On Saturday, the BYU football team hits the road after an emotional win over rival Utah. The Cougars are undefeated and looking to remain in the lead in the conference title race. BYU is also looking to avoid a letdown after the rivalry game like the one lsat year against Kansas.
Iowa State, coming off two losses, is coming off a bye week. The Cyclones are the slight favorite in this game according to oddsmakers. As of Tuesday evening, Iowa State is a 3.5-point favorite.
Depending on the model, advanced analytics either agree or disagree with oddsmakers. Some are more bullish on BYU’s chances than others.
BCFToys gives BYU a 55.5% chance to beat Iowa State with a projected final score of 25.4-23.5 in favor of the Cougars. BCFToys ranks BYU as the 21st team nationally with an opponent-adjusted defensive efficiency ranking of no. 15 nationally and an offensive ranking of 29th nationally.
Iowa State ranks 31st nationally with an offensive ranking of 40th and a defensive rating of 30th.
SP+, a predictive metric invented by ESPN’s Bill Connelly, predicted BYU-Iowa State.
SP+ gives BYU a 58% chance to win with an expected final score of 27-23. BYU ranks 20th in SP+, headlined by the defense and special teams which ranks 12th and 7th nationally, respectively. The BYU offense ranks 34th nationally.
Iowa State ranks 33rd in SP+. The Cyclones are ranked 52rd on offense, 26th on defense, and 41st on special teams.
FPI is slightly less bullish on BYU’s chances. FPI gives BYU a 54% chance to win.
CFB Graphs is not nearly as bullish on BYU as other predictive models. And frankly, no model has been more wrong about BYU than CFB Graphs. CFB Graphs gives BYU a 44.7% chance to beat Iowa State with a projected final score of 23-26.
By the numbers, quality drive rate is a metric to watch in this game. These teams are mirror images of each other, so this game could come down to who takes better advantage of quality drives. Quality drive rate is essentially the percent of drives that go into an opponents’ 40 yard-line. BYU’s offense ranks 13th nationally in quality drive rate and Iowa State’s defense ranks 36th in quality drive rate allowed.
On the other side of the ball, ISU’s offense ranks 19th in quality drive rate and BYU’s defense ranks 43rd in quality drive rate allowed.
However, in terms of points scored per quality drive, BYU ranks 83rd and Iowa State ranks 84th. Both teams have struggled to turn quality drives into touchdowns this season. BYU’s redzone scoring has been trending up the last few months, and if BYU can continue to improve on that in this game, the Cougars will have advantage. The difference in the BYU-Utah game was the ability of the BYU defense to get out of drives deep in its own territory.
