SALT LAKE CITY — Kansas and Kansas State meet annually in the Sunflower Showdown, one of the most-played rivalries in college football history.
The 123rd edition will feature a pair of teams with no margin for error in the Big 12 race. A loss for both Kansas (4-3, 2-2 Big 12) and Kansas State (3-4, 2-2 Big 12) would be an elimination from the conference title race.
Kansas State has won 16 straight in the rivalry but has been surviving with close calls and fourth-quarter comebacks the past few meetings. Kansas enters as the favorite for the first time since 2009 and wants to break in their renovated stadium with a statement win.
The state title is on the line in Lawrence, Kansas (10 a.m. MDT, TNT).
Game Grader
(Opponent-adjusted statistical dominance via Pick Six Previews)
3-year average (2022-24): Kansas 53.4 (27th of 68 Power 4) | Kansas State 66.1 (11th)
2024 season: Kansas 53.0 (32nd) | Kansas State 61.3 (20th)
2025 season: Kansas 51.0 (43rd) | Kansas State 50.9 (44th)
My Game Grader formula is a measure of statistical dominance that adjusts for opponent strength and is a key piece of my preseason and in-season evaluation.
In my annual season preview magazine Pick Six Previews, I selected Kansas to finish 12th and outside of the Big 12 title race. The 2024 season was supposed to be the big year with a veteran roster, and heading into 2025 they had to replace that giant senior class, both coordinators, and the school’s all-time rushing champ.
So far they have slightly exceeded those expectations and earned league wins over the two coaching change teams UCF and West Virginia. They lost to their other rival Missouri in the Border War 42-31 (-340 yards), lost a shootout to Cincinnati (37-34) and got blown out by Texas Tech.
At Big 12 media days, the coaches selected Kansas State as their preseason pick to win the conference. I disagreed and went against the crowd by lowering them to sixth in the Big 12 forecast. So far, they already lost four games — two in Big 12 play — and are 1-4 in one-score games.
They needed a late comeback to survive against FCS North Dakota.
The teams have nearly identical Game Grader rankings, and are ranked 43rd and 44th of the 68 Power Four teams.
Kansas with the ball
(Opponent-adjusted metrics, per Pick Six Previews)
Kansas offense: 6th of 68 Power 4 Teams, 3 rd Passing, 26th Rushing
Kansas State defense: 44th of 68 Power 4 Teams, 34th Pass Defense, 48th Rush Defense
In his sixth season, quarterback Jalon Daniels saved his best for last. So far, he leads the entire Big 12 in QB rating, and is the only one in the league’s top four in all key categories: QB rating, yards per attempt, touchdowns, and completion percentage.
Those stats don’t account for his pocket elusiveness and scrambles that extend plays and free up the receivers.
Kansas had the most veteran receiver room in America last season, lost them all this offseason, but found a new star to build around in Alabama transfer Emmanuel Henderson. He ranks fourth in the Big 12 with 76 yards per game, and leads the league in per-catch average (min. 30 receptions).
The Kansas State defense has struggled this season, allowing 27 points per game, nearly 400 yards, and ranks below-average in both my opponent-adjusted rushing and passing defense stats. Kansas should be successful in consistently moving the ball and in hitting some explosive pass plays.
Kansas State with the ball
(Opponent-adjusted metrics, per Pick Six Previews)
Kansas State offense: 41st of 68 Power 4 Teams, 37th Passing, 31st Rushing
Kansas defense: 33rd of 68 Power 4 Teams, 17th Pass Defense, 54th Rush Defense
Avery Johnson entered 2025 with legit consideration for All-Big 12, but the second-year starter has regressed and ranks 12th in QB rating on the Big 12 leaderboard. Though he has thrown just two picks, one of them was extremely costly against Baylor, in a spot where they were icing the game he threw a pick six that flipped a likely win to a loss.
He bounced back last game with his best of the season, a three-touchdown (no pick) game to beat TCU 41-28.
The offense has been missing their explosive running back Dylan Edwards, who suffered an injury in the opener and has not fully broken out. Without Edwards at full strength, the offense pivoted to a more pass-heavy approach, which is uncommon for Kansas State.
They throw the ball on 50% of plays, which may not sound high, but is the 12th most pass-heavy play-calling in Power Four. That feeds right into the strength of the Kansas defense, which ranks No. 17 in Power Four in my opponent- adjusted pass defense stat.
Game prediction
My Game Grader formula has these teams virtually tied in the season-long ranking, which would compute a Kansas win projection of about 3 points (depending on how you view home-field advantage in Lawrence).
However, my other offense/defense opponent-adjusted stats tilt heavily in Kansas’ direction. That leads me to favor the hometown Jayhawks by a touchdown, where they will finally snap one of the nation’s longest rivalry streaks.
Kansas 31 | Kansas State 24
