The Nevada football team plays at New Mexico on Saturday. Nevada Sports Net’s Chris Murray breaks down the game against the Lobos with his three keys to victory and prediction. This feature is presented in partnership with Bradley, Drendel & Jeanney.
Nevada (1-5, 0-2 MW) at New Mexico (3-3, 0-2)
When: Saturday, 6:45 p.m. (Pacific time)
Where: University Stadium (capacity 39,224)
Surface: FieldTurf
Weather: High of 68; low of 43
TV/Radio: FS1/105.7 FM (also on the Varsity Network)
Online: None
Betting line: New Mexico favored by 11.5; total of 49.5
All-time series: Nevada leads, 6-3-1
Last matchup: Nevada won, 34-24, on Oct. 28, 2023 (in Reno)
Three keys to the game
1. A faster start: Nevada is not equipped to dig out of a big hole, but the Wolf Pack has dug big holes the last two games. Nevada trailed Fresno State, 20-3, at halftime two weeks ago and was down 35-0 at intermission against San Diego State last week. That’s a combined score of 55-3 in the last two first halves. With Nevada sitting at 1-5, the team’s spirit could certainly be dampened, making a fast start Saturday against New Mexico paramount. An 11.5-point underdog, the Wolf Pack needs to keep this game close early to build some belief it can win a Mountain West game, something it hasn’t done since October 2023. New Mexico is coming off back-to-back losses and has been more of a second-half team (the Lobos are plus-42 in the second half and minus-six in the first half). But it’s more crucial for Nevada to come out playing well and keep this game interesting at halftime so it has a shot at the upset late.
2. Score points off turnovers: One thing is for sure – there will be turnovers in this game. Nevada leads the nation with 16 and New Mexico isn’t far behind with 14 (tied for fourth worst in the FBS). Neither team creates many turnovers with Nevada at five and New Mexico at four. Both schools are well under water in turnover margin with Nevada at minus-11 and New Mexico at minus-10. When the turnovers do come, we’ll see which team does the best job of capitalizing. Nevada’s offense has scored just three points off turnovers, that being a 33-yard field goal after an 18-yard drive against Middle Tennessee. Given the Wolf Pack’s offensive struggles, Nevada’s defense must secure multiple turnovers – New Mexico QB Jack Layne has six giveaways the last two games – and convert those opportunities to points.
3. Win the run game battle: New Mexico’s offensive success starts with its run game. In their three wins, the Lobos have averaged 215.3 rushing yards, 5.2 yards per carry and scored seven touchdowns on the ground. In their three losses, the Lobos have averaged 58.3 rushing yards, 2.2 yards per carry and scored zero times on the ground. If you can stop New Mexico’s run game, you can have a lot of success against the Lobos. Nevada did not have success with its run defense last week as San Diego State tallied 204 yards, the most the Wolf Pack has allowed all season. New Mexico has a fairly young offensive line, so Nevada, whose physicality was called out by head coach Jeff Choate after the loss to the Aztecs, has a good shot of limiting the Lobos’ rushing attack, which will be the defense’s top priority.
Prediction
New Mexico 27, Nevada 20: This feels like a winnable game for Nevada, but the Wolf Pack hasn’t won many games of late – 2-23 in its last 25 MW matchups with its last conference win 720 days ago, that coming versus New Mexico. It’s hard to tell what Nevada will look like given the uncertainty at quarterback. Carter Jones played like a veteran in the second half against Fresno State and like the true freshmen he is throughout last week’s game against San Diego State. New Mexico’s defense, specifically its pass defense, is nowhere near the level of the Aztecs. But the defensive line is good. Given how often these teams turn the ball over, takeaways will be paramount, and that’s an area where Nevada has really struggled. Season record: 4-2 (straight up); 2-4 (against the spread)
Columnist Chris Murray provides insight on Northern Nevada sports. Contact him at [email protected] or follow him on Twitter at @ByChrisMurray.
