The New York Independent System Operator, which manages the state’s power grid, issued a new assessment on Tuesday that again warns that there may be “significant reliability shortfalls within the next ten years.”
Times Union file photo
ALBANY — The New York Independent System Operator, which manages the state’s power grid, issued a new assessment on Tuesday that warns there may be “significant reliability shortfalls within the next ten years.”
A second, short-term assessment issued by the grid operator said that over the next five years there may be “reliability violations” in New York City and Long Island beginning next summer. Those problems are a result of power plant deactivations and also “increasing consumer demand and transmission limitations.”
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“Taken together, these two reports show the grid is at a significant inflection point,” said Zach Smith, a senior vice president with the New York Independent System Operator. “Depending on future demand growth and generator retirements, the system may need several thousand megawatts of new dispatchable generation within the next ten years.”
The ability of New York’s energy grid to adequately handle future electricity needs is narrowing as power plants are aging and not being replaced, demand is expected to increase, and the zero-emission mandates of the state’s Climate Act are in place.
Gas shortages also are expected to add stress to the future winter power supplies over the next decade during cold snaps.
Gov. Kathy Hochul as well as many business and energy sector stakeholders have cautioned that New York’s future energy needs will need to be augmented by what they are terming the governor’s “all-of-the-above” plan. What that means — although a statement issued Tuesday by Hochul’s office did not explicitly state it — is that “dispatchable” sources, including natural gas and nuclear plants, are likely to have to be developed for New York to meet its future energy needs. That may also require aging fossil fuel plants to be upgraded.
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But that would conflict with a provision from the 2019 Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act that mandates the elimination of fossil fuels to generate electricity in the state by 2040.
Tuesday’s reports by the independent system operator are why Hochul “has been aggressively pushing an all-of-the-above agenda that will increase the state’s energy supply to moderate costs, help ensure the lights and heat stay on for New Yorkers, and attract major 21st century economic development projects,” said Ken Lovett, a spokesman for the governor.
Justin Wilcox, the executive director of Upstate United, which bills itself as a “non-partisan, business and taxpayer advocacy coalition focused on growing the upstate economy,” issued a statement Tuesday saying it is only the second time that reliability violations are forecast for New York City and Long Island and that state’s grid is “increasingly unable to meet demand.”
“For years, Upstate United has warned that New York’s energy mandates are undermining reliability, affordability, and competitiveness,” Wilcox said. “Now, even as state leaders concede that the Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act… is unrealistic, no corrective action has been taken to fix it. … The message could not be clearer: under current policies, the grid will not be able to accommodate large-load projects or sustain continued electrification.”
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The latest prognosis, which has findings that are similar to a biennial assessment that NYISO issued a year ago, comes as green energy advocates are continuing to pressure state lawmakers and regulators to maintain the mandates of New York’s 2019 Climate Act. Business and energy sector stakeholders in turn have been supportive of the zero-emission goals but also have asked for a full assessment of the costs and whether the mandates can be met.
Earthjustice, a nonprofit environmental law organization, issued a statement blaming state leaders who they said have “repeatedly failed to follow through on clean energy, storage, and transmission projects that would have supplied New York with abundant, affordable, clean energy.”
When the 2019 Climate Act was passed, lawmakers apparently did not foresee the ongoing expansion in New York of the manufacturing sectors that develop semiconductors, crypto currency and data centers. The proliferation of those sectors, along with an aging transmission grid and decades-old fossil fuel plants, has upended many of the mandates that were spelled out in that legislation.
“New York’s electric system faces an era of profound reliability challenges as resource retirements accelerate, economic development drives demand growth, and project delays undermine confidence in future supply,” the system operator’s 10-year report states. “Additionally, 25% of the state’s total generating capacity is fossil-fuel-based generation that has been in operation for more than 50 years. As these generators age, they are experiencing more frequent and longer outages.”
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Expected increases in peak demand — along with limited supplies and state lawmakers’ decision to begin shutting down small gas plants — are among the factors contributing to the system operator’s call for a new approach to planning the state’s future energy and transmission needs.
That approach includes evaluating “a wider range of plausible emerging risks, rather than relying solely on a deterministic base case,” and incorporating “the probability of aging generation or catastrophic failures, recognizing that these risks grow significantly over time.”
Many of the state’s power generators are approaching 70 years old with no clear indication of how long they may last. System operator officials have previously warned that New York is not adding enough power generation and is continuing to rely on those aging plants.
Solar installations have been increasing in New York, especially for residences and small commercial projects that are “behind the meter,” but in the winter months solar generation declines as the sun is lower in the sky and days are shorter.
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Some lawmakers, including New York’s congressional members who have supported doling out billions of dollars in federal aid to chip fab expansions at Micron Technologies in Rochester and GlobalFoundries in Malta, have continued to assert that “clean energy” will be able to power those facilities.
Heather Mulligan, president and CEO of the Business Council of New York State, also issued a statement Tuesday that cited the same “all-of-the-above” strategy highlighted by the governor’s office.
“The report shows growing evidence that the state needs to update its energy policies and underlying energy and environmental mandates,” Mulligan said. “New York’s business community has repeatedly emphasized the need for reliable and affordable power, supporting the NESE (Northeast Supply Enhancement Project) pipeline project to meet those needs.”
The Northeast Supply Enhancement Project is the proposed expansion of a pipeline that will supply natural gas from Pennsylvania to the New York City area.
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The Independent Power Producers of New York issued a statement saying the independent system operator’s assessments “identified reliability needs in New York City in 2026, in Long Island in 2027, and in the Hudson Valley region in 2030, stemming from the planned retirements of peaker plants due to public policy and insufficient investment signals.”
They said the analysis also highlights the findings of an earlier report by the system operator that found aging plants, especially downstate, need to be retooled to offset the continued strain on the electric grid.
“The NYISO’s findings should be alarming to residents and serve as another wake up call for the state,” said Gavin J. Donohue, president and CEO of the Independent Power Producers of New York. “Electric demand is continuing to drastically rise, and the state needs to look at all possible resources to safeguard the strict reliability standards that millions of New Yorkers depend on. … All potential solutions must be on the table.”
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