Just about 20 minutes before the deadline, the Nats finally pulled the trigger on a Foster Griffin trade. They moved the All-Star lefty to the Guardians and received four prospects in return. The prospects are LHP Josh Hartle, RHP Kendeglys Virguez, LHP Will Dion and OF Nick Mitchell. Hartle is the only top 30 prospect of the bunch, ranking 25th in a deep Guardians system.
To be honest, the return is underwhelming. The market for rental starters was a bit of a mixed bag, with Kevin Gausman and Freddy Peralta going for mediocre returns, while Dustin May and Clay Holmes got larger packages. I would certainly place the Griffin return in the first category.
The Nats got some useful arms here, but I do not really see any upside in this deal. Dion and Hartle are the two big pieces here. In my opinion, Dion projects as a middle reliever who relies on deception while Hartle is a potential number 5 starter who relies on command and a deep mix. It is just not a package that fires me up.
Griffin was a wonderful National this season. As mentioned, he was an All-Star and was the heart of this rotation. The lefty went 12-3 with a 3.06 ERA in 129.1 innings. His underlying metrics were less stellar, with a FIP around 4, which probably decreased his value. However, he has a deep mix and really knows how to pitch.
After getting quantity over quality returns for both Gore and Garcia, I would have loved the Nats to shoot for more upside here. That is not what happened though. They are continuing to add bullpen and overall pitching depth to the organization.
The one piece of the deal that intrigues me the most is Dion, who can be a solid lefty reliever for the Nats right away. He throws from an extremely high release and gets over 20 inches of carry on his fastball. It is only in the low-90’s but it plays well above its velocity. Dion struck out 25 hitters while walking just 3 in 19.2 big league innings.
Dion needs to be fine with his location because he does not have that overwhelming velocity or knockout secondaries. His best secondary pitch is a changeup that gets a lot of whiff against righties. However, the high carry heater is the star of the show.
The headliner of this deal though is Josh Hartle, who I am just not very high on. With a deep pitch mix and good command, I guess you could see some of Griffin himself if you squint. However, you have to squint very hard.
This season the 23 year old has a 3.86 ERA and pedestrian strikeout and walk numbers this year. Virguez is a 22 year old reliever who has loud stuff and big strikeout numbers, but struggles with walks. Lastly, Mitchell is an outfielder who is likely organizational depth.
I suppose this would be better than losing Griffin for nothing, but this is just not a haul I am excited about. Hopefully time proves me wrong, but there is just not a ton of upside in this return for Foster Griffin, who has been a revelation this season.
