Chicago Bears progress report: 10 telling metrics ahead of Monday’s showcase game – The Athletic

The Athletic has live coverage of Bills vs Falcons and Bears vs Commanders in NFL ‘Monday Night Football’

Stop us if any of this sounds familiar. The Chicago Bears are emerging from their October bye week with a mini-winning streak plus a surge of confidence. Their next game will be in Landover, Md., a prime-time game against the Washington Commanders that should offer a progress report on the team’s direction.

Undoubtedly, there are parallels to 2024 when the Bears — off their bye and riding a three-game winning streak — visited the Commanders for a showcase game with hopes that their season was ascending. Instead, their offense was abysmal through a scoreless first half; the defense failed to properly defend a final-play Hail Mary; and a gutting 18-15 loss at Northwest Stadium became the catalyst for a losing streak that lasted more than two months.

This, of course, is a new season. With new coaching leadership and new tests ahead. Thus, the scars of Oct. 27, 2024, shouldn’t factor into the Bears’ preparation this week or their performance Monday night.

Still, the Bears should understand the importance of a game like this, a test of how equipped they are to play competitive football against established playoff contenders. As Monday approaches, we’ve trained our microscope on 10 key statistical metrics that have defined the team over the first four games and could prove significant for the rest of the season.

2-2

Naturally, we’re starting with the .500 record, a fitting indicator of this team’s roller-coaster September. The two NFC North losses to open the season stung. But the Bears rebounded with encouraging victories — a home thrashing of the Cowboys followed by a character-building come-from-behind magic act in Las Vegas. Just like that … back to .500.

Since the NFL expanded to a 16-game schedule in 1978, the Bears have split their first four games 13 times. Across those 13 seasons, the team has qualified for the playoffs twice — in 1979 and 1994. The climb will be steep. But the chance to reset at 2-2 proved energizing.

164.5

Rushing yards per game allowed by the Bears defense through Week 5, second worst in the NFL. They are allowing a league-worst 6.2 yards per rush. Two weeks ago, the Bears allowed 240 rushing yards to the Raiders at a 7.7 yards-per-carry clip. That marked the most rushing yards allowed by the Bears in a win since 1979. It’s no secret that stabilizing the run defense must be a priority for coordinator Dennis Allen.

Bears coach Ben Johnson has identified problems with his team’s tackling in space while also emphasizing the need for technique improvement in shedding blocks.

Of additional significance this week: the Commanders lead the NFL in rushing at 156.4 yards per game and 5.9 yards per attempt. Rookie Jacory Croskey-Merritt turned 14 rushes into 111 yards and two touchdowns in Sunday’s Commanders win over the Chargers and now leads the league with 6.6 yards per carry.

102.3

Rushing yards per game by the offense. The search for an identity in the ground game continues. D’Andre Swift has totaled just 187 rushing yards through four games, with his 3.3 yards-per-carry average coming in below his career-worst average of 3.8 yards per carry from last season.

Johnson rallied to Swift’s defense after the win against the Raiders and doubled down Tuesday with his assertion that the running game problems are all-encompassing. “There are a lot of times on that tape where we’re not giving our runners a chance.”

There’s an ongoing push for offensive linemen to be cleaner with their combinations; for the running backs to hit the right tracks; for the perimeter blockers to be on point and for the quarterback to carry out his fakes with more purpose.

“It’s going to take a little bit of time for our guys to all mesh together,” Johnson said. “That’s what the tape looks like now.”

Raiders defensive end Maxx Crosby pressures Bears quarterback Caleb Williams in Las Vegas. (Stephen R. Sylvanie / Imagn Images)

5.1

Sack rate for Bears quarterback Caleb Williams this season. In a 31-14 beating of Dallas two weeks ago, Williams was not sacked for the first time in his career. Seven days later in Las Vegas, despite significantly more pressure, he was sacked only once. After taking 68 sacks with a 10.8 percent sack rate as a rookie, Williams’ improvement in this department is encouraging.

Williams has credited his offensive line for sturdy protection while acknowledging his increased familiarity with his linemen’s strengths and weaknesses.

“Maybe I play off that in the pocket and feel that and know where I need to set up or roll out or get out of the pocket at certain times,” he said. “It’s being able to have those guys’ back when things don’t go right.”

Williams ranks 14th in sack rate among quarterbacks with at least 100 attempts. Last season, among 28 quarterbacks who threw at least 300 passes, he ranked 27th.

13

Williams’ completions of 20 yards or more. Wide receiver Rome Odunze has been on the receiving end of five such passes, including touchdown grabs of 28, 35 and 27 yards. Williams’ explosive completions have come in all shapes and sizes. Deep shots, screens, improvised plays, even a flea-flicker touchdown to Luther Burden III. Still, for Johnson’s offense to reach its potential, the chunk plays must become even more frequent. A year ago, Williams averaged 2.41 explosive completions per start. This year, to date, he has averaged 3.25.

5

Touchdown catches by Odunze, including at least one in each game. Odunze, who had just three TDs as a rookie, has become the third Bear ever to record five touchdown receptions through the first four games, matching Brandon Marshall (2014) and Dennis McKinnon (1985). Marshall finished 2014 with eight touchdown grabs; McKinnon totaled seven scores in 1985.

Odunze’s chemistry with Williams continues to build. He is also ascending with a professional consistency that has caught Johnson’s attention. “He’s a guy who’s committed to winning right now,” Johnson said this week.

Dick Gordon and Ken Kavanaugh hold the Bears’ single-season record for receiving TDs with 13 — in 1970 and 1947, respectively.

40

Total penalties by the Bears, including six that were declined. Twenty-six of those infractions have been committed by the offense, including 11 pre-snap fouls. In Johnson’s thorough bye-week self-scouting, one theme felt consistent.

“We were playing behind the sticks (regularly),” he said, “and you can certainly feel that as I was calling it.”

On 43 drives — excluding game-ending kneel-down possessions — 19 have included at least one offensive penalty. The Bears had squeezed points out of only three of 13 such possessions over the first three games, then rallied for two touchdowns and two field goals on drives that included a penalty against the Raiders.

“We were pretty good at getting back on track as much as we could,” Johnson said. “But it’s just not sustainable when you’re playing football that way.”

31

Points scored by the Bears in the first quarter. Last season, the team managed 27 total first-quarter points across the entire 17-game campaign, shut out in the first quarter 12 times. This season’s quicker starts have included a pair of opening-drive touchdowns. The Bears would love to replicate that Monday against a Commanders team that has been outscored 30-14 in the first quarter.

521

Yards gained by Johnson’s Lions offense in their 45-31 divisional-round playoff loss to the Commanders last winter. Detroit outgained Washington by 40 yards and held a 30-27 advantage in first downs but still lost, largely because of five turnovers.

Johnson has been overflowing with praise this week for the style of defense the Commanders play under head coach Dan Quinn and coordinator Joe Whitt Jr. Still, one would imagine there’s something instructive in that playoff output from last winter that can help the Bears.

Johnson acknowledged the game flow of that postseason showdown, with the Commanders exploding for 312 yards and 31 points before halftime, pushing Detroit into a game of keep-up.

“You feel a little bit of pressure on offense to go score for score, and you don’t want to fall behind by two scores against a good team,” Johnson said. “So I might have been a little more aggressive with the play calls and got away from the game plan a little bit.”

23

Career field goals of 50 yards or longer by Cairo Santos. The Bears’ kicker connected from 52 and 51 yards against the Raiders during a four-field goal performance. In 89 career games with the Bears, Santos’ 50-plus field goal total has tied Robbie Gould’s franchise record. Santos has connected on 74.2 percent of his attempts from 50 yards or longer. Gould made an identical 74.2 percent of his tries from 50 or longer over 11 seasons in Chicago.

Now comes this week’s asterisk. Santos continues to work through a quadriceps issue that popped up during the Raiders game. His availability is worth monitoring. Practice squad kicker Jake Moody is on call. A third-round pick in 2023, Moody was released by the 49ers last month after missing two field goals in the season opener. His career accuracy is 74.2 percent from any range and 50 percent from 50 yards or longer.