The latest version of the Protect College Sports Act changes the math of conference realignment.
The text under consideration by the Senate and, perhaps, headed for a vote in the next day or two, would effectively cap the number of members in the Big Ten, SEC, ACC and Big 12 at 19 apiece. That’s a change from a previous iteration, which could have frozen SEC/Big Ten expansion entirely. The new bill would also require a Power 4 team to operate as an independent for five years before joining another P4 league — conference purgatory, as some administrators called it this week. Group of 6 teams could move up freely.
The language is subject to change and interpretation, but those qualifiers are no fun. Instead, let’s game out one plausible scenario if this bill eventually becomes law (if it passes in the Senate, it still must get through the House of Representatives, too).
What would/should the Power 4 conferences look like with 19 teams each? Guided by public comments from previous rounds of realignment, we put on our fantasy commissioner hat to come up with the best expansion candidates to maximize each league’s membership.
What college rivalry should come back?
Joe Rexrode, Eric Single and more
Big Ten
Spots available: 1
The Big Ten highlights academics more than some of its peers, and membership in the prestigious Association of American Universities has been a de facto prerequisite in expansion. Geography has proven irrelevant for a coast-to-coast league, and football is, by far, the top athletic consideration.
Up for discussion
Notre Dame: Why would the bill cap conference size at an odd number while allowing independents to change leagues easily and immediately? Gosh, might it be so that the 18-team Big Ten has the ability to add a powerhouse independent in its geographic footprint?
North Carolina: The Tar Heels fit the league’s academic/athletic mold and are the flagship school in the ninth-largest state. Former Big Ten commissioner Jim Delany was a basketball co-captain at UNC. Given how important relationships are in realignment, that’s worth noting.
Virginia and Georgia Tech: As long as academics still matter, Virginia and Georgia Tech (two of the nation’s top public schools) deserve a mention, especially if last year was a sign that their football programs have turned a corner.
Florida State and Clemson: Although the Seminoles and Tigers are near the top on this list in football brand recognition and tradition, both have slipped on the field. Neither school is in the AAU; even if that factor isn’t a deal-breaker, it’s relevant to the university presidents/chancellors who call the shots in realignment.
Miami: Miami joined the AAU three years ago, has revived its football program and would give the conference a foothold in Florida. The Hurricanes’ lows have been low, but they offer a lot of upside and have a lot more in common with current Big Ten teams than you might think.
The Big Ten spot goes to …
Notre Dame. Chatter about the Irish joining the Big Ten only goes back some 127 years, but history and grudges kept them apart. The Irish’s proud tradition of independence could be detrimental in future College Football Playoff formats, so this game of realignment musical chairs forces Notre Dame to take one of the final available Power 4 spots. A Big Ten-Notre Dame union makes too much sense to pass up.
SEC
Spots available: 3
The SEC touts the fact that its footprint is contiguous, and it talked up the value of similar traditions and culture when it added Texas and Oklahoma. Again, football is a major driver.
Up for discussion
North Carolina: North Carolina borders three SEC states (Tennessee, Georgia and South Carolina). Adding a traditional basketball school might seem odd for a football-first conference. Does the Bill Belichick experiment help or hurt UNC? The results have been rough, but the Tar Heels proved they’re willing to spend more on football.
Florida State and Clemson: We’re lumping them together, again, because they sued the ACC over realignment issues and have many of the same pros and cons. The Seminoles and Tigers are the two best cultural fits. But both also sit in existing SEC states; that can be problematic for some administrators (Texas A&M wasn’t thrilled when the Longhorns joined) and doesn’t add new media markets to the mix (a factor that matters less than it used to but isn’t irrelevant).
Miami: The Hurricanes appear to be spending like an SEC/Big Ten team, and last year’s run to the national championship game proved The U can still be a contender on the field. Miami would be an odd match — more like Vanderbilt (a private school in a major metropolitan area) than Auburn or Georgia (public schools in college towns).
Virginia: Virginia Tech feels more like an SEC team — especially if James Franklin can get the program off the ground quickly this fall — but the Cavaliers are the flagship school of another contiguous state without a current SEC team. Virginia, like UNC, boasts an excellent academic reputation.
Texas Tech: A wild card entry for two reasons. First, the Red Raiders have proven they can compete in the modern era thanks to their financial backing and institutional commitment. The second involves a technical reading of the bill, so bear with us. The realignment provision applies only to conferences that reported $700 million on their most recent tax returns or will do so later. The Big Ten, SEC and ACC have hit that threshold already. The Big 12 hasn’t yet. If Texas Tech leaves before Big 12 revenue tops $700 million (likely this year), can the Red Raiders skip the independent requirement? If so, that makes Texas Tech a more viable option.
The SEC spots go to …
North Carolina and Virginia don’t necessarily have SEC-type vibes. But the conventional wisdom has been that both would be top SEC targets because of their academics and geography. It just means more for the Tar Heels and Cavaliers. FSU and Clemson are good fits for the league, but football uncertainty and in-state political issues from Florida and South Carolina are concerns. Instead, we’ll give the final spot to Miami thanks to a recent football rise that looks sustainable.
ACC
Spots available: 2-5
Today, the ACC has only two empty slots, but the above departures of North Carolina, Virginia and Miami open up three more. The conference stressed the academic value of Cal, Stanford and SMU when they joined, so that’s a guiding principle. The conference also puts a greater premium on broad-based athletic success than mere football might.
Up for discussion
Notre Dame: We must mention the Irish because they’re already non-football ACC members, but they’re off the board.
UConn: The Huskies are the other independent program that could join quickly. They’re no longer a laughingstock in football, and their elite basketball teams would be a huge boost for a conference that still has its roots in the hardwood.
Tulane: It’s a top-tier research university and one of the top academic schools in the FBS not already in the Power 4. The Green Wave made the CFP last season (and beat ACC champion Duke) and were No. 1 in the American Conference in the Learfield Directors’ Cup, an all-sports set of rankings.
South Florida: The Bulls, like Miami, earned AAU membership in 2023. They’re finally serious about sports, spending more than $300 million on a new on-campus football stadium that will open next year and funding one of the biggest G6 player payrolls. But USF has never won a conference title in football and has traditionally struggled in men’s basketball.
Memphis: Since 2014, Memphis has won at least 10 games five times under three coaches. It also has a strong basketball pedigree (three Elite Eight runs this century), but its academic reputation isn’t sterling.
Army/Navy: Academics aren’t an issue with this pair. They don’t contribute much geographically and are in the Patriot League in most sports, but their national brands and fan bases are a selling point. They’re a combined 40-13 in football over the last two seasons and would add a marquee rivalry to the mix. But can they compete at the highest level in the era of player compensation?
Boise State: If football matters most, the Broncos are an easy choice. But their all-sports standings have been shaky (No. 156 last year), and they’re No. 301 in the U.S. News & World Report’s academic rankings (however imperfect those rankings are).
Colorado State: This top-tier research school offers football potential with a relatively new stadium but not much in the way of results (zero conference titles since 2002). The Rams, like Boise State, continue spreading the ACC from its geographic roots, which is good and bad.
The ACC spots go to …
Tulane checks the ACC-specific boxes to earn one seat. American colleague USF joins, too, preferring the ACC to a War on I-4 reunion with UCF in the Big 12. Previous Big 12 talks stalled, so we’re slotting UConn here. We considered other wild cards (Rice? James Madison?) before settling on Army and Navy as our final two (football-only) members because of name recognition, stability and academic prestige.
Big 12
Spots available: 3
The conference praised the “great markets, great fan bases and great brands” of Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado and Utah when they joined. We’ll assume those remain key criteria. We’ll also put a greater emphasis on men’s basketball (which the league has considered undervalued nationally).
Up for discussion
Florida State: The Seminoles explored the Big 12 around 2012, so they’re worth mentioning as an unlikely option if the SEC and Big Ten pass.
Air Force: The Falcons offer a profile similar to Army and Navy but sit in the Big 12’s geographic region. One drawback: back-to-back losing seasons in football.
Memphis: The Tigers tried unsuccessfully to buy their way into the Big 12 a year ago. But the realignment world spins quickly, and the basketball factor looms large here.
San Diego State: This also looked like a possibility a few years ago before falling apart. The Aztecs’ new stadium sits in a top-30 media market. San Diego State has five double-digit-win seasons since 2015 and made the national title game in men’s basketball three years ago.
Boise State: If the Big 12 wants more big brands, then Boise State is the best football option available. The Broncos haven’t had a losing season since 1997, and their blue turf is unmistakable.
UNLV: The Rebels are 21-7 over the past two football seasons and have a strong men’s basketball history (if you go back a bit). The Las Vegas market and Nevada’s growing population help, too. But, recent years aside, the football program has rarely been nationally relevant.
Washington State/Oregon State: No one has lost more through realignment than the Cougars and Beavers. They bring power-conference pedigrees but have smaller fan bases with mixed track records; there’s a reason the Big 12 and ACC opted against taking them last time.
The Big 12 spots go to …
Boise State and Memphis feel like obvious additions as two of the G6’s biggest programs. San Diego State has been burned before but gets the last spot; the Aztecs have too much potential to get left behind again and would add a new state to the Big 12’s sprawling footprint.
