Week 11 of the college football season should give us some separation in the Big 12 race and pave a path for many other contenders in conference races. Throughout Saturday’s slate, Sports Illustrated will give an updated look at the playoff seeding and matchups. Here’s everything you need to know about the current CFP race:
Update at 7:30 p.m. ET Saturday:
We’re at the point in the season where teams, even in a sport like this one, can pretty much lock up their College Football Playoff berths. As we cruise into the prime-time window in Week 11, that consists of approximately three programs: Ohio State, Indiana and Texas A&M.
For the two Big Ten teams, they remain on a collision course for the conference title game. The Buckeyes have UCLA and Rutgers (both unlikely to make a bowl) at the Horseshoe before going to Ann Arbor, Mich., to take on rival Michigan. Even if they were to lose to the Wolverines or, inconceivably, lose two of their final three, they should be in the field given the level of dominance they’ve displayed so far. The Hoosiers have a home game against Wisconsin and a regular-season finale against Purdue—two teams at the bottom of the standings in the Big Ten. Splitting those, after the remarkable escape from Happy Valley, should be plenty to lock up a berth in the CFP.
Then there are the Aggies, who notched their third road win against a ranked team (at the time) this season by topping Missouri in impressive fashion. They close the regular season with two home games against South Carolina and Samford, plus a trip to Texas. Even splitting or losing to both of those SEC teams gets them in the field at 10–2 given how much that win over Notre Dame could be a tiebreaker against the Irish or any of the other two-loss sides in their own conference. As is, what they’ve shown so far should be enough to bump them up to No. 2 in the CFP’s Top 25 on Tuesday and throw the program into newly charted territory with a trip to Atlanta in their grasp.
Update at 3:30 p.m. ET Saturday:
Texas Tech entered the weekend as the favorite pick to be the class of the Big 12 despite checking in one spot behind BYU in the CFP selection committee’s initial rankings. That thinking was confirmed Saturday with the Red Raiders’ convincing win Saturday in Lubbock to knock the Cougars from the ranks of the undefeated. It should also spark a revisit to how high the team’s ceiling is.
Making it to Arlington, Texas, for Texas Tech’s first Big 12 championship game seems virtually assured at this point. This looks like a group more than capable of reaching a playoff semifinal, too—if the Red Raiders can tidy up things in the red zone.
The way the 29–7 loss played out for BYU didn’t completely eliminate Kalani Sitake’s team from either the conference championship race or the playoff picture. However, it significantly damages the Cougars’ outlook for both in the perception battle. We’ll see what the committee thinks on Tuesday, but the initial read is that they are overly reliant on the eye test. That could put the Cougars directly up against a Texas team which was the last at-large team out. Right now, the résumé and eye test may favor the Longhorns even with a bye this week. That’s not what fans in Provo, Utah, would like to hear following their first loss of the season, but it speaks to the slim margins the Big 12 has to place more than the league leader into the bracket.
If it helps for commissioner Brett Yormark’s conference though, at least that extra spot isn’t being taken up by an ACC team as that league appears to also be locked into a single bid following the conclusion of the noon ET window Saturday.
Update at 12:45 a.m. ET Saturday:
It took only three days for the committee’s rankings to need an update as Memphis couldn’t complete the comeback against Tulane in a Friday night classic in the American. That hands the baton back over to South Florida as one of the favorites to host the conference championship game and potentially secure that elusive Group of 5 bid to the College Football Playoff. North Texas, Navy, Tulane and East Carolina remain in the hunt as well with just one loss in league play, but the Bulls have the superior résumé and have been hammering just about everybody else in the conference.
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- Ohio State
- Texas A&M
- Indiana
- Alabama
- Georgia
- Mississippi
- Texas Tech
- Oregon
- Notre Dame
- Texas
- Virginia
- South Florida
There was no let down for Kirby Smart’s team on their final trip out of the state during the regular season, falling behind early in the first quarter but pretty much running right over Mississippi State the rest of the day. Onward to next week’s meeting between the hedges with Texas that should tell us a lot about each team’s ability to do more than just make the field this postseason.
The Cavaliers hopefully are not taking their place as the ACC leader in the rankings too seriously in a big spot this weekend against a very pesky Wake Forest team and just ahead of a difficult trip to Duke. As for the Rebels, they have a nice FCS breather before the Lane Kiffin bowl takes place next week against Florida.
There was a lot made about the Red Raiders hosting their biggest game in decades this week in Lubbock against BYU, dating back to their upset of Texas back in 2008. Well, could you imagine how bonkers the town would be if the rival Longhorns came into town for a playoff game? There may be a few tortillas that could be thrown in that case as Steve Sarkisian’s crew sneak into the field over the Cougars on their off week by the slimmest of margins.
There’s a distinctive old school vs. new school vibe to this potential playoff game, which would pit two of the best young coaches in the sport against each other, too. The Ducks have to thank their lucky stars they survived that rainy trip to Iowa City, but there are growing concerns about the team’s offense with so many pass catchers suffering injuries.
Facing off against an interim coach takes some of the bite out of one of the SEC’s best rivalries but you know that the Tide will be taking LSU seriously on Saturday night. At this point, Bama has to hope some of the teams they beat earlier in the season don’t keep losing or else that stellar resume doesn’t look quite as good as it once did.
The Hoosiers may well have won twice in Happy Valley, not only notching their first victory at Penn State but also locking up a trip to New York—if not the trophy itself—for quarterback Fernando Mendoza after a drive for the ages to remain undefeated.
Are we at the point in the season where that dreaded Aggies slip-up simply doesn’t materialize and it’s time to turn the conversation toward this group actually being capable of winning it all? After thumping Missouri in Columbia, Mo., it might be the topic of conversation around the SEC to debate just how high a ceiling Mike Elko’s team has.
Jeremiah Smith, pretty good at football. Julian Sayin, pretty good at football. Carnell Tate, even when not playing, and Caleb Downs—the same. With a few more warmups at the Horseshoe before going to Michigan, it might be worth wondering what kind of an all-time run the Buckeyes might be able to accomplish.
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