Some analysts have estimated that Reeves will have to raise tens of billions of pounds through either increasing taxes or cutting spending in order to meet her rules which she has described as “non-negotiable”.
The two main rules are:
Before the 2024 general election, Labour promised not to increase income tax, National Insurance or VAT for working people.
The IFS said it would be possible for the chancellor to raise tens of billions of pounds a year more in revenue without breaking these manifesto promises, but this would not be straightforward.
Its director Helen Miller told BBC’s Radio 4’s Today programme: “The politics is important and we’re going to hear lots and lots about whether Rachel Reeves can raise the money she wants without breaking one of her manifesto pledges – and that’s worth thinking about – but the economics is important too.”
The IFS said there are “serious constraints” on the next four biggest taxes – corporation tax, council tax, business rates and fuel duties – while “some other tax-raising options would be especially economically harmful”.
The IFS’s comments came in an extract from its annual Green Budget, which analyses the challenges facing the chancellor.
In it, the think tank urged wider reform to the tax system which would align “overall tax rates across different forms of income”, something it says would be “fairer and more growth friendly”.
“There is an opportunity to be bold and take steps towards a system that does less to impede growth and works better for us all,” said Ms Miller who is one of the authors of the report.
It suggests reforms to property tax and capital gains tax as “good places to start”.
Speaking to the Today programme Ms Miller said that stamp duty is an “absolutely awful tax” and said council tax, which is based on 1991 property valuations, is “ludicrously out of date” and “regressive”.
“Make it a tax based on up-to-date property values, make it proportional, and raise revenue from that rather than the current council tax and stamp duty,” she added.
Ms Miller said Ms Reeves’s last Budget was “full of tax increases”, leaving “only losers”, adding that “reform means you could have some winners”.
“If you do a reform approach, you can say you’re doing something for a principled reason, and make the system better, make us all better off, ultimately. At least you’ve got some good news to go alongside the inevitable upset from raised taxes.”
