NFL best bets Week 8: Panthers and Giants to cover as underdogs vs. Bills, Eagles and more
My NFL Projection Model has been running incredibly well, and I mentioned last week that I didn’t expect this pace to continue. Well, naturally, we didn’t win a bet last week. It was a smaller betting card during Week 7, thankfully, but a tough pill to swallow no matter what.
I bet on Baker Mayfield after his “MVP” campaign in the first third of the season, and he promptly played his worst game of the season and left some points on the board. Joe Flacco — or Ja’Marr Chase — went bonkers to nuke our under. And I think the Houston Texans are trending towards the “Do Not Bet” list. Anyway, we move on to Week 8 and hope we can get back on track.
Last week’s record: 0-3, -3.11 units
Season record: 20-15, +3.93 units, +10.3% ROI
Four bets this week to hopefully turn around the reverse sweep from last week. I knew we would come back to earth, but if we could do it more slowly than getting swept, that would be appreciated. As always, shop around for the best price and good luck!
Week 8 best bets
Atlanta Falcons -7 (-110) vs. Miami Dolphins
Worst price to bet: Falcons -7 (-115)
The vibes are not great in Miami, and rumors of a fire sale before the trade deadline are starting to swirl. I’m a little queasy thinking about laying a full touchdown with the Falcons, but the Dolphins are that bad right now. My model doesn’t see a huge difference whether we get Michael Penix Jr. or Kirk Cousins for the Atlanta offense, and I believe both will be able to move the ball against a poor Dolphins secondary.
Carolina Panthers +7.5 (110) vs. Buffalo Bills
Worst price to bet: Panthers +7.5 (-115)
Bryce Young isn’t likely to go here, but I actually like the matchup a bit for the Panthers on both sides of the ball. No, I’m not saying they’re going to win, but I think there are multiple paths to victory here. First, the Bills’ defense is not great, especially on the ground. I think the Panthers can find some success on the ground here and give some relief to Andy Dalton and the passing game. Second, the Panthers’ run defense has been exceptional this year. If they can slow the Bills’ rushing attack and make them more one-dimensional, I don’t think the Bills will win by margin.
New York Giants +7 (-110) at Philadelphia Eagles
Worst price to bet: Giants +7 (-115)
Yes, the Giants bullied the Eagles just two weeks ago, and Philly may be looking for revenge, but the Eagles winning by margin is not something that I think is a wise bet right now. They just pulled edge rusher Brandon Graham out of retirement because they desperately need help on the edge of their defensive line. Meanwhile, I still don’t know if I’m a believer in this Giants offense, but they’re playing much better than they were even just a few weeks ago. Here’s to hoping for another version of the Giants stuffing the Eagles in a locker.
Cleveland Browns at New England Patriots over 40.5 (-110)
Worst price to bet: Over 40.5 (-115)
I know the Browns defense is good, but this Pats offense — paired with a lackluster defense — having a total less than 41 seems wild to me. Drake Maye has been incredible this year, and the offense has guys running wide open. I’m a big believer in this unit and a big believer in Maye, so I think they can score some points against this defense. On the flip side, I mentioned that I’m not a huge fan of the Pats on the defensive side of the ball. The Browns should be able to move the ball a bit here and do their part in getting us to the window.
