race.
Franklin previously cautioned against interpreting those two- or three-point differences as huge, given the history of close races in Wisconsin.
“The uncertainty about how these races shape up is just gigantic,” he said. “What this does show you is, as we like to do in Wisconsin, a fairly tight race.”
Franklin noted that adding together Crowley and Barnes’ support doesn’t come close to rivaling Hong in this poll. Crowley’s reentry doesn’t fracture the field to the extent “that you can easily see a path to catching Hong,” he said.
“What it would have done is focus attention on the three, non-Hong Democrats if Crowley had not gotten in, and therefore, it would have been a little easier for folks to consolidate if they were going to do that,” Franklin said.
Apart from Barnes leading as a second choice, “I don’t think you see a really obvious strength lurking there that is only being undercut because of Crowley,” Franklin said.
Majority say Evers endorsement doesn’t impact choice
Marquette also asked about awareness of Evers’ endorsement in the race. About 62% of Democratic primary voters were aware Evers endorsed Crowley, compared to 38% who didn’t know about it.
Asked if Evers’ endorsement made them more likely to vote for Crowley, a majority of Democratic voters – 56% – said it made no difference, while 36% said it makes them more likely to vote for Crowley.
But Crowley’s share of support is not at 36%, Franklin noted.
The mid-July Marquette poll found Evers’ job approval rating rose to 51%, up from 47% in March. Evers was also seen favorably by 47% of voters, the only net positive favorability rating among state and national officials in that survey.
“This is just showing you that Tony Evers is well-liked within the Democratic Party,” Franklin said. “But it doesn’t mean that people shift their vote just because of who he endorses.”
Other high-profile Democrats, including U.S. Sen. Tammy Baldwin, U.S. Rep. Mark Pocan and Attorney General Josh Kaul have so far declined to endorse a candidate and wade into the race.
Nearly half of voters age 60-plus still undecided
The poll found Hong is drawing her strongest support from voters age 18-29, plus voters who describe themselves as the most liberal.
On the flip side, Barnes’ support rises among older age groups and Democrats who think of themselves as more moderate or conservative, as does Crowley’s to a lesser extent, Franklin said in the poll release.
Among voters ages 60 or above, 24% support Barnes, compared to 14% for Hong. In that same age group, 46% had not decided who to vote for, down only slightly from 53% in the earlier poll.
In contrast, only 22% of voters ages 18 to 29 were undecided, with 66% of that group choosing Hong.
“This does still leave some uncertainty in the race,” Franklin said. “Historically, it’s the older people that are more likely to vote than the younger people. But it’s also usually the older people that have made up their minds sooner, and that hasn’t happened this time.”
When is the Wisconsin governor election?
There are two important dates: The Aug. 11 primary and the Nov. 3 general election. Both are Tuesdays. Other offices, like Congress and state Legislature, are also on the ballot. You can see a full preview of your ballot at myvote.wi.gov.
Aug. 11 is when voters will select who advances to the general election. Republican Tom Tiffany faces a primary challenger but is almost certain to advance; there are five Democrats competing for the nomination. Early, in-person absentee voting is underway through Aug. 9; polls will be open from 7 a.m. to 8 p.m. on Aug. 11.
Nov. 3 is when voters will select from the Democrat and Republican who advanced from the primary. After this election, Wisconsin will know its next governor.
(This story was updated to add new information.)
Hope Karnopp can be reached at [email protected].
