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Sid Mokhtari, chief market technician at CIBC Capital Markets.Supplied
July was a volatile month for equity indexes.
Despite the choppy market action, the S&P/TSX Composite Index ended the month with a small gain, climbing 1.06 per cent and lifting its year-to-date return into double-digit territory. The index is now up 11.08 per cent in 2026.
This market volatility can create buying opportunities for active investors.
For investors seeking investment recommendations, CIBC’s chief market technician Sid Mokhtari publishes a monthly report with his top 10 stock ideas. He recommends stocks with strong technical and quantitative characteristics that may lead to portfolio outperformance.
His process involves screening and selecting stocks from the largest 100 members by market capitalization within the S&P/TSX Composite Index. Importantly, his technically driven stock recommendations have consistently outperformed the broader index across a wide range of market conditions.
His stock selections have outperformed the S&P/TSX Composite Index for the past four calendar years. In 2025, his portfolio of stock selections rallied 51.3 per cent, compared to a 28.3 per cent price return for the S&P/TSX Composite Index. His stock selections also outperformed the TSX Index in 2024, 2023 and 2022 by 5.8 percentage points, 6.3 percentage points and 2.7 percentage points, respectively.
Year-to-date, his basket of top picks has rallied 10.32 per cent, slightly underperforming the S&P/TSX Composite Index with an 11.08 per cent price return.
Last month, his portfolio of top picks rallied 1.21 per cent, relatively in-line with the S&P/TSX Composite Index, which advanced 1.06 per cent. Most of his stock selections, seven of the 10, posted positive returns in July.
Leading contributors included Manulife Financial Corp. (MFC-T) and Atco Ltd. (ACO-X-T), which increased 8.2 per cent and 7.7 per cent, respectively. Both stocks remain in his basket of top picks for August.
This month, his diversified basket of stock selections includes eight new stocks.
Last month, the portfolio did not have exposure to the top performing sector – energy. This month, energy represents the portfolio’s largest sector exposure with the addition of Keyera Corp. (KEY-T), Suncor Energy Inc. (SU-T) and Ovintiv Inc. (OVV-T).
The portfolio holds two consumer staples stocks: Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc. (ATD-T) and George Weston Ltd. (WN-T).
In industrials, Waste Connections Inc. (WCN-T) made the list.
In real estate, Choice Properties Real Estate Investment Trust (CHP-UN-T) was added.
Lastly, in materials, gold miner DPM Metals Inc. (DPM-T) was selected.
According to Mr. Mokhtari, over the past 30 years, the S&P/TSX Composite Index has declined by an average of 0.2 per cent in August.
In his best ideas report published on Aug. 3, Mr. Mokhtari remarked on current market conditions stating, “We continue to advocate the market may be entering a period where several warning signals are lining up at the same time – crowded positioning in [the] semiconductors space and AI-related trades, sharp sentiment swings, potential systematic CTA drawdowns, a more hawkish sentiment for the interest rate path, and of course historically weak August to October seasonality. In simpler terms, too much capital has been pushed into the same winning trades – semis, and when sentiment turns and those trades begin to unwind, the selling can spread quickly and systematically cascade out into other areas.”
He added, “August should be approached from a more decrowding continuation and capital preservation mindset ahead of the September FOMC meeting.”
Consequently, his models favours value, quality, dividend yield and low volatility over growth and momentum factors.
