BETTING ODDS: Leka (-220); Poppeck (+180)
In a meeting of European debutants, hulking Serbian youngster Leka
takes on Oktagon
MMA light heavyweight contender Poppeck, who steps in—and up a
weight class—to replace the injured Max
Gimenis.
As a rising talent, Leka is a mixed bag. The basic truth still
holds; i.e. any big-bodied heavyweight under age 30 with a decent
regional record is worth paying attention to. Aside from checking
off those boxes, however, the 24-year-old looks like a good, not
great prospect. He has the size at 6-foot-4 and 260 pounds but is a
middling athlete even by the standards of the division. He has
decent power in his hands, which he maximizes by throwing punches
in bunches rather than loading up looking for single massive
strikes.
Leka’s wrestling and grappling have question marks. He is nimble on
the ground in a way that is frankly surprising given how lumbering
he can sometimes be on the feet, and got the best of almost all of
his opponents, as his trio of arm-triangle submissions and wealth
of ground-and-pound TKOs attest. However, his wrestling is wildly
inconsistent; he has been taken down with apparent ease by
otherwise badly outmatched opponents, and his own offensive
wrestling is not reliable.
Poppeck stepping up on short notice is obviously a case of UFC
matchmakers doing their best in a tough spot, but he might actually
be a sterner test for Leka than Gimenis, a standout grappler who
has shown no real sign of being a good MMA heavyweight. The good
news is that Poppeck, who stands a broad-shouldered 6-foot-2 or so,
has the frame to compete; expect him to weigh in around 230 pounds
and look just fine.
On the feet, the 34-year-old German is an unflashy but effective
orthodox striker who throws two or three basic combinations with
his hands, but has some very hard kicks with which he will target
the body as well as legs. He is a technically sound and willing
wrestler who can change levels and shoot a double-leg in space but
does his best work against the cage, where his patience,
persistence and physical strength allow him to wear down opponents
who try to slow him down with underhooks and wide-leg tactics.
Once he gets an opponent down, Poppeck is a nightmare, heavy on
top, throwing hard, accurate ground strikes and looking for a
chance to take his opponent’s back. His ratio of TKO to submission
wins is not an indication of his skill set, but of his mindset; he
could be closer to 50/50 if he had chosen to choke out a few more
foes rather than keep punching.
Leka is a greater than 2-to-1 favorite here for understandable
reasons. He is the natural heavyweight and should be the larger man
in the cage by quite a bit. He has had this date circled on his
calendar for months, while up until a week ago Poppeck’s main
concern was whether he would get a shot at the Oktagon light
heavyweight belt before the end of the year. He is the native
Serbian, and the crowd is likely to make its presence felt, which
despite everyone’s best intentions, absolutely has an impact on
judges and referees.
Having said all that, I’m leaning towards the upset. Leka’s skills
and instincts tend to put him in the kinds of situations where
Poppeck feels very much at home. Unless the size difference plays a
far greater role than I expect, Poppeck should more than hold his
own on the feet, and while Leka is a very good grappler, he does
not want to spend any time underneath Poppeck on the ground, and
his inconsistent wrestling might put him there. The pick is Poppeck
by decision, probably thanks to several sequences in which he is
pelting Leka with strikes from top position while the Belgrade
crowd loses its collective mind.
Jump To »
Klein vs. Musayev
Elliott vs. Oliveira
Nikolic vs. Vologdin
Buzukja vs. Grad
Rebecki vs. Prepolec
Milosevic vs. Cowan
Leka vs. Poppeck
Spasic vs. Luciano
