MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Friday, August 7.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and tools from our friends at Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
Our Opta AI MLB Player Prop Projections are also available.
6:40 PM Eastern
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Jose Soriano makes his first start as a member of the Blue Jays and has always been significantly better on the road. He posts a lifetime 4.55 home ERA compared to a 3.08 road ERA with less than 0.6 home runs per nine innings allowed. Phillies starting pitcher Zack Wheeler is registering a 2.49 ERA with 10.8 strikeouts and two walks per nine innings. The Blue Jays are last in the league in scoring with less than 3.9 runs per game.
Pick: Blue Jays vs. Phillies Under 8.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 7.9
7:05 PM Eastern
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Yankees
Yankees starting pitcher Max Fried has been a master at inducing soft contact, allowing just one home run in 75 innings and posting a 3.12 ERA with 8.2 strikeouts per nine innings. He is supported by a bullpen that is second in the league in ERA at 3.11. The Yankees’ offense is cold, averaging 3.4 runs per game in their past 35 games. Tyler Mahle makes his debut for the Braves, posting a 5.13 ERA but a lower 4.35 fielding independent with 8.5 strikeouts per nine innings. He is supported by a Braves bullpen that is number one in ERA in the National League at 3.41.
Pick: Braves vs. Yankees Under 8.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 7.9
7:10 PM Eastern
Los Angeles Angels vs. Miami Marlins
The Angels offense has been absolutely abysmal at the plate since the All-Star Break, scoring only 47 runs in 18 games. They give George Klassen the start. Klassen has an 11.57 ERA in his small sample size of 4 2/3 innings with 10 walks allowed. Marlins starting pitcher Tyler Phillips has a 3.53 ERA and 4.59 fielding independent with 6.6 strikeouts and 3.8 walks per nine innings. His ERA is 1.63 at home compared to 5.90 away from home.
Picks: Marlins Run Line -1.5 +130 and Under 9 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Marlins -1.5 +113 and Total 8.4
8:15 PM Eastern
Colorado Rockies vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Rockies starting pitcher Ryan Feltner owns a 5.75 ERA with two home runs and 3.5 walks per nine innings. The Rockies bullpen is last in the National League in ERA at 4.96. Cardinals starting pitcher Kyle Leahy has a 3.44 ERA but a higher 3.97 fielding independent, getting only 7.6 strikeouts and allowing 2.9 walks per nine innings. The Cardinals rank 23rd in bullpen ERA at 4.36.
Picks: Cardinals Run Line -1.5 +140 and Over 8.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Cardinals -1.5 -103 and Total 8.8
9:40 PM Eastern
Houston Astros vs. San Diego Padres
Robbie Ray makes his first start as a member of the Padres. He has a 3.08 ERA but a much higher 4.36 fielding independent with 7.9 strikeouts and 4.2 walks per nine innings. Astros starting pitcher Ronel Blanco has struggled since coming off the injured list, posting a 7.36 ERA with 3.1 home runs and 4.9 walks per nine innings. The Padres entered Thursday averaging over 5.6 runs per game since the All-Star Break.
Pick: Padres Moneyline -115
Greg’s Handicap: Padres -147
