Good morning,
By the time you read this, the Padres may have made a trade.
If that happens, it is all you will want to read about.
But it is important to acknowledge what the Padres have been able to do lately.
Win.
“We just compete,” Freddy Fermin said. “Winning is winning in the big show.”
You can read in my game story (here) about the Padres’ latest somewhat improbable victory, a 6-5 walk-off against the Giants last night.
Yes, it was an opponent with a losing record. Yes, the Padres blew two leads, including one in the eighth inning with two of their high-leverage arms on the mound.
So what? See Fermin’s quote.
Yes, they have to figure out how to beat better pitchers and better teams.
But you may recall that it didn’t matter for a while who the Padres were playing. They were not winning games like this. They were not winning very often at all.
The Padres have flaws. They will try to address them by finding at least one starting pitcher and a left-handed bat — and knowing A.J. Preller, some off-the-wall attempt at a solution we haven’t thought of – before 3 p.m. tomorrow.
The thinking among many assessing the stagnant trade market has been that the best starting pitcher available being moved would set deals in motion. And the best starting pitcher was moved last night when the Dodgers acquired Tarik Skubal from the Tigers.
You can read my story from yesterday afternoon (here) talking about what the Padres are thinking and how they might go about acquiring what they need.
Those new pieces could be crucial. But we have talked a lot here about how the bulk of the players already on the roster will play the biggest role in determining how far the Padres go.
Last night, they were able to remain a game outside the National League playoff field because they continued to show the type of resilience they displayed early in the season and that it seemed for a time they had lost.
More than half (13) of the Padres’ first 25 victories this season were decided in the seventh inning or later. That was in the season’s 42 games, so just less than one-third of their games to that point were victories they secured late.
They had another six such victories over their next 36 games. And then they had one in 25 games.
In their past eight games, they have won four games with runs scored in the seventh or later. That is four of their past seven victories.
The Padres’ total of 31 comeback victories are tied with the Brewers for fourth most in the major leagues behind the Diamondbacks (35), Dodgers and Braves (32). That is good company.
Another statistic I track that I think indicates a level of resilience is how often the Padres win a game in which they lost a lead. I started tracking the stat in 2023. That listless club was awful at retaking a lead. It was something the Padres were decent at in 2024 and ‘25, though they still finished with losing records in games in which they lost a lead in those years games, because most teams do.
Early this season, the Padres won six of the first nine games in which they lost a lead. They were still 12-11 in such games on June 23 after a 10-inning victory over the Braves. They then lost the next five games in which they lost a lead and by July 20 were 14-19.
They have won four of their past five such games and are now 18-20.
Something the players and staff have been talking about for a couple weeks is how they have a veteran team, which they say allowed them to understand what was happening and to correct it without panic.
Maybe it took too long. Maybe they won’t sustain it. Maybe the trade deadline won’t yield enough help.
But here they are, winners of seven of their past eight games, looking a lot like the offense that had helped build MLB’s third-best record in mid-May.
“I think there’s one thing this group knows is we know who we are as players,” Jake Cronenworth said after hitting last night’s walk-off single in the ninth inning. “A lot of these guys in this room have played for a long time. … Pretty much everybody in here has been through the ups and downs, the bad and the good, and they’ve seen what it looks like. I think this is who we are.”
Well, that happened
Both Walker Buehler and Cronenworth smiled wide and walked away when asked if they had heard the Dodgers had acquired a new starting pitcher.
In their initial reactions might be a masking of some frustration, but the Padres aren’t mad.
“Does it make their team even better? Yeah,” Cronenworth said later. “But they have every right to do it. Every other team had the opportunity to do it.”
Sending the Tigers three prospects, including two ranked in the top 68 in all of baseball by MLB.com, to get Skubal figures to be unfathomably beneficial for the team that already was the overwhelming favorite to win its third consecutive World Series.
The Dodgers now have the pitcher who won the past two American league Cy Young awards (Skubal) and the pitcher who won the National League Cy Young award the year before that (Blake Snell). They have the two-time reigning NL MVP (Shohei Ohtani) and the guy who won the AL MVP two of the three years before that (Ohtani) plus two more former MVPs (Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman).
So this trade is to every other contender’s detriment. And it is not the Padres’ problem. Yet.
“That’s what you do when they’re going for something — three in a row,” Xander Bogaerts said. “… They’re chasing that, and they got a good pitcher. We’ve just got to focus on trying to get to the playoffs. Once you get there, anything can happen. If this ends today, I don’t even think we’re in, right? We’ve got to get in.”
Proving his worth
Mason Miller was asked to do something last night that very few pitchers would be asked to do.
When he was brought in to replace Jeremiah Estrada with the bases loaded and one out in the eighth, it was with the intention of him getting out of that jam and then getting the final three outs the next inning.
Miller failed at first, leaving a 103 mph fastball up and over the plate that Osleivis Basabe hit to left field for a game-tying double.
“Just a byproduct of a bad count,” Miller said. “Three-one, bases loaded, nowhere to put him, hittable pitch. Beat him up there one time. Couldn’t beat him in the same spot.”
Fortunately for the Padres, they got to send out the game’s best closer to try keep the game tied in the ninth inning.
“He just kind of handles every situation, whatever’s thrown at him,” Padres manager Craig Stammen said. “He does it with toughness and grace and mental toughness. The hardest thing is, when you get knocked down, is to be able to get back up. And when he gets back up, he’s pretty amazing. He’s not just OK; he’s like the best.
“He showed that again tonight. He made one pitch that he probably wants back, and then after that, there are no pitches that he wants back. He made pitches all night long, and a big win in his column instead of a save tonight.”
As noted in the game story, Miller’s recovery came after a momentary deviation from his normal chill.
Miller walked into the dugout after the eighth inning and threw a cooler. That resulted in the middle finger of his throwing hand being cut. The Padres got the bleeding stopped before the ninth, and Miller had the finger taped after the game.
“I don’t like giving up runs,” he said. “I like it even less when they’re somebody else’s.”
Last night was Miller’s first blown save since his first save opportunity with the Padres on Aug. 5, 2025. That was a span of 30 successfully converted saves.
Virtually every sign has pointed to Miller not being traded, and his being used in that situation last night was yet another. While teams who anticipate trading starters have been keeping those pitchers out of their scheduled starts in recent days, the Padres asked their closer to come in with the bases loaded and get two outs and then get three more.
As I wrote in yesterday’s story on the trade deadline, jettisoning Miller (or Adrian Morejón) runs counter to Preller’s roster-building ethos.
There are many in the league who believe the Padres will move Morejón in order to improve their rotation and/or add a left-handed-hitting outfielder.
Some in the organization familiar with the team’s early discussions about players believe the Padres can make sufficient additions by dealing perhaps just Wandy Peralta or Yuki Matsui.
Sometimes, painful decisions have to be made.
But what has happened the past two games illustrates what the Padres will be missing if one of those three left-handed relievers are dealt.
On Friday, Matsui worked three scoreless innings. And last night, Peralta stranded two inherited runners by getting two outs on two pitches in the fifth inning before leaving a runner on third with two outs for Morejón in the sixth. After finishing that inning with a groundout, Morejón struck out the top three batters in the Giants lineup in the seventh.
Said Stammen: “It’s just a nice luxury to have guys like that be able to pitch your fifth, sixth, and seventh innings.”
Pitchers’ progress
Joe Musgrove and Nick Pivetta, the two veteran right-handers the Padres expected to help anchor their rotation this season, remain on track to make their first rehab starts Tuesday with an eye toward a return within the next three weeks.
Both threw a full bullpen session yesterday afternoon, as they would between starts. Provided there are no setbacks, they are expected to pitch in a game against minor leaguers every five or six days beginning with an outing between 35 and 45 pitches on Tuesday.
The Padres have said they want both to be able to go at least five innings when they return to the major leagues. A regular progression could have them able to do that after three rehab starts.
“Very excited for it,” Musgrove said yesterday. “It’s been a lot of ups and downs, times where I thought I was getting really close and we had to pull back a little bit. But this is the best I’ve felt in a long time. Consistent recovery. Feel like I’m finally able to start working on pitches and getting in more of competition mode on the mound, as opposed to just trying to get through it without pain. So I feel like I’m progressing with my pitches. My stuff is getting better every time out. Feel really good.”
Musgrove last pitched in the 2024 NL Wild Card Series. He has Tommy John surgery a week later, but it was a lack of cartilage in his elbow that sidelined him after he pitched one exhibition against Great Britain’s WBC team in spring training.
He has altered his delivery and worked through various recovery techniques to get to a point where he and the Padres believe he can not only pitch but do it effectively start after start.
“We found a couple manipulations and mobility (moves) for the elbow that seemed to put my stuff back in the right place and relieve some pain,” he said. “So a combination of a couple different things, but ultimately I think the time down was the biggest thing.”
Pivetta, who departed his fourth start this season, has been far less willing to discuss his rehab process. He said at one point the only significant step would be when he returns to a major league mound.
“Good, good. Everything is good,” he said yesterday as he exited the field and disappeared into the clubhouse.
Pivetta faces a deadline of sorts for his return.
His elbow injury, a flexor strain, is the same one that sidelined him for a time in 2024 while he was with the Red Sox. A provision in the contract he signed with the Padres the next spring stipulated that if he spent 130 consecutive days on the injured list, his $14 million option for 2027 became a team option. That would effectively allow the Padres to void the final two years and $32 million that remain on his deal.
The date he needs to return by is Aug. 22, which does allow time for three rehab starts.
Tidbits
- Ty France almost certainly will not have enough plate appearances to be a “qualifier” at the end of 2026, because he started just three of the Padres’ first 15 games and eight of their first 24 games this season. But he has undoubtedly been the team’s most consistent and arguably most important hitter. A single that kept alive what ended up being a three-run first inning last night was the first of his three hits last night. He is batting .294 with an .888 OPS, which both are best on the team by a wide margin among players with more than 115 plate appearances. France’s 16 home runs are second most on the team, and his 49 RBIs are tied for third. His 294 plate appearances are sixth most.
- France has at least one hit in 17 of his past 19 games, a span in which he is batting .408 with an 1.177 OPS. That average is highest in MLB in that span, while the OPS is second highest.
- Luis Rengifo was hit by a pitch, walked, scored a run and went 0-f0r-2 last night. He is batting .364 with a .472 on-base percentage and has scored 11 times in 14 games with the Padres.
- Bogaerts was 2-for-4 with a double and scored the Padres’ final two runs last night. He has his safely in 18 of his past 28 games but is batting just .212 (21-for-99) in that span. His .240 batting average on balls in play in the 27 games leading up to last night ranked 144th out of 174 qualifying batters.
- Fermin hit a two-run homer in the fourth inning, drove in Bogaerts with a single in the sixth and moved Bogaerts to third base with a sacrifice bunt in the ninth. He is batting .314 with an .819 OPS over his past 15 games, which has raised his season numbers to .179 and .569.
- The Padres (57-54) are three games above .500 for the first time since they were 43-40 on June 29.
- By outscoring opponents 81-45 over their past 12 games, the Padres have improved their run differential to minus-13. That ranks 16th in the majors, which is up six spots from where they were 13 games ago.
All right, that’s it for me. Early game today (1:10 p.m. PT) and then a flight to Arizona.
Talk to you tomorrow.
