Why San Marino must lose (heavily) to maintain slim hopes of World Cup qualification – The Athletic
San Marino may be at the bottom of the 210 soccer-playing nations in FIFA’s men’s world rankings, but the microstate still has a possibility of qualifying for next year’s World Cup.
The mountainous region in north-central Italy, home to fewer than 34,000 inhabitants, has unsurprisingly lost all seven of its World Cup qualification matches to date, scoring just one goal and conceding 32.
San Marino has only won three of its 219 matches and none of its 169 qualification games for either a World Cup or European Championship. All three of those victories have come against Liechtenstein, another European microstate with a population of 40,000, including two in its recent Nations League campaign.
The Nations League was devised by UEFA, European football’s governing body, in 2018 to minimise friendlies — non-competitive matches — and give countries meaningful encounters with similarly-ranked teams. The outcomes of the Nations League also feed into the qualification process for major tournaments, with the four highest-ranked group winners who did not qualify automatically entering a seeded play-off system.
San Marino’s two victories over Liechtenstein last year, coupled with a draw against Gibraltar, saw it top its Nations League D group.
How do the European World Cup play-offs work?
Twelve European spots are decided by the winners of the 12 qualifying groups, while four nations will qualify through UEFA’s 16-team play-offs, to be played in March 2026. These play-offs will involve 16 teams, who will be split into four paths of four, with each path containing two semi-finals and a final to determine the four extra nations which qualify for the World Cup.
Those 16 teams will comprise 12 group-stage runners-up plus the four best-ranked group winners from the Nations League who did not finish in the top two of their groups in World Cup qualifying.
These were the 14 Nations League group winners for 2024-25, based on ranking priority: Spain, Germany, Portugal, France, England, Norway, Wales, Czechia, Romania, Sweden, North Macedonia, Northern Ireland, Moldova and San Marino.
As things stand, only Wales, Romania, Sweden, Moldova and San Marino of those nations are not in the top two of their respective World Cup qualification groups, meaning that San Marino — as the lowest-ranked of those five sides — would be the one nation to miss out on a play-off spot.
However, there is an important caveat: Romania are in San Marino’s qualification group, and are currently third, behind second-placed Bosnia & Herzegovina and first-placed Austria. Romania play away to Bosnia on November 15, before hosting San Marino on the final matchday, and whether Romania beats Bosnia to a top-two finish — with Austria looking likely to keep first place — is likely to be decided by goal difference.
UEFA Qualifying Group H
Pos.TeamMPPtsWDLGFGAGD
1
Austria
6
15
5
0
1
19
3
16
2
Bosnia
6
13
4
1
1
13
5
8
3
Romania
6
10
3
1
2
11
6
5
4
Cyprus
7
8
2
2
3
11
9
2
5
San Marino
7
0
0
0
7
1
32
-31
In this scenario, San Marino’s best interests would be served not only by losing to Romania but by losing by as many goals as possible to ensure Romania secure a top-two finish at the expense of Bosnia and therefore create a play-off opening for itself. After hosting Romania, Bosnia faces first-placed Austria in its final qualification match on November 18, when San Marino plays Romania. Austria, meanwhile, face fourth-placed Cyprus on November 15 before its game against Bosnia.
If Bosnia gets favourable results against Romania and/or Austria, San Marino’s slim chances of World Cup qualification will dwindle.
San Marino will also hope that Czechia, Sweden and Northern Ireland maintain a top-two group finish to boost its own hopes. North Macedonia and Wales are in the same group, so one will miss out on a play-off spot, while Moldova has lost all five group matches and therefore cannot mathematically qualify through its group.
San Marino can therefore only make a play-off spot if one or fewer of Romania, Czechia, Sweden and Northern Ireland miss out on a top-two finish in their groups.
The four teams who qualify for the World Cup qualification play-offs through the Nations League route will be in pot four, meaning they will play away against a pot one side — the four World Cup qualifying group runners-up with the best FIFA world ranking — in their play-off semi-final.
The other semi-final will see a pot two side, ranked fifth to eighth in the world ranking list, hosting a team from pot three, ranked ninth to 12th.
What do the rules say?
FIFA, world football’s governing body, prohibits teams from deliberately losing, which it considers to be a form of match manipulation which is punishable by sanctions including disqualification and suspensions.
Match manipulation is described by FIFA as “the unlawful influencing or alteration, directly or by an act or omission, of the course, result or any other aspect of a football match or competition.”
This can include “the deliberate loss of a match or a phase of a match” and “deliberately performing badly during a match”.
So far, San Marino has recorded losses of 0-2 (Cyprus), 1-5 (Romania), 0-1 (Bosnia), 0-4 (Cyprus), 0-6 (Austria), 0-10 (Austria), 0-4 (Cyprus) in their qualification campaign.
San Marino’s international troubles
While Eritrea, which has not played a match since 2020, are unofficially unranked by FIFA, San Marino has been rooted to the bottom of the world standings since November 2023.
San Marino’s 6,600-capacity home stadium is often barely half full for matches, with travelling supporters occasionally outnumbering the hosts.
San Marino has been on the wrong end of some heavy defeats since their first official match in 1990 — including a 13-0 loss to Germany in 2006 — and has never won a match in a qualifying phase for a major tournament.
It has, however, caused some concerns to major nations, famously recording what was then the fastest goal in a World Cup qualifier when Davide Gualtieri scored after eight seconds against England in 1993 before going on to lose 7-1.
It was around the same time that San Marino achieved its highest-ever FIFA ranking of 118, but their football story had been one of relentless struggle since then.
San Marino’s 2004 friendly win over Liechtenstein was the high point before their victories over the same nation in last year’s Nations League.
