Fox’s refusal to reopen NFL media deal shows companies are increasingly willing to tell the league ‘no’
Typically over the last three decades, as the National Football League emerged into the runaway juggernaut of U.S. sports, when it told partners to jump, they would ask how high? The NFL is far and away the number one entertainment property in America, and especially if you are a media company, if the NFL asks, the answer is never no.
That is what makes Fox CEO Lachlan Murdoch’s choice to not only resist the NFL’s push to reopen the media contracts, but to do so publicly this morning on an earnings call, so fascinating.
“We don’t see any changes to our contractual terms until the 2030 season, ” Murdoch said, adding later, “we continue to have a great relationship with them and are in a good place. You know when we sit down and talk about the contractual extension of our rights after 2029 into 2030 season or 2031 season, I think you know … we’ll do that much closer to that date.”
This could of course just be a negotiating ploy on Murdoch’s behalf. His father, Rupert Murdoch, already reportedly pressured politicians, including President Trump, to review if the NFL TV contracts are in violation of antitrust laws.
Patrick Crakes, a former Fox Sports executive, calls Lachlan Murdoch’s comment today “unprecedented” and “a sea change to publicly do that.” Crakes recalls working for Fox late one night about 15 years ago, and a colleague came and asked him to value six NFC games that the NFL wanted to move to CBS, and the league would make it up to Fox over the course of the contract.
Crakes remembers telling his colleague that was not in the contract, and his colleague looked at him and said, “What part of this do you not understand about this?” Crakes smiled, and Fox allowed the schedule flex.
For Crakes, two important trends underscore Murdoch publicly revealing Fox has no intention of reopening its contract. The media landscape is consolidating, witnessed by the pending Paramount-WBD merger, he said. And the spending power of the streamers, seen as the leverage to get broadcasters to ante up, shouldn’t be taken for granted as companies like Amazon and Google face enormous AI capital spends.
“When I go through the business plans right now for Amazon and Google right after they report, I get $1 trillion plus between just the two of them in 2030,” Crakes said. “That’s a lot of money that they’re going to spend on stuff that’s not media.”
Crakes points to Google walking away from the negotiations for the five game package Netflix took.
Now, no one is predicting the NFL won’t get a lot more than its current deal, which pays the league $110 billion over 11 years through 2033-34, and has an opt-out year in 2029. The NBA’s 11 year, $76 billion media deals in 2024 were a major impetus for the NFL’s early renewal talks, given the NBA got about 70 percent of what the NFL gleaned, despite viewership far below that percent.
Most prognosticators are predicting the NFL could double their rights fees or more, especially if an extra game is added onto the season.
Broadcasters are watching intently to see whether the NFL exercises its option to start renewal talks with Paramount. Paramount merged with Skydance last year, a transaction that triggered an opt-out provision in their contract with the NFL. The NFL has said it does not envision forcing an early opt out with Paramount, but has had talks with the network about it.
Crakes thinks the NFL will eventually get two times the current amount, but there are some red flags.
“The realization is that five or six new media companies aren’t coming,” he said, “toss in the unprofitability of the media business, consolidation,” and it’s a tougher road to riches than most sports leagues expected. Even the almighty NFL.
