Even so, regional powers were determined to hold Hamas to it – a point made in forceful terms as the group’s delegates gathered in Egypt. Never before had they faced such unity from regional powers, including traditional allies such as Turkey and Qatar.
“Trump’s 20-point plan is the capstone on the pyramid,” a Western diplomat said. “Beneath it lies months of patient diplomacy that forged an unprecedented consensus across Europe, the Middle East and North America.
“For the first time Hamas has been told by all its Middle Eastern partners that it must release the hostages – and that it can have no role in Gaza’s governance.”
Hamas has yet to give a clear answer to the more contentious parts of Mr Trump’s plan, notably whether it will disarm or accept a transitional administration under an international trusteeship overseen by Mr Trump and Sir Tony Blair, the former prime minister.
Hostage deal ‘good for regime’
But the first phase, a prisoner-for-hostage swap, proved far less contentious.
Regional mediators warned Hamas that refusing to release the hostages would allow Mr Netanyahu to resume his war with the full backing of Mr Trump, and would risk eroding growing global support for the Palestinian cause.
Conversely, if Hamas released the hostages and Israel later reignited the conflict, international outrage would be fiercer than ever.
Hamas, which had drawn similar conclusions, may also have calculated that freeing the hostages would give it greater scope to negotiate or resist more contentious issues such as disarmament.
“The fact is that Hamas has more leverage without the hostages than with them,” the Gulf official said. “Israel can justify renewed hostilities if Hamas still holds the hostages. Going back to war because Hamas hasn’t complied with abstract demands is harder to defend.”
Still, the leadership needed convincing. Exacting a far lower price for the hostages was a gamble – and one that could easily misfire.
Mr Netanyahu, after all, abandoned a previous three-phase ceasefire deal that was meant to pave the way to permanent peace when Israel resumed hostilities in March. Mr Trump did little to restrain him then.
