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The UFC Belgrade: Medic vs. Rodriguez Prelims continue from Serbia as we present another prediction and pick for this next tilt in the Bantamweight (135) Division. Belgrade, Serbia’s own Borislav Nikolic will take on Russia’s Mark Vologdin in what should be an highly-competitive scrap. Check our UFC Belgrade odds series for the Nikolic-Vologdin prediction and pick.
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Borislav Nikolic (16-2) makes his UFC debut riding a six-fight winning streak that included a Brave CF title win and subsequent title defense. He won his most recent outing via second-round knockout over Matheus Malta, now making his anticipated UFC debut as the favorite in his hometown of Belgrade. Nikolic hopes to capitalize on the favorable spot, standing 5-foot-9 with an unknown reach.
Mark Vologdin (12-4-2) makes his second UFC appearance following a ‘majority draw’ ruling in his debut bout against John Castaneda. After winning and defending a title with AFN, Vologdin actually lost his Contender Series audition but received the call to fight for the UFC anyway. Now, he’ll look to finally cash-in on his opportunity in this bout. Vologdin stands 5-foot-3 with a 65-inch reach.
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UFC Belgrade Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
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UFC Belgrade Odds: Borislav Nikolic-Mark Vologdin Odds
Borislav Nikolic: -185
Mark Vologdin: +154
Over 2.5 rounds: -140
Under 2.5 rounds: +110
Why Borislav Nikolic Will Win
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Last Fight: (W) Matheus Malta – TKO (punches, R2)
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Finishes: 7 KO/TKO, 8 SUB
Borislav Nikolic comes into this debut bout following a dominant TKO effort in the second round of his last Brave CF appearance against Matheus Malta. His opponent threatened with heavy striking in the opening stages of the fight, but Nikolic retained his composure and stayed patient until his opportunity for the finish finally arrived. This recent run, including two title wins in the fights prior, suggest Nikolic is ready for the UFC stage, debuting in his hometown of Belgrade nonetheless.
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Nikolic favors the counter attack and typically allows opponents to initiate the exchanges. Keeping his hands lower than most, Nikolic doesn’t telegraph his punches and can catch opponents off-guard with awkward striking angles. His work on the ground should also be praised as he does a great job overpowering opponents and forcing advantageous positions where he can land unanswered shots.
Vologdin will certainly be looking to bring the fight to Nikolic early and could be striking behind a higher pace through the first two rounds. While Nikolic shouldn’t fall behind in the totals too much, allowing Vologdin to dictate the pace should work in his favor as he’ll be landing the heavier shots with less energy exerted. He notched a clean knockout with a counter right hook in his last fight, so expect Nikolic to be successful during his swinging exchanges with Vologdin.
Why Mark Vologdin Will Win
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Last Fight: (D) John Castaneda – DRAW (majority)
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Finishes: 6 KO/TKO, 4 SUB
Mark Vologdin put together a strong outing during his ‘draw’ against John Castaneda, falling behind on the striking totals but managing to earn control time while landing a takedown. At just 26 years old, Vologdin still has a ton of evolving and maturing to do inside the octagon, but he comes in with a strong striking base and wrestling that improves with each passing fight.
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Vologdin’s striking is reminiscent of Petr Yan in the way he’s able to slide out of range and return with his 1-2 combinations. Vologdin is also a counter-striker by nature and will wait until his opponent whiffs to lunge forward with his own offense. During this fight, he could have ample opportunities to do so against Nikolic who’s known to take chances on the feet.
Up to this point, Vologdin hasn’t been too success in taking opponents down and it doesn’t seem likely that he’ll see a different story against a taller, stronger opponent in Nikolic. Instead, Vologdin should look to focus on his striking while working the low leg kicks and eventually threatening Nikolic with level changes to keep him guessing.
Final Borislav Nikolic-Mark Vologdin Prediction & Pick
This fight should be extremely close as both fighters have been significantly improving over the last three fights. Mark Vologdin should have learned a lesson in output during his last loss and we should see a more involved version of him during this outing.
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Still, I think the height and strength advantage for Borislav Nikolic will be too significant as Vologdin will struggle to complete his takedowns once again. It cost him a win during the Castaneda fight, so we’ll see if he’s more willing to stand and strike this time around.
For our final prediction, we’ll side with Borsilav Nikolic to control the striking and be the fresher fighter by the end of three rounds. Both fighters will be determined and won’t go down easily, so the total over in rounds seems like a safe play here as well.
Final Borislav Nikolic-Mark Vologdin Prediction & Pick: Borislav Nikolic (-185); OVER 2.5 Rounds (-140)
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