Giants left-hander Robbie Ray is one of the most logical trade candidates still on the board. Joel Sherman of The New York Post reports that the Padres are interested. Bob Nightengale of USA Today says the Phillies have him on their radar. He has also been connected to the Cubs, although that was before that club acquired Kevin Gausman from the Blue Jays.
Ray, 34, is an impending free agent on a Giants team that is clearly selling. They have already sent out Tyler Mahle, Luis Arraez and Caleb Kilian. With Ray headed to the open market in a few months, he should be on a different roster in the next few hours.
His value will probably be less than you might think based on his Cy Young past and his 3.08 earned run average this year. There’s a decent amount of smoke and mirrors in this year’s results. His 20.9% strikeout rate and 11.1% walk rate are actually subpar. He has gotten a lot of help from a .259 batting average on balls in play and 79% strand rate. His 4.36 FIP and 4.76 SIERA paint a far less rosy picture.
There’s also his contract. He is making $25MM this year, a fairly hefty sum, with still over $7MM to be paid out. The Phillies and Padres are both over the competitive balance tax line, the Phils over the top tier. That only compounds the financial cost.
The Giants are reportedly willing to pay down part of that salary in order to make a deal work. Any trade would involve the Giants finding a middle ground in terms of the money and also the prospect return. Some teams would prefer to take on more money and hold their prospects. Those with tight budgets might ask the Giants to absorb more, cranking up the prospect return to compensate.
The Padres are clearly in need of capable starting pitching. They currently have Michael King and are otherwise patching together games with a cluster of guys that includes Walker Buehler, Germán Márquez, Griffin Canning, JP Sears and Randy Vásquez. They could get Joe Musgrove and Nick Pivetta back later in the year but both are big question marks right now. Ray would arguably become the club’s #2 starter if they could land him, though they are presumably exploring any and all available players today.
What’s unclear is how they plan to get those external additions. Their farm system is considered by many to be the worst in the league. That is thanks to a budget crunch in recent years which led the front office to trade aggressively from the pipeline. They have a strong bullpen but seem reluctant to trade from that. It’s also unclear if a team like the Giants would want big league relievers over prospects.
Intra-divisional trades can sometimes be tricky but this isn’t the type of deal where that should matter. Ray isn’t a face-of-the-franchise type player where it will hurt fans in San Francisco to see him pitching for a rival. On the flip side, the Padres probably aren’t worried about sending out a prospect so talented that it would embarrass them later if he succeeds for the Giants.
For the Phillies, their rotation has an excellent front three of Zack Wheeler, Cristopher Sánchez and Jesús Luzardo. However, Aaron Nola and Andrew Painter have struggled badly in the back end. The team has been busy today, adding Arraez, Kilian and Brooks Raley to fortify the lineup and bullpen. Adding another starter is also on the to-do list with just a few hours to go until the deadline.
Photo courtesy of Steven Bisig, Imagn Images
