The wait for UFC 321 is nearly over, and the MMA Knockout staff have made their picks for all five fights on the event’s main card.
Tom Aspinall kicks off his reign as undisputed heavyweight champion in the main event when he meets former interim titleholder Ciryl Gane, and a new strawweight champion will also be crowned in the co-headliner when Virna Jandiroba and Mackenzie Dern square off for the second time.
The main card is rounded out by Umar Nurmagomedov vs. Mario Bautista, Alexander Volkov vs. Jailton Almeida, and Aleksandar Rakić vs. Azamat Murzakanov. You can check out predictions for every fight from MMAKO’s Drew Beaupré (@mmameditations) and Zain Bando (@zainbando99) below.
Tom Aspinall after his interim title defense against Curtis Blaydes. / (John Sibley/REUTERS)
Drew Beaupré: I enjoy watching Aspinall just demolish top heavyweights in the first few minutes of a fight as much as anybody else, but I would also love to see what happens if Gane is able to avoid those early shots and take this fight into the later rounds. That being said, it’s hard to pick against Aspinall given how dominant he’s looked in most of his UFC outings. (Pick: Aspinall)
Zain Bando: I’m going to be blunt: I hate this fight, but it’s the reality we’re in. Tom Aspinall needs to make a statement in the worst way possible to prove his worth as the UFC’s best heavyweight. Gane hasn’t shown me much to believe he will make the fight competitive, so I think Aspinall wins impressively. (Pick: Aspinall)
Verdict: Unanimous for Aspinall
READ MORE: UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane full card, odds, start time, how to watch
Mackenzie Dern celebrates her victory by decision against Amanda Lemos during UFC 298 at Honda Center. / Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images
Drew: It’s fairly clear that the UFC would love for Dern to win this fight and get a belt wrapped around her waist, but I’m still surprised to see her lined as small favorite ahead of UFC 321 given that Jandiroba has gone 6-1 since losing their first meeting in 2020. Riding the momentum of five-straight wins, I expect “Carcará” to avenge her previous loss to Dern and claim the vacant strawweight belt. (Pick: Jandiroba)
Zain: I don’t see much of a change from their first fight nearly five years ago. Mackenzie Dern seems confident she’ll win by whatever she wants, while Jandiroba appears happy to be there. To me, that doesn’t scream “confidence,” so therefore, I like Dern to get the job done again and become the new champion. (Pick: Dern)
Verdict: Split 1-1
Merab Dvalishvili (red gloves) fights Umar Nurmagomedov (blue gloves) during UFC 311 at Intuit Dome. / Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images
Drew: This certainly isn’t an easy matchup for Nurmagomedov to try and bounce back from his first career loss, but it is a fight that would keep him squarely in the bantamweight title conversation if he wins it. I’ve enjoyed watching Bautista’s recent run and am hoping he can make things interesting here, but I expect that Nurmagomedov will return to the win column and snap the American’s win streak. (Pick: Nurmagomedov)
Zain: This is a huge fight. Umar Nurmagomedov is gunning for a second crack at gold, while Mario Bautista is attempting to shake up the division in a big way. I just think Nurmagomedov’s wrestling will be too much to handle on fight night, and Bautista’s best hope is an early finish, in my opinion. (Pick: Nurmagomedov)
Verdict: Unanimous for Nurmagomedov
Ciryl Gane (red gloves) fights Alexander Volkov (blues gloves) at T-Mobile Arena. / Stephen R. Sylvanie-Imagn Images
Drew: Volkov may have already lost to Aspinall and Gane (twice, although their most recent fight was a contentious split decision), but the winner of this bout would at least represent a first-time challenger for the UFC’s heavyweight title. We did see Volkov get submitted when he met Aspinall in 2022, but it’s going to be a tall task for Almeida to get the towering Russian to the mat and keep him there. (Pick: Volkov)
Zain: Another huge fight commences at heavyweight. I feel like Alexander Volkov is due for a huge win to erase the bitter taste that was the Ciryl Gane loss. But if he underestimates Jailton Almeida, he could be in for a rude awakening. Only time will tell, though. (Pick: Volkov)
Verdict: Unanimous for Volkov
READ MORE: UFC 321 reportedly loses fight less than 48 hours before event
Aleksandar Rakic during UFC 300 at T-Mobile Arena. / Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images
Drew: Even though he already boasts a 15-0 record, this is a pretty clear step up for Murzakanov compared to his previous UFC bouts. I’m tempted to pick Rakić given that he’ll have a significant height and reach advantage and has faced a higher level of competition, but unfortunately it’s also been more than four and a half years since his last win. (Pick: Murzakanov)
Zain: Aleksandar Rakić is due for a huge win after losing three-straight, including coming up short against former UFC Light Heavyweight Champion Magomed Ankalaev. Meanwhile, this feels like too big a step up for Azamat Murzakanov, leaving me confident Rakic will catch him with something. (Pick: Rakić)
Verdict: Split 1-1
Be sure to check back on our homepage for UFC 321 preliminary card predictions, as well as live coverage of the event on fight night.
• Undefeated MMA fighter impresses UFC legend by savagely choking opponent unconscious
• Only fighter to defeat UFC Champion Kayla Harrison could rejoin UFC after PFL release
• Dustin Poirier says retirement after UFC has been difficult for him
• UFC star ends retirement for return fight against fan favorite at UFC 323
Stick with MMAKnockout for more FREE coverage of the UFC and MMA.
Follow MMAKnockout on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram.
