La Niña may sound exotic, but it’s actually a pretty common weather event. “Believe it or not, we went through three straight La Niña winters between 2020 and 2023,” said Michelle L’Heureux, a meteorologist with NOAA’s El Niño–Southern Oscillation team, in an interview with The Oregonian/OregonLive in 2024. “We’ve had plenty of La Niña years.”
Last winter brought more of the same, with another La Niña-like pattern showing up.
Now, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center says there’s a 71% chance La Niña conditions will return between October and December.
So what does that mean for Oregon as another potential La Niña winter begins to build out in the Pacific Ocean?
It depends—cooler and wetter is the general trend
Typically, La Niña means a winter that’s cooler and wetter than usual for Oregon. But global climate change is adding a new layer of unpredictability.
Fall across the Pacific Northwest is already forecast to be wetter than normal, and it could turn out cooler as well.
That said, the seasonal outlook for December 2025 through February 2026 is less decisive. It shows equal odds for an average amount of rain, a wetter season, or a drier one.
NOAA seasonal precipitation forecast for December through February. Courtesy of NOAA.
The temperature outlook offers more specifics. According to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, northwest Oregon is expected to see a colder-than-normal winter.
NOAA seasonal temperature forecast for December through February. Courtesy of NOAA.
And if La Niña hasn’t formed by December, it still might—but the odds drop to 54% by February.
So while La Niña may not be a sure thing, its likely return—and the broader trends linked to it—suggest Oregon could be in for a chilly, soggy season once again.
