After months of rumors, the Tigers finally dealt Tarik Skubal yesterday, sending the two-time Cy Young Award to the Dodgers for a three-player package (River Ryan and prospects outfielder Zyhir Hope and Brady Smith). While moving Skubal reflects the reality of the Tigers’ disappointing 54-58 record, it appears as though the club isn’t ready to become full sellers. According to the Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal and Cody Stavenhagen, “the Tigers will try to ‘thread the needle’ and continue to compete” for a wild card berth, or maybe even the AL Central title.
This stance could certainly be walked back if rival teams step up with strong offers for Casey Mize, Gleyber Torres, Kenley Jansen, or other impending free agents between now and tomorrow’s 5pm CT trade deadline. Mize is really the key figure to watch in this regard, since the right-hander is generating a lot of trade buzz and it’s hard to imagine Detroit can make any kind of serious run if both of its top starters are dealt.
In a world where the Tigers don’t receive an acceptable offer for Mize, however, it is plausible that the Tigers might pivot and make a lower-level addition or two to the roster. Moving Skubal chops about $10MM off the books and pretty much guarantees Detroit will stay under the $244MM luxury tax threshold, leaving president of baseball operations Scott Harris will a little bit of financial wiggle room if he did want to add some talent.
The obvious comparison point here is 2024, when the Tigers were deadline sellers and had a 55-62 record before winning 31 of their last 44 games to snag a wild card berth (and then knocked off the Astros in the wild card round). Detroit was also on the other end of an AL Central comeback last year, when a late slump and a corresponding surge from the Guardians gave Cleveland the division crown, though the Tigers had the last laugh in eliminating the Guards in the wild card series.
Detroit has again done a good job of almost crawling out of a deep hole created by a 6-22 record in May. Since that disastrous month, the Tigers have gone 32-20, and now sit 5.5 games behind the White Sox for the division lead and 2.5 games out of a wild card slot. Perhaps the key figures to notice are the Tigers’ +63 run differential and their 12-20 record in one-run games, as both statistics indicate that Detroit’s 54-58 isn’t indicative of the club’s true talent level.
Of course, those numbers came with Skubal on the roster, so keeping up that level of play without perhaps the game’s best pitcher will be a lot trickier. The returns of Jackson Jobe, Jack Flaherty, and Brant Hurter to the pitching staff can only do so much to fill the void, and two full months of the Tigers’ patented “pitching chaos” will be hard to manage without Skubal there as the rotation’s anchor.
