The Miami Marlins (55-54) and New York Mets (46-62) play the first game Thursday of a 4-game NL East series in New York, New York. First pitch from Citi Field is at 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze MLB odds around the Marlins vs. Mets odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Tied 3-3
The Marlins have completely flipped the script. After losing their first 9 games following the All-Star break, Miami heads out on a 7-game road trip fresh off a 3-game sweep of the Philadelphia Phillies. The Marlins erupted for 17 runs in the series. They’re in third place in the NL East, 8 1/2 games out, and just 2 games out of a Wild Card spot.
After a 3-2 win in the first game of Wednesday’s doubleheader against the Atlanta Braves, the Mets’ 3-game winning streak came ended with a 1-0 loss in Game 2 as +148 home underdogs as the Under (7.5) cashed. New York managed just 2 hits and left 3 runners on base. The silver lining? The Mets still claimed the series, though they remain in last place in the NL East, 17 1/2 games behind Atlanta.
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Marlins at Mets projected starters
RHP Eury Pérez vs. RHP Nolan McLean
Perez (5-8, 3.56 ERA) makes his 19th start. He has a 1.12 WHIP, 3.5 BB/9 and 9.7 K/9 in 98 2/3 innings.
- Last start: Loss, 7 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 1 BB, 2 K in 7-2 home defeat vs. San Diego Padres Saturday
- Last start vs. Mets: Win, 6 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 2 H, 0 BB, 5 K in 2-1 home win May 22
- Career vs. Mets: 1-3, 6.46 ERA (15 1/3 IP, 11 ER), 1.24 WHIP, 5 HR, 10.6 K/9 in 4 starts
- 2026 road splits: 2-4, 3.86 ERA (46 2/3 IP, 20 ER), 1.16 WHIP, 7 HR, 11.4 K/9 in 9 starts
McLean (7-7, 3.32 ERA) makes his 22nd start. He has a 1.12 WHIP, 3,2 BB/9 and 10.7 K/9 in 119 1/3 innings.
- Last start: Loss, 6 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 7 K in 3-1 defeat at Toronto Blue Jays Thursday
- Only start vs. Marlins: Win, 5 IP, 1 ER, 2 H, 5 BB, 2 K in 10-1 home victory May 31
- 2026 home splits: 2-6, 4.33 ERA (60 1/3 IP, 29 ER), 1.29 WHIP, 8 HR, 11.5 K/9 in 11 starts
Marlins at Mets odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:46 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Marlins +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Mets -130 (bet $130 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Marlins +1.5 (-210) | Mets -1.5 (+170)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Marlins at Mets picks and predictions
Prediction
Marlins 4, Mets 2
BET MARLINS (+105).
Miami finally has some life again after taking a series from the Phillies, and this feels like another spot to keep the good vibes rolling. Pérez has really turned around his season, allowing just 7 runs over 36 innings while keeping hitters off balance with excellent command. The Mets counter with McLean, who has whip-out stuff, but has been inconsistent. New York’s offense hasn’t given him much help lately. The Mets rank near the bottom of the league in scoring, and outside of a couple hot bats, they’ve struggled to string together big innings. Miami’s lineup has quietly been heating up, especially against right-handed pitching, and the bullpen gets an added boost after avoiding the workload of New York’s doubleheader Wednesday. With Pérez dealing, the offense showing signs of life, back the Marlins to keep the momentum going.
PASS.
Keep your bet to the moneyline with the Marlins getting plus odds.
BET UNDER 7 (-105).
Don’t expect a fireworks show Thursday. Seven of the last 10 Marlins-Mets meetings have stayed Under the total, and both teams have been cashing Under tickets lately. Pérez and McLean are throwing the ball as well as anyone right now, setting the stage for another crisp, low-scoring pitchers’ duel in Miami.
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