When preparing for your fantasy football drafts, knowing which players to target and which to avoid is important. The amount of information available can be overwhelming, so a great way to condense the data and determine players to draft and others to leave for your leaguemates is to use our expert consensus fantasy football rankings compared to fantasy football average draft position (ADP). In this way, you can identify players the experts are willing to reach for at ADP and others they are not drafting until much later than average. Let’s dive into a few players fantasy football expert Pat Fitzmaurice is avoiding in 2026 drafts. And check out all of Fitz’s fantasy football draft picks to avoid.
2026 Fantasy Football Draft Advice: Players to Avoid
Jalen Hurts (QB – PHI)
At his midrange QB1 price, Hurts has to deliver significant rushing value to give you a satisfying return on investment. Because let’s face it: Hurts has been a pretty average passer.
Hurts has never had a 4,000-yard passing season. He averaged 201.5 passing yards per game and 7.1 yards per pass attempt last year – modest numbers. His 25 TD passes last season were a career high.
Hurts’ top target for the last four years, AJ Brown, is now with the Patriots. WR Devonta Smith and TE Dallas Goedert are still around. The Eagles also drafted WR Makai Lemon and TE Eli Stowers, and they traded for Dontayvion Wicks. But many of the Eagles’ top pass catchers do their best work over the middle, and Hurts traditionally hasn’t thrown there very often.
Granted, the Eagles’ passing game could be better under new offensive coordinator Sean Mannion than it was under the much-maligned Kevin Patullo. But it seems unlikely that Hurts will suddenly become a prolific passer under the direction of a first-time NFL playcaller.
For Hurts to be a midrange QB1 or better, he’ll have to put up big rushing numbers, and we saw his rushing numbers decline last year.
After four straight years of double-digit TD runs, with an average of 13 rushing touchdowns a season over that stretch, Hurts had eight TD runs last year. The Eagles had faithfully used the “tush push” every time they got inside the opponent’s 2-yard line in recent years. But last year, the Eagles started mixing in a shovel pass to Goedert when they were near the goal line. Goedert scored six such touchdowns last season from the opponent’s 5-yard line or closer.
Hurts’ 421 rushing yards last season were a five-year low.
With sensational rushing yards no longer bankable, Hurts is a fade.
De’Von Achane (RB – MIA)
There’s no denying that Achane is an abundantly talented player and a fun watch. He’s averaged 5.6 yards per carry for his career, he’s scored double-digit touchdowns in each of his first three NFL seasons, and he’s had 145 catches over the last two years. Achane finished RB5 in half-point PPR scoring last year.
But Achane will be sailing into some fierce headwinds this year.
The Dolphins’ Vegas win total for 2026 was 4.5 as of this writing – and it was juiced toward the under.
Miami’s offensive line is expected to be among the worst in the league.
The Dolphins’ new quarterback, Malik Willis, averaged 18 pass attempts per game across his three starts for the Packers over the last two seasons. Only eight of his 54 throws in those three starts went to running backs.
It’s possible Achane’s talent overcomes the adverse conditions he faces in 2026, but that’s not a bet I’m eager to make in the second round of fantasy football drafts.
Brian Thomas Jr. (WR – JAC)
It could be a colossal mistake to fade a former first-round draft pick who had 1,282 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns as a rookie.
But Year 2 for BTJ was rough: 48 catches for 707 yards and two touchdowns. His drop rate was 11%. His yards per route run fell by a full yard, from 2.45 to 1.45. The passer rating on throws to BTJ went from 106.2 as a rookie to 81.2 last year.
And when Trevor Lawrence was really cooking down the stretch last season, averaging 265 yards and throwing 18 TD passes over the final seven games of the regular season, Thomas was not getting his fair share of the spoils. He played in six of those seven games and averaged 3.0 receptions and 47.8 yards per game, and he caught just one of those 18 TD passes.
In fairness, BTJ was banged up for much of last season. He had a wrist injury early on that he seemed to be favoring when he caught only seven of his first 25 targets in the first three weeks of the season. He injured his shoulder at midseason, although he didn’t miss any time. And he missed three games with a high-ankle sprain in the second half of the season.
The question is whether the promise of a healthier season is enough for us to buy back in.
For me, it is not.
For one thing, a lot of BTJ’s rookie-year production came with Mac Jones at quarterback, not Trevor Lawrence. With Lawrence at QB in the first nine games of the season, BTJ averaged 5.9 targets, 3.9 catches and 66.1 yards per game. Which isn’t bad. But from Week 10 on, when it was Jones at quarterback for all but 10 pass attempts in one partial game for Lawrence, BTJ averaged 10.0 targets, 6.5 catches and 85.9 yards per game.
The target competition is stiffer now, with Jakobi Meyers joining the team midway through the 2025 season and Parker Washington looking like a breakout star late in the year. The Jags say two-way player Travis Hunter will be deployed primarily as a cornerback this year, but he’s a potential wild card as a target thief.
This just doesn’t seem like an ecosystem that sets up well for a Brian Thomas Jr. bounce-back.
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