The SNP believe that prospect, and the expectation of further UK tax rises, will limit Scottish Labour’s ability to recover its electoral position over the next seven months.
Labour desperately needs to show progress to be considered as a serious alternative to the SNP.
They hope that their fortunes will improve as the May election draws nearer and the focus on devolved Scottish public services becomes more acute.
The SNP’s political opponents – including the Conservatives, Labour and the Liberal Democrats – see talk of independence as a distraction from the day-to-day business of delivery on health, education and law and order.
The SNP hopes the goal of independence can unite and motivate its activists to campaign, can motivate its membership to turnout to vote, and can motivate lapsed supporters to return to the party.
If that works, a fifth term in power at Holyrood is in prospect – even if the SNP falls short of the outright majority that led to the 2014 vote on independence.
And that, they hope, can overcome UK opposition and secure a second referendum.
