Once again US President Donald Trump has pulled back from a threatened escalation of US strikes on Iran.
Trump said in a Truth Social post that the US military was “locked and loaded and ready” to unleash “levels of Military Terror, Strength, and Power not seen since World War II,” but decided to call off strikes as Tehran and other Middle Eastern countries asked to “hold off any attack.”
Analysts noted the economic pressure the war has put on US allies around the region as to why they’d like to see hostilities stop. And they noted Iran faces those same economic hardships as well as a military that has been severely degraded by over five months of war.
But it’s also a military that retains a punch, as demonstrated by deadly strikes on US forces in the region in the past month.
Meanwhile, the US military is facing some tough questions about its ability to defend US forces as stocks of Patriot and Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) interceptors are becoming increasingly stretched.
A report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies last week found the US inventory of Patriot interceptors, the prime defensive missile in the American arsenal, was at about a third of its pre-war level, from 2,330 to between 759 and 827 as of July 27.
THAAD interceptors, designed to hit ballistic missiles well before they near their targets, are down from 452 before the war to 278 or fewer now, according to the CSIS report.
The expenditure of those munitions goes along with other losses of materiel, including fighter jets, airborne early warning and reconnaissance planes, helicopters and drones.
At sea, US naval assets have seen extended deployments, which can push back needed maintenance and repairs.
“For an expansive, modern, and highly capable military like the US joint force, readiness hits are cumulative, while trade-offs are immediate,” Ariane Tabatabai, senior fellow at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs, wrote in June.
Almost two months later, the US joint force has been stretched even further, leading to questions on whether it can deliver a knockout blow in the war.
Trita Parsi, co-founder and executive vice president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, said on CNN Sunday that Iran has been able to keep fighting back every time the US increases military pressure – and could probably do so again.
“The bottom line is: Trump does not have an escalatory way out of this conflict,” Parsi said.
