San Marino can still mathematically qualify for the 2026 World Cup due to their success in the 2024-25 Nations League, despite their poor performance in qualifying.
San Marino, ranked 210th and last in Fifa’s world rankings, have lost all seven of their Group H matches in qualifying for next year’s World Cup and are guaranteed to finish bottom of their group heading into their final fixture against Romania next month.
However, in the Nations League campaign prior to the start of World Cup qualifying, San Marino finished top of Nations League group D1, putting them in contention for a play-off qualifying spot.
Sixteen European nations will qualify for next summer’s World Cup, the 12 group winners in qualifying automatically secure their place.
The 12 runners-up in each group then join the four best Nations League winners, who failed to finish in the top two of the groups in qualifying.
Of the 14 countries to win Nations League groups, Moldova and San Marino are currently the only nations not in line for a spot in the play-offs, but that could still change.
Wales, Romania, Sweden and Northern Ireland are the four sides currently earning play-off spots from Nations League performances.
San Marino need two of those teams to break into the top two of their groups without replacing another Nations League group winner.
It could see a situation where Romania, who are in San Marino’s qualifying group, need a win over San Marino – by a significant margin – to move into the top two on the final matchday. Romania may need to improve their goal difference in order to overtake Bosnia and Herzegovina – who they play three days earlier.
For Sweden, they have a slim mathematical chance of breaking into the top two of their qualifying group, meaning the performances of Wales, Northern Ireland and Romania will effectively dictate San Marino’s World Cup hopes.
